Who will win on April 26th? (D)

[ElectionsGuy]

Clinton sweep.

Safe Clinton: MD
Likely Clinton: DE, PA
Lean Clinton: CT
Toss-Up: RI

[PeteB]

Clinton will win nearly all of them.  Sanders has a very small chance in CT and a slightly higher chance in RI.  I gave him the RI vote anyway.

[CivicParticipant]

Clinton- PA, CT, MD, DE
Sanders- RI

[Tender Branson]

It's going to be a Hillary-sweep, but Bernie should definitely stay in and compete until all states have voted.

[°Leprechaun's Rainbow]

I didn't want to vote for Clinton. So I abstained on DE and MD. I don't know about DE, but MD seems strongly for Clinton at this point. I voted Sanders for the other three states. Maybe he won't win Pennsylvania, but who really knows.?

His best case is to break even on delegates or even do a little better, although that may be unrealistic. No matter how well he does, it won't get him the nomination, so do any of these predictions really matter?

It is mathematically impossible for Clinton to get to 2026 pledged delegates in April and highly improbable that she will get there before June 7. It is highly improbable that she will actually win the nomination before the Convention (by getting 2383 pledged delegates) and certainly unless Sanders gets to 2026 pledged delegates, which is becoming increasingly unlikely, he will not be the nominee.

[°Leprechaun's Rainbow]

It's going to be a Hillary-sweep, but Bernie should definitely stay in and compete until all states have voted.

Yes, and it will be interesting to see how DC votes on June 14 assuming Clinton goes over the top a week prior. (probably strong for Clinton which will be sort of funny in a way if their votes don't really matter)

[Holmes]

Clinton will at least the first four, and probably Rhode Island too.

It's going to be a Hillary-sweep, but Bernie should definitely stay in and compete until all states have voted.

Yes, and it will be interesting to see how DC votes on June 14 assuming Clinton goes over the top a week prior. (probably strong for Clinton which will be sort of funny in a way if their votes don't really matter)

DC will be 75%+ Clinton no matter what.

[°Leprechaun's Rainbow]

Winning only Rhode Island would be a disaster for Sanders, especially if his delegate gap gets worse, which of course it would. It will be interesting to see if Pennsylvania will be close. It could be another Michigan, but there is no reason to think that it will. It would be a nice surprise, but not enough of course. Somehow, I don't think he will win it by one vote, so my vote is not going to be enough to swing it; darn.

[beaver2.0]

Sanders only gets Rhode Island.

[IceSpear]

I think he'll win RI because of this:

Also, I now have a feeling he's going to win RI. It's the only open primary on the 26th, so he'll probably pour loads of resources into it to avoid a sweep. Hillary probably won't respond in kind since it's worth so few delegates.

Hillary will win the rest, though I think he has a better chance in CT than many are giving him credit for.

[Illiniwek]

Clinton sweep.

Safe Clinton: MD
Likely Clinton: DE, PA
Lean Clinton: CT
Toss-Up: RI

[Blue3]

Rhode Island is semi-open primary. If an Independent voted in a GOP primary last time then they were automatically registered as a Republican, and had until the beginning of this month to change their party affiliation (but many in that situation might not know that).

I still think Hillary wins RI. She won over Obama in 2008. And aside from a few Facebook acquaintances, most I know are voting for Hillary.

[IceSpear]

Rhode Island is semi-open primary. If an Independent voted in a GOP primary last time then they were automatically registered as a Republican, and had until the beginning of this month to change their party affiliation (but many in that situation might not know that).

Interesting....I had no idea about that.

[Blue3]

Rhode Island is semi-open primary. If an Independent voted in a GOP primary last time then they were automatically registered as a Republican, and had until the beginning of this month to change their party affiliation (but many in that situation might not know that).

Interesting....I had no idea about that.

Yeah. So, for example, I registered as an Independent when I turned 18 in 2007. I voted in the Democratic Primary in 2008, and that registered me as a Democrat (which I didn't even know until like 2 years later). It would be very easy for me to register as an Independent again (or Republican), I would just need to do it about a month before the primary.

[ElectionsGuy]

Bump in advance of tomorrow.

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

Clintonis heavily favored in DE, MD, and PA. CT and RI will probably be closer. I think Clinton is slightly favored in CT, but I have no idea about RI. There are reasons to think Clinton will win, and reasons to think Sanders will win. I'll guess a tiny Sanders win, but I could be wrong.

[syntaxerror]

I didn't want to vote for Clinton. So I abstained on DE and MD. I don't know about DE, but MD seems strongly for Clinton at this point. I voted Sanders for the other three states. Maybe he won't win Pennsylvania, but who really knows.?

His best case is to break even on delegates or even do a little better, although that may be unrealistic. No matter how well he does, it won't get him the nomination, so do any of these predictions really matter?

It is mathematically impossible for Clinton to get to 2026 pledged delegates in April and highly improbable that she will get there before June 7. It is highly improbable that she will actually win the nomination before the Convention (by getting 2383 pledged delegates) and certainly unless Sanders gets to 2026 pledged delegates, which is becoming increasingly unlikely, he will not be the nominee.

Just curious: Will you vote Clinton in GE?

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Think Clinton has a good chance of sweeping; Bernie has a shot at Rhode though.

[The Other Castro]

I think Sanders will get RI, and there's an outside chance for him in CT. The rest should be big Clinton wins.

[BoJack Horseman]

I'm going out on a limb and saying Clinton will sweep Sanders again.

[NerdyBohemian]

Hillary sweep. CT will be closest.

[ElectionsGuy]

Connecticut: 86-14 Clinton
Delaware: 91-9 Clinton
Maryland: 98-2 Clinton
Pennsylvania: 97-3 Clinton
Rhode Island: 59-41 Clinton

Thanks to everybody who participated.

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

I changed my prediction to a Sanders squeaker in RI at the last second. I would never have guessed that he would win by double digits. #OKRedux