Who will win on April 26th? (R)
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  Who will win on April 26th? (R)		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: Who will win in the following states?
#1
Connecticut - Trump		  
#2
Connecticut - Cruz		  
#3
Connecticut - Kasich		  
#4
Delaware - Trump		  
#5
Delaware - Cruz		  
#6
Delaware - Kasich		  
#7
Maryland - Trump		  
#8
Maryland - Cruz		  
#9
Maryland - Kasich		  
#10
Pennsylvania - Trump		  
#11
Pennsylvania - Cruz		  
#12
Pennsylvania - Kasich		  
#13
Rhode Island - Trump		  
#14
Rhode Island - Cruz		  
#15
Rhode Island - Kasich		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 51

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Author Topic: Who will win on April 26th? (R)  (Read 2351 times)
ElectionsGuy
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« on: April 20, 2016, 11:55:53 AM »
Trump sweep.

Safe Trump: CT, DE, RI
Likely Trump: MD, PA
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standwrand
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« Reply #1 on: April 20, 2016, 11:57:15 AM »
Safe Trump for all
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Beef
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« Reply #2 on: April 20, 2016, 12:01:14 PM »
Trump Train runs full steam to Indiana.  There's a reason he's rallying a couple of miles from me today.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #3 on: April 20, 2016, 12:05:31 PM »
Whether Trump hits 50% in CT will be a nail biter, but otherwise, he will win every state comfortably.
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #4 on: April 20, 2016, 12:08:29 PM »
Trump sweeps easily. Mid-40s in PA and MD, 50s in RI, DE, and probably CT.
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dax00
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« Reply #5 on: April 20, 2016, 12:26:34 PM »
40s in PA, MD, DE; 50s in CT; 60s in RI - Trump wins all.
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PeteB
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« Reply #6 on: April 20, 2016, 12:27:39 PM »
RI, CT and DE are Safe Trump.

If Kasich and Cruz split the vote, than Trump also easily wins MD and PA.  

If Cruz vote collapses in Kasich's favor, then PA and MD become Lean Trump / Tossup.

A Kasich possible collapse in MD and PA probably benefits Trump more than Cruz, and would result in an easy Trump win.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #7 on: April 20, 2016, 12:46:02 PM »
TRUMP is gonna win all the states pretty easily. I hope this gives himenough momentum to win Indiana and then GOP race is over once and for all.
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Holmes
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« Reply #8 on: April 20, 2016, 12:59:33 PM »
Trump sweep.

Quote from: Ronnie on April 20, 2016, 12:05:31 PM
Whether Trump hits 50% in CT will be a nail biter, but otherwise, he will win every state comfortably.

This, although I think Trump will get over 50%, and whether Trump gets 38, 35 or 32 delegates in Maryland. The Democratic gerrymander will probably help him get 35.
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beaver2.0
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« Reply #9 on: April 20, 2016, 01:39:58 PM »
All Trump.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #10 on: April 20, 2016, 01:45:31 PM »
I think Maryland will be closer than expected, and Trump will be held just under 50 in CT.
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Blue3
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« Reply #11 on: April 20, 2016, 01:47:07 PM »
Trump for all, I'm only iffy about Connecticut (they're more of an anti-populist state).
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Volrath50
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« Reply #12 on: April 20, 2016, 02:37:40 PM »
It will be a Trumping to remember.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #13 on: April 25, 2016, 03:20:25 PM »
Bump in advance of tomorrow.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #14 on: April 25, 2016, 03:23:13 PM »
Trump sweep.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #15 on: April 25, 2016, 03:23:24 PM »
All five are safe Trump.  I now just wonder if he'll reach 50% in all of them.
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Holmes
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« Reply #16 on: April 25, 2016, 03:53:59 PM »
Quote from: Ronnie on April 25, 2016, 03:23:24 PM
All five are safe Trump.  I now just wonder if he'll reach 50% in all of them.

My guess is that Maryland will be his worst results of the night at around 44-45% and Pennsylvania will be 47-48%.
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john cage bubblegum
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« Reply #17 on: April 25, 2016, 04:10:47 PM »
There isn't much drama on the Republican side in terms of who will win.  Trump will win all 5 states, probably all by double digits.

The main "drama" will be whether Trump crosses the 50% threshold in CT (looking likely at this point), and those 2-3 Maryland CDs where Trump is vulnerable.  If Trump has a really big night, he also might be able to keep Cruz under the 10% threshold in at least 1 RI congressional district.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #18 on: April 25, 2016, 05:09:58 PM »
« Edited: April 25, 2016, 05:36:01 PM by Ronnie »
Quote from: Holmes on April 25, 2016, 03:53:59 PM
Quote from: Ronnie on April 25, 2016, 03:23:24 PM
All five are safe Trump.  I now just wonder if he'll reach 50% in all of them.

My guess is that Maryland will be his worst results of the night at around 44-45% and Pennsylvania will be 47-48%.

If the PPP polls they released this morning are at all accurate, then it seems Trump received a sizable bounce throughout the region since his New York romp.  I don't think getting into the high forties or low fifties in Maryland is out of the question for Trump.

Edit: N seems to agree with me: http://election.princeton.edu/2016/04/22/two-ways-to-estimate-primary-outcomes-without-polls/
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Vosem
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« Reply #19 on: April 25, 2016, 05:15:11 PM »
Obviously trump gets first place in all, though I would say it's 50/50 as to whether he eclipses 50% of delegates in Rhode Island and we have no earthly idea what the "actual" result will be in Pennsylvania.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #20 on: April 26, 2016, 11:42:37 PM »
Connecticut: 94-4-2 Trump, Kasich, Cruz
Delaware: 92-6-2 Trump, Kasich, Cruz
Maryland: 88-10-2 Trump, Kasich, Cruz
Pennsylvania: 96-2-2 Trump
Rhode Island: 88-10-2 Trump, Kasich, Cruz

Thanks to everybody who participated.
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