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March 05, 2021, 05:21:21 PM
Talk Elections
Election Archive
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2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls
PA-Franklin&Marshall:D: Clinton 58% Sanders 31%;R: Trump 40% Cruz 26% Kasich 24%
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Topic: PA-Franklin&Marshall:D: Clinton 58% Sanders 31%;R: Trump 40% Cruz 26% Kasich 24% (Read 1230 times)
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
Posts: 42,756
PA-Franklin&Marshall:D: Clinton 58% Sanders 31%;R: Trump 40% Cruz 26% Kasich 24%
«
on:
April 21, 2016, 09:16:50 AM »
«
edited:
April 21, 2016, 05:46:06 PM
by
Mr. Morden »
Franklin & Marshall poll of Pennsylvania, conducted April 11-18:
http://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/746493212120738645-f-m-poll-release-april-2016.pdf
Dems
Clinton 58%
Sanders 31%
GOP
Trump 40%
Cruz 26%
Kasich 24%
Logged
Joshua
Jr. Member
Posts: 1,655
Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: -5.91
Re: PA-Franklin&Marshall:D: Clinton 58% Sanders 31%;R: Trump 40% Cruz 26% Kasich 24%
«
Reply #1 on:
April 21, 2016, 09:17:26 AM »
lol
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Lief 🐋
Lief
Atlas Legend
Posts: 42,130
Re: PA-Franklin&Marshall:D: Clinton 58% Sanders 31%;R: Trump 40% Cruz 26% Kasich 24%
«
Reply #2 on:
April 21, 2016, 09:58:00 AM »
WOW! Beautiful!
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Star
Posts: 23,871
Political Matrix
E: -6.26, S: -4.96
Re: PA-Franklin&Marshall:D: Clinton 58% Sanders 31%;R: Trump 40% Cruz 26% Kasich 24%
«
Reply #3 on:
April 21, 2016, 10:07:47 AM »
11% under 35? Junk.
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Holmes
Atlas Icon
Posts: 12,777
Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74
Re: PA-Franklin&Marshall:D: Clinton 58% Sanders 31%;R: Trump 40% Cruz 26% Kasich 24%
«
Reply #4 on:
April 21, 2016, 10:54:28 AM »
I feel like it'll be a bit closer on the Democratic side and a bit wider on the Republican side
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Shadows
YaBB God
Posts: 4,934
Re: PA-Franklin&Marshall:D: Clinton 58% Sanders 31%;R: Trump 40% Cruz 26% Kasich 24%
«
Reply #5 on:
April 21, 2016, 11:33:37 AM »
Over-estimates Sanders, Hilldawg will get 70-75% of the votes. Hilldawg sweep!
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Holmes
Atlas Icon
Posts: 12,777
Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74
Re: PA-Franklin&Marshall:D: Clinton 58% Sanders 31%;R: Trump 40% Cruz 26% Kasich 24%
«
Reply #6 on:
April 21, 2016, 11:33:59 AM »
Quote from: Shadows on April 21, 2016, 11:33:37 AM
Over-estimates Sanders, Hilldawg will get 70-75% of the votes. Hilldawg sweep!
True that.
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RJEvans
MasterRegal
Jr. Member
Posts: 496
Re: PA-Franklin&Marshall:D: Clinton 58% Sanders 31%;R: Trump 40% Cruz 26% Kasich 24%
«
Reply #7 on:
April 21, 2016, 12:00:53 PM »
The sample is WAY too old. 44% over 65 for the Dem side. 11% under 34. I imagine the polls showing this 10-15 points is right.
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America Needs Jesus Christ
ExtremeRepublican
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 9,013
Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57
Re: PA-Franklin&Marshall:D: Clinton 58% Sanders 31%;R: Trump 40% Cruz 26% Kasich 24%
«
Reply #8 on:
April 21, 2016, 12:15:12 PM »
Wow, they found a way to go to April 81st!!
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Landslide Lyndon
px75
Atlas Star
Posts: 23,183
Re: PA-Franklin&Marshall:D: Clinton 58% Sanders 31%;R: Trump 40% Cruz 26% Kasich 24%
«
Reply #9 on:
April 21, 2016, 12:19:24 PM »
FWIW, in 2008 the Dem electorate was 12% 18-29 and 22% 65+.
Also it had 14% independents and 3% Republicans.
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
Posts: 13,045
Political Matrix
E: -3.16, S: -6.52
Re: PA-Franklin&Marshall:D: Clinton 58% Sanders 31%;R: Trump 40% Cruz 26% Kasich 24%
«
Reply #10 on:
April 21, 2016, 12:47:55 PM »
He's dead Jim!
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IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
Posts: 31,939
Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43
Re: PA-Franklin&Marshall:D: Clinton 58% Sanders 31%;R: Trump 40% Cruz 26% Kasich 24%
«
Reply #11 on:
April 21, 2016, 01:09:54 PM »
Well, looks like F&M's reputation is about to take a hit.
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Ebsy
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 7,994
Re: PA-Franklin&Marshall:D: Clinton 58% Sanders 31%;R: Trump 40% Cruz 26% Kasich 24%
«
Reply #12 on:
April 21, 2016, 01:15:26 PM »
I expect it to be closer than this.
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dspNY
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,615
Re: PA-Franklin&Marshall:D: Clinton 58% Sanders 31%;R: Trump 40% Cruz 26% Kasich 24%
«
Reply #13 on:
April 21, 2016, 01:28:16 PM »
This lead is probably too big. I think Monmouth is on the money or very close to it
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A Perez
Rookie
Posts: 231
Re: PA-Franklin&Marshall:D: Clinton 58% Sanders 31%;R: Trump 40% Cruz 26% Kasich 24%
«
Reply #14 on:
April 21, 2016, 01:49:19 PM »
Quote from: Mr. Morden on April 21, 2016, 09:16:50 AM
Franklin & Marshall poll of Pennsylvania, conducted April 11-81:
This poll is bullsh**t, because April doesn't have 81 days.
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dspNY
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,615
Re: PA-Franklin&Marshall:D: Clinton 58% Sanders 31%;R: Trump 40% Cruz 26% Kasich 24%
«
Reply #15 on:
April 21, 2016, 04:51:29 PM »
Quote from: Clarko95 on April 21, 2016, 04:15:47 PM
Quote from: RJEvans on April 21, 2016, 12:00:53 PM
The sample is WAY too old. 44% over 65 for the Dem side. 11% under 34. I imagine the polls showing this 10-15 points is right.
Pennsylvania's electorate has always skewed older. This particular poll might skew that a bit more, but a 10 point race would be 55% - 45% and a 15 point race would be 57% - 42%.
Hillary getting 58% is optimistic, but entirely within reach.
2008 Democratic primary age breakdowns:
12% under 30
19% 30-44
37% 45-59
33% 60+
A plurality of that electorate voted for Bill twice and Hillary in 2008. I think a 27 point win is incredibly unrealistic but 12-15 points is certainly in the ballpark
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Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
Posts: 42,756
Re: PA-Franklin&Marshall:D: Clinton 58% Sanders 31%;R: Trump 40% Cruz 26% Kasich 24%
«
Reply #16 on:
April 22, 2016, 05:05:00 AM »
Philadelphia: Trump +10 over Cruz
Northeast: Trump +26 over Cruz
Allegheny: Kasich +6 over Trump
Southwest: Cruz/Trump tie
Northwest: Trump +26 over Cruz
Central: Trump +6 over Cruz
Southeast: Kasich +5 over Trump
fav/unfav % among their own party:
Clinton 69/25% for +44%
Sanders 66/24% for +42%
Kasich 55/25% for +30%
Trump 46/44% for +2%
Cruz 45/44% for +1%
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Vosem
Atlas Icon
Posts: 10,306
Political Matrix
E: 4.13, S: -6.26
Re: PA-Franklin&Marshall:D: Clinton 58% Sanders 31%;R: Trump 40% Cruz 26% Kasich 24%
«
Reply #17 on:
April 22, 2016, 05:08:28 AM »
I would be shocked if the Southwest is a Cruz/
trump
tie. That implies Cruz has a shot in West Virginia. Most of the rest of it looks legit.
Logged
Craziaskowboi
Rookie
Posts: 37
Re: PA-Franklin&Marshall:D: Clinton 58% Sanders 31%;R: Trump 40% Cruz 26% Kasich 24%
«
Reply #18 on:
April 22, 2016, 06:51:39 PM »
Quote from: Mr. Morden on April 22, 2016, 05:05:00 AM
Philadelphia: Trump +10 over Cruz
Northeast: Trump +26 over Cruz
Allegheny: Kasich +6 over Trump
Southwest: Cruz/Trump tie
Northwest: Trump +26 over Cruz
Central: Trump +6 over Cruz
Southeast: Kasich +5 over Trump
fav/unfav % among their own party:
Clinton 69/25% for +44%
Sanders 66/24% for +42%
Kasich 55/25% for +30%
Trump 46/44% for +2%
Cruz 45/44% for +1%
Wow, it's almost as if Allegheny County is nothing like the rest of southwestern Pennsylvania politically. Who knew?
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