CT-Quinnipiac: D: Clinton 51% Sanders 42%; R: Trump 48% Kasich 28% Cruz 19% (user search)
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  CT-Quinnipiac: D: Clinton 51% Sanders 42%; R: Trump 48% Kasich 28% Cruz 19% (search mode)
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Author Topic: CT-Quinnipiac: D: Clinton 51% Sanders 42%; R: Trump 48% Kasich 28% Cruz 19%  (Read 4494 times)
Gass3268
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« on: April 20, 2016, 10:55:42 AM »

I think it's actually possible Bernie could drop out next week, if he gets completely shellacked.

Doubtful when he'll probably win all 4 states in May.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1 on: April 20, 2016, 11:23:36 AM »

The Clinton folks have even stated they are asking or pushing for Sanders to drop out. All they want is the campaign to back off on the more recent hostile tone. Sanders owes it to his supporters to go all the way and I think everyone on the Democratic side recognizes that.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #2 on: April 20, 2016, 12:09:34 PM »

Looks bad for Trump. He absolutely needs >50%

No he doesn't, it's WTA if he gets 1 vote more than the person in 2nd.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #3 on: April 20, 2016, 12:44:35 PM »

Looks bad for Trump. He absolutely needs >50%

No he doesn't, it's WTA if he gets 1 vote more than the person in 2nd.
Are you sure?
I believe it is:
-Winner take all by CD
-but the delegates at large, you need to >50% to get all of them.

Sorry, thought this was the Delaware poll. My mistake!
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Gass3268
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« Reply #4 on: April 20, 2016, 07:17:06 PM »

I think it's actually possible Bernie could drop out next week, if he gets completely shellacked.

Doubtful when he'll probably win all 4 states in May.

The more I think about it, I don't think KY and WV are in any way comfortable for Sanders. KY is closed (remembering that in OK, Clinton still won Democrats by 9-10%), WV is semi-closed. Indiana is open, so he could absolutely win there and he'll win OR but since it's closed, the margin might be a little underwhelming and the delegate split not all that great.

Kentucky is the state I am the least certain about for Sanders, you are correct that it is a closed primary and there is obviously a decent % of African Americans, especially in Louisville. West Virginia could also be close. I think how Western PA votes could be a decent indicator for how both states vote. Indiana will be interesting. Clinton should do good in Lake County and Marion County, but I don't know any other areas in the state that would automatically go for her and I imagine the rest of the state would look like downstate Illinois. Oregon is closed, but it is also vote by mail just like the general election, so I imagine turnout should be good.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #5 on: April 20, 2016, 09:31:46 PM »

WV should actually be very interesting... I kind of expect Sanders to win it, but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Hillary win here. If she matches her performance with whites from OH, then she'll win.

Gut feeling that Ohio is going to look like an anomaly compared to the rest of the Midwest/Appalachia due the Kasich factor.

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Those voters could have been helpful for Sanders in at least making the race closer and more representative of trends we have seen in other states.
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