NBC/WSJ National Democratic Poll: Clinton leads by 2 points
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  NBC/WSJ National Democratic Poll: Clinton leads by 2 points
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Author Topic: NBC/WSJ National Democratic Poll: Clinton leads by 2 points  (Read 1860 times)
The Other Castro
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« on: April 18, 2016, 12:33:50 PM »
« edited: April 18, 2016, 12:36:33 PM by Castro »

Clinton: 50%
Sanders: 48%

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/nbc-wsj-poll-clinton-s-national-lead-down-two-points-n557671?cid=sm_tw

-Clinton leads Sanders by 15 points among women, 57 percent to 42 percent

-Clinton leads Sanders among minorities, 59 percent to 41 percent

-Clinton leads Sanders among those 50 and older, 62 percent to 35 percent

-Sanders leads among men by 17 points (58 percent to 41 percent), whites (53 percent to 44 percent) and those ages 18 to 49 (66 percent to 34 percent).

The NBC/WSJ poll was conducted April 10-14, and the margin of error among the 339 Democratic primary voters surveyed is plus-minus 5.3 percentage points.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #1 on: April 18, 2016, 12:48:13 PM »

Outside of the possibility of a large portion of people who voted for Hillary changing their minds, Im really just starting to think Sanders supporters are more likely to participate in national polls now. Shes leading the popular vote by a large margin and is about to win a host of states by large margins, this does not look like a tied race outside of national polling.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #2 on: April 18, 2016, 01:25:22 PM »

Outside of the possibility of a large portion of people who voted for Hillary changing their minds, Im really just starting to think Sanders supporters are more likely to participate in national polls now. Shes leading the popular vote by a large margin and is about to win a host of states by large margins, this does not look like a tied race outside of national polling.

It's probably a mix of the two points that you brought up (Clinton supporters switching to Sanders and Sanders supporters more likely to participate in polls), plus Sanders supporters not voting or non-voters now supporting Sanders after their primary/caucus has passed.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #3 on: April 18, 2016, 01:31:49 PM »

What's the point of these polls anymore?
In 2008 Obama was 7-10 points ahead of Hillary nationally after March but he still lost 6 out of the 9 last contests.
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jaichind
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« Reply #4 on: April 18, 2016, 01:36:58 PM »

Sanders should push for a re-vote in some of the primaries that has voted.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #5 on: April 18, 2016, 01:39:19 PM »

-Clinton leads Sanders among minorities, 59 percent to 41 percent

ayy lmao
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #6 on: April 18, 2016, 01:50:57 PM »

Outside of the possibility of a large portion of people who voted for Hillary changing their minds, Im really just starting to think Sanders supporters are more likely to participate in national polls now. Shes leading the popular vote by a large margin and is about to win a host of states by large margins, this does not look like a tied race outside of national polling.

Most of these states that she's going to win also have closed primaries. These national polls factor in independents.
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Holmes
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« Reply #7 on: April 18, 2016, 01:55:23 PM »

The fact that national polls on the Democratic side are tightening at this stage is such a kick in the balls to Sanders supporters.
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jaichind
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« Reply #8 on: April 18, 2016, 02:09:50 PM »

The fact that national polls on the Democratic side are tightening at this stage is such a kick in the balls to Sanders supporters.

Yeah.  I think Sanders in most of 2015 was not thinking of realistically winning.  He was more about trying to influence the policy mix of the Dem party. As a result he held back attacks on Clinton.  By the time he realized the had a shot (mostly in late 2015) it was too late to go into attack mode and make it stick.  All he has accomplished by going on the attack in early 2016 is to drive up Clinton's negatives which only benefits the GOP.  Of course the fact that Trump and likely Cruz's negatives are even worse than the post-Sanders attacked Clinton is just a lucky break for Dems. 
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Lyin' Steve
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« Reply #9 on: April 18, 2016, 03:37:33 PM »

I think Clinton people who already voted just don't care anymore while Sanders supporters in New Hampshire still jump at the opportunity to spend 45 minutes telling a machine how much they love Bernie.

Hillary's millions of votes ahead and is about to go up by millions more... This wasn't and isn't a close race by popular vote.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #10 on: April 18, 2016, 03:53:19 PM »

If this is a tied race then NY will be a close to a tie tomorrow. But it's not, so it won't.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #11 on: April 18, 2016, 03:55:41 PM »

If this is a tied race then NY will be a close to a tie tomorrow. But it's not, so it won't.

New York isn't an accurate national bellwether for the Democratic Primary when Independents are being disenfranchised.
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dspNY
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« Reply #12 on: April 18, 2016, 06:38:53 PM »

If this is a tied race then NY will be a close to a tie tomorrow. But it's not, so it won't.

New York isn't an accurate national bellwether for the Democratic Primary when Independents are being disenfranchised.

They're not being disenfranchised. They disenfranchised themselves by not registering Democratic. Why should Democrats allow interlopers into their primary in the first place?
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #13 on: April 18, 2016, 06:43:57 PM »

If this is a tied race then NY will be a close to a tie tomorrow. But it's not, so it won't.

New York isn't an accurate national bellwether for the Democratic Primary when Independents are being disenfranchised.

They're not being disenfranchised. They disenfranchised themselves by not registering Democratic. Why should Democrats allow interlopers into their primary in the first place?

Yeah screw Independents....but wait vote for us in the fall!! Also you had to be registered by October of last year when not close to as many people were paying attention to the election. I'm sure Sanders would win NY if it had Wisconsin's rules.
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Holmes
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« Reply #14 on: April 18, 2016, 06:53:29 PM »

The October deadline is really strict but closed primaries (and the national primary in general) are there for people to actually register, join, and become involved in the party. It's literally the exact same thing as in Canada when parties have leadership races and only card carrying members of the party are allowed to participate in the selection.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #15 on: April 18, 2016, 08:03:28 PM »

I'm sure Sanders would win NY if it had Wisconsin's rules.

rofl
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #16 on: April 18, 2016, 08:10:54 PM »

This won't last long once the NY and Mid-Atlantic steamroller starts.
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Xing
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« Reply #17 on: April 18, 2016, 09:06:38 PM »

Clinton supporters should be concerned by this. Even if Clinton has the nomination locked up, the idea that Democratic voters are reconsidering supporting her is troubling for her.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #18 on: April 19, 2016, 08:08:06 AM »

If this is a tied race then NY will be a close to a tie tomorrow. But it's not, so it won't.

New York isn't an accurate national bellwether for the Democratic Primary when Independents are being disenfranchised.

They're not being disenfranchised. They disenfranchised themselves by not registering Democratic. Why should Democrats allow interlopers into their primary in the first place?

When you have to declare for a party in October, before most people care about the primary process, you're being disenfranchised. Good news is it sounds like there might be push at the DNC to change the rules to require open primaries or at least modified closed (allowing of Independents). 
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #19 on: April 19, 2016, 08:51:13 AM »

If this is a tied race then NY will be a close to a tie tomorrow. But it's not, so it won't.

New York isn't an accurate national bellwether for the Democratic Primary when Independents are being disenfranchised.

They're not being disenfranchised. They disenfranchised themselves by not registering Democratic. Why should Democrats allow interlopers into their primary in the first place?

When you have to declare for a party in October, before most people care about the primary process, you're being disenfranchised. Good news is it sounds like there might be push at the DNC to change the rules to require open primaries or at least modified closed (allowing of Independents). 

While they're at it maybe they could get rid of caucuses, you know, the most extreme form of voter suppression currently being used? You okay with that too?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #20 on: April 19, 2016, 09:44:24 AM »

If this is a tied race then NY will be a close to a tie tomorrow. But it's not, so it won't.

New York isn't an accurate national bellwether for the Democratic Primary when Independents are being disenfranchised.

They're not being disenfranchised. They disenfranchised themselves by not registering Democratic. Why should Democrats allow interlopers into their primary in the first place?

When you have to declare for a party in October, before most people care about the primary process, you're being disenfranchised. Good news is it sounds like there might be push at the DNC to change the rules to require open primaries or at least modified closed (allowing of Independents). 

While they're at it maybe they could get rid of caucuses, you know, the most extreme form of voter suppression currently being used? You okay with that too?

I've been against caucuses since Iowa and Nevada.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #21 on: April 19, 2016, 10:01:45 AM »

People who talk about voter disenfrachisment because a primary is closed to non-members of a party obviously have no idea what the term means.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #22 on: April 19, 2016, 10:23:48 AM »

If this is a tied race then NY will be a close to a tie tomorrow. But it's not, so it won't.

New York isn't an accurate national bellwether for the Democratic Primary when Independents are being disenfranchised.

They're not being disenfranchised. They disenfranchised themselves by not registering Democratic. Why should Democrats allow interlopers into their primary in the first place?

When you have to declare for a party in October, before most people care about the primary process, you're being disenfranchised. Good news is it sounds like there might be push at the DNC to change the rules to require open primaries or at least modified closed (allowing of Independents). 

While they're at it maybe they could get rid of caucuses, you know, the most extreme form of voter suppression currently being used? You okay with that too?

I've been against caucuses since Iowa and Nevada.

Well, good then... I will save my snark for other Bernie supporters. I SAY GOOD DAY TO YOU!
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #23 on: April 19, 2016, 10:46:49 AM »

Jfc, closed primaries are not disenfranchisement. There people actually having their voting rights taken from them in this country, systematically and purposefully, and y'all are whining that the kids who were too cool to check a box on their voter registration forms are the real victims today.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #24 on: April 19, 2016, 01:24:06 PM »

Clinton supporters should be concerned by this. Even if Clinton has the nomination locked up, the idea that Democratic voters are reconsidering supporting her is troubling for her.
People who already voted don't get to vote again. That's not how elections work.
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