CBS/YouGov: Trump up big in NY/PA/CA

[Tender Branson]

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-donald-trump-keeps-large-lead-in-new-york-ahead-in-california

[yankeesfan]

Oh boy.  Those aren't good results for the Anti-Trump crowd.  Kasich needs to exit the race after the Eastern states.

[Lief 🗽]

BEAUTIFUL!

[Ronnie]

I don't think we should get worked up about that California poll.  It seems like an outlier to me.

[Sbane]

I don't think we should get worked up about that California poll.  It seems like an outlier to me.

Yeah, maybe they only polled San Bernardino County.

[Mike Thick]

I don't think we should get worked up about that California poll.  It seems like an outlier to me.

Ditto. However, Cruz really needs to keep it close here if he wants to stop him from getting to 1237.

[madelka]

The Republican party is done.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Why no Pennsylvania for the Democrats?

[Holmes]

49% in CA would probably be enough to make him the nominee.

[Mr. Morden]

12% of the Republican primary sample in California (meaning 123 people) was Hispanic, and they went:

Trump 52%
Cruz 39%
Kasich 7%

[Holmes]

12% of the Republican primary sample in California (meaning 123 people) was Hispanic, and they went:

Trump 52%
Cruz 39%
Kasich 7%

Reminds me of the NV entrance polls that showed Trump winning latinos. But we really haven't had a state with a decent amount of latinos in it that also wasn't a candidate's home state vote (and Arizona had no exit poll so who knows how many latinos voted in the GOP primary there). Maybe Republican latinos in the west... like Trump?

[Mr. Morden]

Interesting CA crosstab:

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CA is one of the few states where the majority of Republican primary voters would support a contested convention.

I just think the results on that issue are highly dependent on the question wording.  “Fight for delegates to decide the winner” sounds better than other ways you could phrase it.  Note that in the new NBC national poll, there’s a split on how people respond to the contested convention scenario depending on how you word the question:

http://www.wsj.com/articles/republican-voters-want-say-in-choosing-nominee-poll-finds-1460898000

62% say that the person with the most votes in the primaries should be the nominee, yet if you ask how people would feel about a candidate winning the nomination by “convincing delegates supporting other candidates” to back them, a majority say that would be acceptable.

[NHI]

BEAUTIFUL!

!!

[bigedlb]

My vote will matter, and it looks encouraging.

[swf541]

So if the margin in CA holds, its over isnt it?

[dspNY]

So if the margin in CA holds, its over isnt it?

He would get to 1237 or be so close (10-15 short) that a contested convention would look stupid

[Comrade Funk]

Hope Trump throws a tomato at Cruz after he locks up the nomination

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

TRUMP ! The art of the comeback!

[DemPGH]

Well, I switched from D to R (because I don't give a damn anymore who wins the D race) to throw a vote Trump's way on 4.26, but nonetheless, we see what the result is in these little inside rig jobs, so we'll see what the people say.

[Vosem]

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Throw it in the trash.

[Vosem]

Scrolling through YouGov's polling history, they're wrong a lot. They're usually more favorable to _trump than reality (forecasting a tie in Ohio with Kasich, a double-digit win in Virginia, and single-digit Cruz wins in Wisconsin and Texas rather than the double-digit landslides that took place) but they've also gotten things wrong in the other direction (they had _trump barely leading Cruz in Illinois, when in reality he won comfortably; they also had Cruz within single-digits in Georgia, where he came in third in reality) and sometimes they've just been wrong in other ways (they had _trump and Cruz correct in Michigan, but their poll released 3 days before the vote had Rubio leading Kasich for third place, contradicting all other polling in the state; the final gap ended up being 24-9 in Kasich's favor).

So, yeah. They're not actively malicious, or biased in any direction; they're just bad, and in the places they've challenged the general polling consensus, the general polling consensus has invariably turned out to be correct.

[Mr. Morden]

Apparently New York Republicans are mostly RINOs.