Will TRUMP get the required 1,237 delegates before the convention?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Do you think Trump will get the required delegates in order to be the nominee on the first ballot?

He's at 744 delegates right now with 838 delegates remaining to be picked up. He needs 59% of the remaining delegates in order to clinch the nomination. Can it be done?

[Higgs]

No. He'll be close, my guess is within 100 delegates, but I'm almost certain he doesn't get the 1,237. The real question is will he get enough to ensure shenanigans don't go down and give Cruz (or someone else maybe) the nomination.

[dspNY]

The YouGov polls from NY, PA and CA would get him close (if they were right)

[Mallow]

No. He'll be close, my guess is within 100 delegates, but I'm almost certain he doesn't get the 1,237. The real question is will he get enough to ensure shenanigans don't go down and give Cruz (or someone else maybe) the nomination.

Pretty much this. If he's at something like 1170 after June 7th, will he be able to make enough backroom deals to secure those last 70 delegates?

[Lyin' Steve]

About time someone made a thread to discuss this!

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

No. He'll be close, my guess is within 100 delegates, but I'm almost certain he doesn't get the 1,237. The real question is will he get enough to ensure shenanigans don't go down and give Cruz (or someone else maybe) the nomination.

If he's even one delegate short, the party would be well within its rights to give the nomination to someone else. It's his fault for alienating the entire rest of the field and party so much.

[Volrath50]

I think he will. I feel that if he's within 60 or so delegates, he will likely be able to make up the difference with the unpledged delegates, especially the PA loophole delegates, many of which, from what I understand, have said they will vote for who wins their CD.

[swf541]

Yes, or he will be within 20-30 and the PA delegation will push him over

[beaver2.0]

No.

[Vosem]

I think it is likelier that he does not, though Indiana remains a massive, and massively significant, question mark.

[TomC]

So, if rule 40 is kept, do Rubio, Kasich, Carson, etc delegates become unpledged or do they still have to vote for the candidate on first ballot?

[TomC]

To add: No, I think he'll be about 50-75 short unless Cruz really screws up before Cal.

[IceSpear]

No.

The real question is if he can get enough unbound ones to put him over the top.

[Vosem]

So, if rule 40 is kept, do Rubio, Kasich, Carson, etc delegates become unpledged or do they still have to vote for the candidate on first ballot?

Different states have different rules in this regard; in some states, delegates must still vote for candidates that've dropped out; in some states, delegates supporting candidates who drop out become unpledged but delegates supporting still-active candidates who don't qualify under Rule 40 do not; and in other states, both groups become unpledged. I invite you to check out erc's fantastic thread discussing the subject (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.0), and, while it is long, I recommend at least skimming the entire thread. Your understanding of delegate rules, on both sides, will become tremendously clearer.

Also, welcome to the Forum!

[TomC]

Thanks! I've seen the thread, but good to review!

Also, I appreciate the warm welcome, but I was one of the first ones here

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[SillyAmerican]

No. He'll be close, my guess is within 100 delegates, but I'm almost certain he doesn't get the 1,237. The real question is will he get enough to ensure shenanigans don't go down and give Cruz (or someone else maybe) the nomination.

Yes, I think he'll be a little short of 1237 on June 8th. So the real question is whether or not he'll be able to pick up the remainder of what's needed prior to July 18th. If he's within 100 delegates, my guess is that he manages to somehow secure the necessary votes to secure a first ballot nomination; any larger gap in delegate count, and all bets are off.

[Vosem]

Thanks! I've seen the thread, but good to review!

Also, I appreciate the warm welcome, but I was one of the first ones here

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Oh, sorry

Haven't seen you around in a while, in that case.

[Wisconsin+17]

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Indiana is crucial. Even if he sweeps every NE state, and gets 160/172 in California, he falls short.

That's the trouble for Trump. He's almost ran himself out of blue states.

[Erc]

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Indiana is crucial. Even if he sweeps every NE state, and gets 160/172 in California, he falls short.

That's the trouble for Trump. He's almost ran himself out of blue states.

If he wins that big in California, unpledged delegates from PA would put him over the top, most likely.

[wolfsblood07]

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Indiana is crucial. Even if he sweeps every NE state, and gets 160/172 in California, he falls short.

That's the trouble for Trump. He's almost ran himself out of blue states.

I think if Trump gets within 150, he'll likely get the rest on the first ballot.  Trump is going to romp in the next few weeks, and I won't be surprised if he clinches it before the convention.  And will the party have the stomach, the gonads, to take this from him?  Risk riots?  Risk putting up a different nominee and losing anyway?

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

The YouGov polls from NY, PA and CA would get him close (if they were right)

If those polls are accurate, he'd be a heavy favorite to clear 1,237 pledged. I'm sure there will also be a non-trivial amount of uncommitted who will vote for him in the end. Green Papers is estimating around ~20 at the moment; I wouldn't be surprised if he could squeeze another 20 on top of that (especially with the Pennsylvania pledges to vote for state/district winner).

[Fargobison]

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Indiana is crucial. Even if he sweeps every NE state, and gets 160/172 in California, he falls short.

That's the trouble for Trump. He's almost ran himself out of blue states.

I think if Trump gets within 150, he'll likely get the rest on the first ballot.  Trump is going to romp in the next few weeks, and I won't be surprised if he clinches it before the convention.  And will the party have the stomach, the gonads, to take this from him?  Risk riots?  Risk putting up a different nominee and losing anyway?

I think he needs to get within 50. If he is 150 short, he may as well just stay home in NY.

I don't think the GOP is afraid at all to deny him the majority. He only continues to burn bridges within the party.

[ElectionsGuy]

I'm using 538's Get Trump to 1237 tool for this

He gets 90/95 in New York, sweeps Connecticut with a majority, wins Delaware, wins Maryland and all its congressional districts, gets 11/19 in Rhode Island (proportional), all 17 WTA for Pennsylvania, loses Indiana but gets 9 delegates (3 congressional districts), wins all of West Virginia, loses Nebraska, South Dakota, Montana, gets 40% of delegates from Oregon/Washington/New Mexico (all proportional), wins New Jersey, then wins California and gets 35/53 congressional districts (118 delegates). On top of this, Trump gets 30 unbound delegates out of 129, mostly from Pennsylvania but could also be from the territories. This gets him to about 1239 and thus the nomination.

What do you think? Doable. I think that is a very doable situation. Winning a state like Indiana or Montana will definitely increase his odds of being the nominee too.

[Fargobison]

I'm using 538's Get Trump to 1237 tool for this

He gets 90/95 in New York, sweeps Connecticut with a majority, wins Delaware, wins Maryland and all its congressional districts, gets 11/19 in Rhode Island (proportional), all 17 WTA for Pennsylvania, loses Indiana but gets 9 delegates (3 congressional districts), wins all of West Virginia, loses Nebraska, South Dakota, Montana, gets 40% of delegates from Oregon/Washington/New Mexico (all proportional), wins New Jersey, then wins California and gets 35/53 congressional districts (118 delegates). On top of this, Trump gets 30 unbound delegates out of 129, mostly from Pennsylvania but could also be from the territories. This gets him to about 1239 and thus the nomination.

What do you think? Doable. I think that is a very doable situation. Winning a state like Indiana or Montana will definitely increase his odds of being the nominee too.

I thought WV's screwy rules made it impossible to get all the delegates?

[Meclazine for Israel]

Same as IceSpear.

He will be short. In answer to the question, he will get the remaining votes he needs from unpledged delegates.