Who will be Pennsylvania's 2 Senators in 2011?

[nini2287]

I'm going to say Casey and Schwartz (who wins a very close race against Toomey or Hart-the other one of which will run for Gov.)

[TeePee4Prez]

Hopefully, Casey/Schwartz.  Dark horses: Melissa Hart, Jennifer Mann, Chris Heinz.

[bullmoose88]

Dent seems primed to carry specter's mantra...(now that greenwood isn't a possibility)...

casey takes santorum's seat (as of right now)

[TeePee4Prez]

Dent seems primed to carry specter's mantra...(now that greenwood isn't a possibility)...

casey takes santorum's seat (as of right now)

I think Dent could be a contender as well.  So could Schwartz just as well.  Thing with Dent is he would carry the Lehigh Valley making it very difficult for Schwartz to overcome.  In a Schwartz v. Dent 2010 scenario, I'd have to concede Dent in that case.  Schwartz-Toomey, I'm going to go Schwartz to win, but the unions must quell Catholic union members from going with Toomey, which is possible.  NARAL and EMILY's List are powerful organizations.

[nini2287]

Dent seems primed to carry specter's mantra...(now that greenwood isn't a possibility)...

casey takes santorum's seat (as of right now)

I think Dent could be a contender as well.  So could Schwartz just as well.  Thing with Dent is he would carry the Lehigh Valley making it very difficult for Schwartz to overcome.  In a Schwartz v. Dent 2010 scenario, I'd have to concede Dent in that case.  Schwartz-Toomey, I'm going to go Schwartz to win, but the unions must quell Catholic union members from going with Toomey, which is possible.  NARAL and EMILY's List are powerful organizations.

Dent vs. Schwartz would be a very intersting race.  I think Schwartz would win if a pro-lifer from Western PA jumped into the race as an Independent, that might cut down on Dent's margins in the West and the T

[TeePee4Prez]

I never thought of a pro-life Constitution party candidate cutting down Dent's margin, but I can forsee a race like that coming to fruition.  I agree, Schwartz would win in thatn case. 

[bullmoose88]

Ah well...I'm still hoping for a Greenwood comeback in the form of a US Senate run.

[Keystone Phil]

If Casey wins in 2006, he's just going to run for Governor anyway.

If Santorum wins, he'll run for President and if he wins that race, the seat is open. Now with a Dem Governor his appointment would likely be Barbara Hafer however there would be a Special election and I could see her going down there. With a Republican Governor, the appointment could go to a number of people but I went with Melissa Hart.

Toomey runs in 2010 (I don't think anyone is doubting that) and beats Schwartz. The Republicans will know not to go with Dent (and with Toomey in the race, he'll know not to run).

[minionofmidas]

Dent vs Toomey would make for a *very* interesting primary.

[Moooooo]

Former Rep. Pat Toomey
Former Rep. Joe Hoeffel

[TheresNoMoney]

Besides Casey, who is the most popular Democratic contender in the state?

[TheresNoMoney]

Specter almost definitely won't serve out his full six-year term (until 2010). Unfortunately, there's a good chance that he won't live that long.

[Jake]

Santorum and Rooney

Santorum wins in 2006, Specter retires later in 2007 and is replaced by Hafer, Hafer loses the special election in 2008 to Pat Toomey, TJ Rooney defeats Pat Toomey in 2010.

[WalterMitty]

santorum and toomey.

[TeePee4Prez]

santorum and toomey.

God help us if that were to ever happen.  Knowing the PA Dems ineptitude, it's possible.

[bullmoose88]

santorum and toomey.

God help us if that were to ever happen.  Knowing the PA Dems ineptitude, it's possible.

Its amazing the democrats carry PA at all.

No offense, but you guys have one of the most dysfunctional state parties in the country.

Accomplishments...

Governor who used his local popularity rather than ideology or party ID to win.

Barely won the state for your national nominee.

Minority in the US house delegation, no senators, minority party in both state houses.

Gah.

[TeePee4Prez]

santorum and toomey.

God help us if that were to ever happen.  Knowing the PA Dems ineptitude, it's possible.

Its amazing the democrats carry PA at all.

No offense, but you guys have one of the most dysfunctional state parties in the country.

Accomplishments...

Governor who used his local popularity rather than ideology or party ID to win.

Barely won the state for your national nominee.

Minority in the US house delegation, no senators, minority party in both state houses.

Gah.

We still have a 5 point registration advantage, but we don't bring them out on Election Day.  It has also been polled that PA leans pro-choice, opposes Bush's plan on SS, will side with labor over big business, yet on paper we're a fiasco.  We elect people to the right of what we are because they are somehow more prim, polished, and dapper.  Have you ever driven through State Rep. John Taylor's district in Philly?  It's astonishing how he is immensely popular in such a working class district and his union voting record is somewhat to the left for a Republican, but still the district is 70% Dem.  Supposedly a Dem committeemen told me the party in NE Philly self destructed in the early 1980s giving a lot of 20-something GOPers fresh starts in the State House, which all but one are in there today.   

[Cashcow]

Allyson Schwartz and Chris Heinz lolol

[bullmoose88]

santorum and toomey.

God help us if that were to ever happen.  Knowing the PA Dems ineptitude, it's possible.

Its amazing the democrats carry PA at all.

No offense, but you guys have one of the most dysfunctional state parties in the country.

Accomplishments...

Governor who used his local popularity rather than ideology or party ID to win.

Barely won the state for your national nominee.

Minority in the US house delegation, no senators, minority party in both state houses.

Gah.

We still have a 5 point registration advantage, but we don't bring them out on Election Day.  It has also been polled that PA leans pro-choice, opposes Bush's plan on SS, will side with labor over big business, yet on paper we're a fiasco.  We elect people to the right of what we are because they are somehow more prim, polished, and dapper.  Have you ever driven through State Rep. John Taylor's district in Philly?  It's astonishing how he is immensely popular in such a working class district and his union voting record is somewhat to the left for a Republican, but still the district is 70% Dem.  Supposedly a Dem committeemen told me the party in NE Philly self destructed in the early 1980s giving a lot of 20-something GOPers fresh starts in the State House, which all but one are in there today.   

Thats either a testament to the general incompetence of your state party, or (more unlikely) a testament to the fact that more people join as dems but don't really vote that way.

(Old rule of thumb...an organized minority usually, if not always, beats an unorganized majority)

[danwxman]

Tom Ridge has a lot to do with the Republican party majority in the state house and senate. He was an extremely popular Governor and he really helped out the Republican party statewide. Rendell needs to use his popularity to elect Democrats in the Southeast to seats they should be winning.

[Keystone Phil]

Dent vs Toomey would make for a *very* interesting primary.

It would never happen. Dent would know not to go anywhere near that. He'd start off with his own area against him and since he's not Specter, he wouldn't be able to pull it out.

[Keystone Phil]

Tom Ridge has a lot to do with the Republican party majority in the state house and senate. He was an extremely popular Governor and he really helped out the Republican party statewide. Rendell needs to use his popularity to elect Democrats in the Southeast to seats they should be winning.

He tried in 2002 and 2004 and didn't get far.

[Keystone Phil]

Something we all have to realize: None of us can be all that accurate in our predictions. There are too many situations that could happen. Who is Governor after 2006? If Casey wins in 2006 and runs for Governor, who would he appoint? Would Rendell's appointment to Specter's seat (if he dies or resigns) win the Special election? If the GOP wins the Governor's race and appoints someone to Specter's seat, who do they go with? Would Toomey be in line as a replacement or does he want to wait until 2010?

Too many questions. Too many scenarios.

[TheresNoMoney]

Phil, why are you so sure Casey will run for governor?

[Keystone Phil]

Phil, why are you so sure Casey will run for governor?

Everyone involved in politics in PA knows that that's his dream job. Also, he didn't want to run for Senate to begin with. It took the party's begging for him to run for him to change his mind. Plus, I'm sure they threw in that he can run in 2006, beat Santorum, run for Governor in 2010 and just appoint his replacement, too. Casey doesn't lose.