MHS2002
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,642
Political Matrix
E: 0.90, S: 1.57
|
 |
« Reply #1 on: June 07, 2005, 08:11:46 PM » |
|
OK, as promised, my Russ Potts rant. This has probably been posted in other places before, but here it is, once again.
Russ Potts is my state Senator, elected from one of the most conservative districts in Virginia (basically the Northwest corner of the state). Potts himself is more liberal (especially socially) than the district that he represents: he could be described as a RINO/liberal Republican/maverick (whatever term you prefer) As the Republican primary rolled around in the summer of 2003, Potts faced a strong primary challenge from the right from a local businessman: think Pat Toomey/Arlen Specter in a sense, except in these neck of the woods the Republican primary essentially doubles as the general election. Potts won by small margin, mainly on the basis of incumbency. He went on to win the general election easily.
In the spring of 2004 (at least that's when I think it was), Gov. Warner was pushing hard for a tax increase that he said the state needed to balance its budget. Virginia's House and Senate are controlled by Republicans; however, Warner was able to pick off enough Republicans (Potts being one of them) to support the increase. Anyway, long story short, Potts didn't exactly endear himself to many Republicans with this move.
Summer of 2004, Potts first made a mention of running for governor. The establishment essentially gave Potts the cold shoulder, and instead threw its weight behind Attorney General Jerry Kilgore. I thought this was going to be the end of Potts running for governor, but in the Fall of 2004 he decided to run as what he calls an "Independent Republican." The Republican organizations in his district essentially booted him from the party and the other Republicans in the Virginia Senate tried to strip him of his committee positions (they failed).
So...how do I think Potts will do in the general election? No more than 5%, I would think. He isn't very well known outside this area and he doesn't have a lot of cash. Essentially, his campaign just doesn't have the resources to make a dent in either Kaine or Kilgore. I would guess he'll get about 3%, enough to make somewhat of a statement but not really enough to sway the election, I think. Also, someone else is already running for Potts' Senate seat, and Potts' career as a politician has got to be dead after the gubernatorial election.
Also, as a whole, Virginia hasn't really tuned into the gubernatorial race. The main topics so far have been transportation issues (especially in the ever-expanding Northern, and now Northwestern, Virginia area), property taxes, and funding for health care and education. I don't see social issues being as much of a factor. Kaine is trying to pull a (Mark) Warner and taking a centrist stand on social issues (for instance, Kaine has stated his support for the 2nd Amendment). If the election were held today, I'd give Kilgore a slight edge, but right now, the race for the Governor's Mansion hasn't really begun yet.
|
