NY-NY1/Baruch College: TRUMP 60, Clinton +13

[Ebsy]

https://twitter.com/bobhardt/status/719662205919195138

Likely Dem:
Clinton: 50
Sanders: 37

Likely GOP:
Trump: 60
Kasich: 17
Cruz: 14

[Lief 🗽]

BEAUTIFUL!

[Eraserhead]

The polls are all basically in agreement on the Democratic side.

That Trump lead though, my god...

[Lief 🗽]

The polls are all basically in agreement on the Democratic side.

That Trump lead though, my god...

Trump breaking 60% would really be something.

[Eraserhead]

I really can't see some dude who is only garnering 14% of the vote in The Empire State ending up with the Republican nomination.

[Holmes]

I really can't see some dude who is only garnering 14% of the vote in The Empire State ending up with the Republican nomination.

The Republican establishment's ready to steal it from him. Actually they've been setting the stage for a coup right in front of our eyes for the past month or so.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I wonder who the Jews of NY are supporting

[Vosem]

I really can't see some dude who is only garnering 14% of the vote in The Empire State ending up with the Republican nomination.

Why's that? McCain only got 13% in Iowa in 2008, and you can bet Iowa matters a lot more for the Republican Party than New York.

Ted Cruz will win Indiana and remain the likeliest Republican nominee even on the off-chance that he fails to break 10% here.

[Holmes]

you can bet Iowa matters a lot more for the Republican Party than New York.

You think? New York sends more Republicans to the House than Iowa does, 9 - 3. New Yorkers donate more money to the Republican party than Iowa does. New York has over 3 times the amount of delegates Iowa does, so New York's voice is 3 times more powerful at the convention. There are more registered Republicans in New York than in Iowa, so the Republican nominee for President gets more raw votes in New York than in Iowa, even if its electoral votes go to the Democratic nominee (and more times than not, so do Iowa's).

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Wait, is this NY or just NY-01?

[Vosem]

you can bet Iowa matters a lot more for the Republican Party than New York.

You think? New York sends more Republicans to the House than Iowa does, 9 - 3.

But Iowa sends 2 more Senators than New York does (and 2/100 is a greater margin than 6/435), and Iowa's electoral votes are at least hypothetically winnable for the GOP, whereas New York's are not.

New Yorkers donate more money to the Republican party than Iowa does.

The relationship between what New York donors think and what New York voters think (even New York Republican primary voters) is not a meaningful one.

New York has over 3 times the amount of delegates Iowa does, so New York's voice is 3 times more powerful at the convention.

This argument has some merit, so I'm just going to say that Iowa's delegates are going to have way more fellow travelers than New York's.

There are more registered Republicans in New York than in Iowa, so the Republican nominee for President gets more raw votes in New York than in Iowa, even if its electoral votes go to the Democratic nominee (and more times than not, so do Iowa's).

Those votes are all wasted and therefore meaningless and useless, whereas the Republican votes from Iowa in the recent past have been meaningful indeed, and it's not unreasonable to suppose they will be meaningful again in the fairly immediate future.

Wait, is this NY or just NY-01?

NY1 is a news channel, my friend. This is a poll of New York State.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I really can't see some dude who is only garnering 14% of the vote in The Empire State ending up with the Republican nomination.

Why's that? McCain only got 13% in Iowa in 2008, and you can bet Iowa matters a lot more for the Republican Party than New York.

Ted Cruz will win Indiana and remain the likeliest Republican nominee even on the off-chance that he fails to break 10% here.

Because when was the last time a GOPer lost a New York primary in the last three decades and still got the nomination? NY and CA are far more reflective of who will be the nominee than Iowa.

[Mehmentum]

I really can't see some dude who is only garnering 14% of the vote in The Empire State ending up with the Republican nomination.

Why's that? McCain only got 13% in Iowa in 2008, and you can bet Iowa matters a lot more for the Republican Party than New York.

Ted Cruz will win Indiana and remain the likeliest Republican nominee even on the off-chance that he fails to break 10% here.

Because when was the last time a GOPer lost a New York primary in the last three decades and still got the nomination? NY and CA are far more reflective of who will be the nominee than Iowa.

Every GOP nominee has also won Wisconsin and Ohio since national primaries started in the 70s.  Since 1980, every GOP nominee has won Idaho and Texas.  These predictive states are about as meaningful as Missouri's bellweather status was in 2008.

[Torie]

It's too bad that Trump was not at 85% in NY-01. Damn!

[Seriously?]

I wonder who the Jews of NY are supporting

The Jews or the Hasidic Jews? If it's the Hasidic Jews, whomever gives them the best bribes will get thea block vote in Orange/Rockland Counties and Brooklyn.

Ask Hillary! Her husband gave out a couple of pardons in 2000 and Hillary! got their votes.

[Seriously?]

Wait, is this NY or just NY-01?

NY1 is the Time Warner Cable TV news station in NYC.

[Lief 🗽]

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THE GOLD STANDARD!

[DemPGH]

Yeah, that's pretty good on the GOP side. They said lightning would strike a certain spot, and damn if it did. I don't think anybody had Trump at 60.

This is shaping up to be worst case for Cruz, and he goes into May in an appallingly weak position with Kasich basically supplanting him, assuming this all holds up (CT, PA, etc.).