NY state

[jman123]

Can he win by more than 50 percent in NY state?

[Ljube]

Yes. New York will be his first above 50% state.

[Xing]

Looks almost certain, at this point.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Yep. I won't be surprised if he gets all 95 delegates too.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Trump is the first EXCITING Republican New Yorkers have seen in ages.  He's the first New Yorker to run for President since Thomas Dewey (unless you count Eisenhower in 1952 or Nixon in 1968, folks who moved to NY, but were not New Yorkers), and will be the first New Yorker on a national ticket since William Miller in 1964 (unless you count Jack Kemp, who was a resident of Maryland at the time of his VP selection).  

[windjammer]

Yep. I won't be surprised if he gets all 95 delegates too.

He would need to get more than 60% of the vote for that, unlikely.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Yep. I won't be surprised if he gets all 95 delegates too.

He would need to get more than 60% of the vote for that, unlikely.

Where are people getting this 60% number from? It's not in the rules: http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/NY-R

As long as his support is consistent throughout the state, there's no difference between 55% and 60%.

[Vosem]

As long as his support is consistent throughout the state, there's no difference between 55% and 60%.

But...his support is not consistent throughout the state. If you accept the Optimus poll's conclusions, in fact, his extremely heavy support in some very-populated districts (Long Island and Staten Island) actually disfavors him, and he would need ~52% of the vote statewide to cross 50% in a majority of congressional districts (keep in mind he's penalized a delegate for every district he doesn't eclipse 50% in, and 2 if someone else wins the plurality).

Trump is the first EXCITING Republican New Yorkers have seen in ages.  He's the first New Yorker to run for President since Thomas Dewey (unless you count Eisenhower in 1952 or Nixon in 1968, folks who moved to NY, but were not New Yorkers), and will be the first New Yorker on a national ticket since William Miller in 1964 (unless you count Jack Kemp, who was a resident of Maryland at the time of his VP selection). 

No love for Nelson Rockefeller or Rudy Giuliani? Or Steve Forbes? _trump will be among their ranks, of New Yorkers who failed to win the nomination, very soon. (Or was Forbes from New Jersey? I forget).

[Lyin' Steve]

As long as his support is consistent throughout the state, there's no difference between 55% and 60%.

But...his support is not consistent throughout the state. If you accept the Optimus poll's conclusions, in fact, his extremely heavy support in some very-populated districts (Long Island and Staten Island) actually disfavors him, and he would need ~52% of the vote statewide to cross 50% in a majority of congressional districts (keep in mind he's penalized a delegate for every district he doesn't eclipse 50% in, and 2 if someone else wins the plurality).

Trump is the first EXCITING Republican New Yorkers have seen in ages.  He's the first New Yorker to run for President since Thomas Dewey (unless you count Eisenhower in 1952 or Nixon in 1968, folks who moved to NY, but were not New Yorkers), and will be the first New Yorker on a national ticket since William Miller in 1964 (unless you count Jack Kemp, who was a resident of Maryland at the time of his VP selection). 

No love for Nelson Rockefeller or Rudy Giuliani? Or Steve Forbes? _trump will be among their ranks, of New Yorkers who failed to win the nomination, very soon. (Or was Forbes from New Jersey? I forget).

Rockefeller wasn't on the ticket in 1976 (he abidcated and was replaced by Dole) and in 1964 there was no NY primary.  Giuliani didn't make it to New York.  Forbes was a New Yorker but Dole and Bush were already the presumptive nominees in 1996 and 2000 by the time the New York primary rolled around; in spite of this he did get 30% in 1996.

[dspNY]

I live here; he'll get 55%, maybe more

[windjammer]

Yep. I won't be surprised if he gets all 95 delegates too.

He would need to get more than 60% of the vote for that, unlikely.

Where are people getting this 60% number from? It's not in the rules: http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/NY-R

As long as his support is consistent throughout the state, there's no difference between 55% and 60%.

I mean, in order to get 50> in most of the NY districts, he needs at least to get 60% of the vote.

[MIKESOWELL]

I am going to be bold and state that motivation for his voters from perceived wrongdoings by the Cruz campaign over the past few weeks will power Donald Trump to a 57 percent majority on Tuesday.