NY-Monmouth Uni: Hillary+12 (user search)
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  NY-Monmouth Uni: Hillary+12 (search mode)
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Author Topic: NY-Monmouth Uni: Hillary+12  (Read 3592 times)
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43
« on: April 12, 2016, 05:52:59 PM »
Quote from: Eraserhead on April 11, 2016, 01:51:25 PM
I hope this at least puts to bed the idea that this is going to look anything like Cuomo-Teachout in terms of the margin.

I've always thought it would be more like the 08 primary overall, but with massive regional swings. I have a strong feeling that the pollsters aren't screening well enough for this ultra restrictive closed primary, and that Hillary is going to outperform by at least a few points as a result. One of them even included independents!
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IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43
« Reply #1 on: April 19, 2016, 10:30:45 PM »
Quote from: IceSpear on April 12, 2016, 05:52:59 PM
Quote from: Eraserhead on April 11, 2016, 01:51:25 PM
I hope this at least puts to bed the idea that this is going to look anything like Cuomo-Teachout in terms of the margin.

I've always thought it would be more like the 08 primary overall, but with massive regional swings. I have a strong feeling that the pollsters aren't screening well enough for this ultra restrictive closed primary, and that Hillary is going to outperform by at least a few points as a result. One of them even included independents!

I will now accept my accolades. Smiley
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