NY - Emerson: Clinton 56, Sanders 38 | Trump 56, Cruz 22, Kasich 17
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  NY - Emerson: Clinton 56, Sanders 38 | Trump 56, Cruz 22, Kasich 17
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Author Topic: NY - Emerson: Clinton 56, Sanders 38 | Trump 56, Cruz 22, Kasich 17  (Read 2505 times)
yankeesfan
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« on: April 07, 2016, 10:36:26 PM »
« edited: April 07, 2016, 10:42:04 PM by yankeesfan »

Full details out tomorrow

https://twitter.com/emersonpolling/status/718281024787111936
"In #NYPrimary, @HillaryClinton leads #Democratic race 56 to @BernieSanders 38. #Hillary -15 and #Bernie +15 since our Mar. 16 poll in NY."

https://twitter.com/emersonpolling/status/718282198009409536
"In #GOP #NYPrimary @realDonaldTrump 56 (-8), @tedcruz 22  (+10) @JohnKasich 17 (+16) since our March 16 poll."
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Ebsy
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« Reply #1 on: April 07, 2016, 10:37:14 PM »

More like coming back into something resembling reality.
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Matty
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« Reply #2 on: April 07, 2016, 10:39:41 PM »

they also claim there is a huge swing on R side
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yankeesfan
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« Reply #3 on: April 07, 2016, 10:40:28 PM »

they also claim there is a huge swing on R side

Kasich was at 1% in their last poll.  So.....he should go up, I'd imagine
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yankeesfan
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« Reply #4 on: April 07, 2016, 10:42:29 PM »

Trump 56
Cruz 22
Kasich 17

https://twitter.com/emersonpolling/status/718282198009409536
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dspNY
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« Reply #5 on: April 07, 2016, 10:45:51 PM »

After Sanders' "unqualified" gaffe and Daily News interview, expect this to be one of the best numbers he sees in NY for the rest of the primary. I could believe an upper-teens size lead for Clinton because that 48 point poll was never real. I'd expect her lead to grow into the 20s in NY polling soon
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RJEvans
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« Reply #6 on: April 07, 2016, 10:49:57 PM »

After Sanders' "unqualified" gaffe and Daily News interview, expect this to be one of the best numbers he sees in NY for the rest of the primary. I could believe an upper-teens size lead for Clinton because that 48 point poll was never real. I'd expect her lead to grow into the 20s in NY polling soon

I don't know about that. I'm eager to see what the polls say in the coming days. But, I still think this ends up in the single digits. If it's 10 points over over, I'll be surprised.
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swf541
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« Reply #7 on: April 07, 2016, 10:51:37 PM »

Looks realistic this time, the last one of theirs just wasnt realistic with Kasich at 1
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Xing
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« Reply #8 on: April 07, 2016, 10:53:24 PM »

Seems Clinton by 15 looks like a very reasonable guess by now. Also, everyone will go back to thinking Trump is unstoppable instead of doomed after this primary.
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BundouYMB
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« Reply #9 on: April 07, 2016, 10:55:01 PM »

I'm actually interested to see how polls match up vs. the result on the Democratic side. New York has quite possibly the strictest closed primary in the nation. IIRC, the deadline for new voters registering for the primary was in September last year and the deadline for party switchers was sometime in February. Unless pollsters are bothering to ask unusually detailed questions about party registration, they're bound to have at least a few people in their sample who think they're eligible to vote but aren't.
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Matty
boshembechle
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« Reply #10 on: April 07, 2016, 10:55:16 PM »

trump at 56 means no chance he doesn't get all 95 dels
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #11 on: April 07, 2016, 10:56:27 PM »

This polling firm is pretty obviously garbage, but sure these look reasonable.

One thing is, I expected Bernie to start berning some of that $40 million on ads here by now. Still haven't seen anything on TV.
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Fargobison
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« Reply #12 on: April 07, 2016, 11:00:43 PM »

trump at 56 means no chance he doesn't get all 95 dels

They go by CDs so I think he would need to be higher statewide to get everything.
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Fargobison
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« Reply #13 on: April 07, 2016, 11:02:20 PM »

Also if Kasich can't get better then 20% here then he needs to drop out of the race.
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RJEvans
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« Reply #14 on: April 07, 2016, 11:07:10 PM »

This polling firm is pretty obviously garbage, but sure these look reasonable.

One thing is, I expected Bernie to start berning some of that $40 million on ads here by now. Still haven't seen anything on TV.

I saw one ad. But that's it. I expect the media market to be flooded next week.
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Vosem
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« Reply #15 on: April 07, 2016, 11:11:07 PM »

trump at 56 means no chance he doesn't get all 95 dels

Nah, he would have to break 50 in 27/27 CDs for that. Still unlikely. 56% opens up the possibility for >90, though.
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Matty
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« Reply #16 on: April 07, 2016, 11:12:34 PM »

Kasich is an afterthought it appears.

This is not a good sign for him in other states in the region.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #17 on: April 07, 2016, 11:49:53 PM »

Is this poll still 100% landline like their last one?
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #18 on: April 08, 2016, 12:19:31 AM »

Emerson is hilarious. I wonder if their next poll will show the race tied or show Clinton up by 40+ points again.
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jfern
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« Reply #19 on: April 08, 2016, 12:20:43 AM »

Emerson has made PPP look pro Bernie in comparison, so no.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #20 on: April 08, 2016, 12:37:49 AM »

Emerson is quickly headed to ARG/Overtime territory.
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A Perez
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« Reply #21 on: April 08, 2016, 01:33:50 AM »

Emerson is quickly headed to ARG/Overtime territory.
Emerson was the most accurate pollster in Wisconsin, better than Marquette, CBS and everyone else.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #22 on: April 08, 2016, 01:40:38 AM »

Is this poll still 100% landline like their last one?
I believe it is illegal for IVR (which Emerson uses) to call cell phones.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #23 on: April 08, 2016, 01:49:41 AM »

Emerson is quickly headed to ARG/Overtime territory.
Emerson was the most accurate pollster in Wisconsin, better than Marquette, CBS and everyone else.

Yeah, because they switched from Clinton +6 to Sanders +8 at the last second which still wasn't that close to final result anyway.

They were dreadful in Massachusetts (too pro-Clinton) and South Carolina (WAY too pro-Sanders).
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Shadows
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« Reply #24 on: April 08, 2016, 06:55:51 AM »

They do only landline & oldies survey - Junk!
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