PA-Quinnipiac: Toomey leads Sestak and McGinty

[Heisenberg]

The race will likely be closer, but I can see Toomey winning by about 2 or 3 points.  It should be noted that Pennsylvania has had a history of reelecting Republicans during presidential years while voting for the Democrat in the presidential election.  If there were enough Gore-Santorum voters in 2000, then I think Toomey has a 60-40 shot or so at winning. Tilt R at the moment.

[Heisenberg]

As long as Clinton holds a lead in Pa, Sestak will have a fighting chance. This isn't 2004 when Specter who was much more moderate than Santorum or Toomey prevailed in election year.

Maybe this ends up like 2000, when there were a considerable number of Gore/Santorum ticket splits.  That has always surprised me, that both won in PA at the same time.  Santorum is no Specter, and is very conservative.