NY,PA,WI-CBS/YouGov: Sanders/Cruz in WI; Clinton/Trump in NY, Trump in PA

[Shadows]

I am not sure how accurate this is -

Sanders get 31% of the black vote by 19% of the Hispanic vote.

18-29 vote is 15% odd, higher than Florida but lower than almost all other or most states. So considering the above too, there is still chance for Sanders to catch up further. A solid win in Wisconsin, WV followed by a good debate can make this a reasonably close race

[HagridOfTheDeep]

I wonder if Sanders is sinking a bit. Could be that pointing out his dramatically negative tone is convincing some voters that he doesn't really care about the Democratic Party or actually making enough friends to implement his "revolution" come January.

[Fusionmunster]

SO WAIT...............

Hillary leads Sanders by 18% when only factoring in registered democrats, EXCEPT NY is a closed primary so there shouldn't be any independents in this poll, right?

[Gass3268]

SO WAIT...............

Hillary leads Sanders by 18% when only factoring in registered democrats, EXCEPT NY is a closed primary so there shouldn't be any independents in this poll, right?

Independents can register as Democrats for the purpose of a primary and still identify as independents when asked.

[The Other Castro]

SO WAIT...............

Hillary leads Sanders by 18% when only factoring in registered democrats, EXCEPT NY is a closed primary so there shouldn't be any independents in this poll, right?

Is it identification or registration? For political purposes, I registered as a Democrat in CT so I could vote in the primary, but I identify as an Independent.

[Matty]

does anyone else sorta feel like WI on the R side is shaping up to be similar to Ohio? Some polls there showed a fairly comfortable kasich lead (+5,+6, etc), while some polls (PPP, Yougov) had it tied or really close. Ended up being a ten point win for the governor.

[Fusionmunster]

SO WAIT...............

Hillary leads Sanders by 18% when only factoring in registered democrats, EXCEPT NY is a closed primary so there shouldn't be any independents in this poll, right?

Independents can register as Democrats for the purpose of a primary and still identify as independents when asked.

SO WAIT...............

Hillary leads Sanders by 18% when only factoring in registered democrats, EXCEPT NY is a closed primary so there shouldn't be any independents in this poll, right?

Is it identification or registration? For political purposes, I registered as a Democrat in CT so I could vote in the primary, but I identify as an Independent.

It says "Party ID" like all their other polls. In my opinion, it would be clearer if they required the people being polled to have to identify, not just say they're a likely democratic primary voter.

[JerryArkansas]

SO WAIT...............

Hillary leads Sanders by 18% when only factoring in registered democrats, EXCEPT NY is a closed primary so there shouldn't be any independents in this poll, right?

Independents can register as Democrats for the purpose of a primary and still identify as independents when asked.

At the same time, they would have had to be registered as a Dem in December to vote in New York.  I hope they accounted for this, but we will see.

[YPestis25]

SO WAIT...............

Hillary leads Sanders by 18% when only factoring in registered democrats, EXCEPT NY is a closed primary so there shouldn't be any independents in this poll, right?

Independents can register as Democrats for the purpose of a primary and still identify as independents when asked.

At the same time, they would have had to be registered as a Dem in December to vote in New York.  I hope they accounted for this, but we will see.

Huh. I thought the registration deadline was sometime in late March.

[Mehmentum]

SO WAIT...............

Hillary leads Sanders by 18% when only factoring in registered democrats, EXCEPT NY is a closed primary so there shouldn't be any independents in this poll, right?

Independents can register as Democrats for the purpose of a primary and still identify as independents when asked.

At the same time, they would have had to be registered as a Dem in December to vote in New York.  I hope they accounted for this, but we will see.

Huh. I thought the registration deadline was sometime in late March.

The deadline to change registration between parties was in December.  The deadline to register as a new voter was in late March (yes, its stupid).

[Ebsy]

CBS/YouGov has had difficulty screening for likely voters in past contests, both closed and open primaries.

[Matty]

CBS/YouGov has had difficulty screening for likely voters in past contests, both closed and open primaries.

Don't they have some weird system where they give you "points" for participating in the poll>?

[dspNY]

Only 19% of the Democratic sample was 65+. In 2008 that was 30%, when the primary was held in February, a month with far fewer senior citizens in NY than April. Expect the senior vote to be at least a quarter of the overall vote on 4/19, if not higher

[JerryArkansas]

SO WAIT...............

Hillary leads Sanders by 18% when only factoring in registered democrats, EXCEPT NY is a closed primary so there shouldn't be any independents in this poll, right?

Independents can register as Democrats for the purpose of a primary and still identify as independents when asked.

At the same time, they would have had to be registered as a Dem in December to vote in New York.  I hope they accounted for this, but we will see.

Huh. I thought the registration deadline was sometime in late March.

The deadline to change registration between parties was in December.  The deadline to register as a new voter was in late March (yes, its stupid).

So Yeah he is probably screwed.  Better hope his ground game was good getting people to register. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't really see how Hillary wins WI - but we'll see. I still predict something like 55-44 for Bernie.

I think MKE comes in big for her, I hope she pulls through. Sanders is gonna have a hard time in a closed primary in Pennsylvania. Philly is gonna do it.

[Holmes]

I guess the question is whether they asked, "are you a registered Democrat or have no party affiliation?", or if they asked "do you identify as a Democrat or a political independent?" Either way it's kind of sketch to add indies in a poll of a closed primary.

And the MoE on both Wisconsin and New York polls are pretty big so they're kind of sh**t.

[Eraserhead]

I guess the question is whether they asked, "are you a registered Democrat or have no party affiliation?", or if they asked "do you identify as a Democrat or a political independent?" Either way it's kind of sketch to add indies in a poll of a closed primary.

And the MoE on both Wisconsin and New York polls are pretty big so they're kind of sh**t.

I was polled for New York. They asked if I was a registered Democrat.

[Lief 🗽]

I guess the question is whether they asked, "are you a registered Democrat or have no party affiliation?", or if they asked "do you identify as a Democrat or a political independent?" Either way it's kind of sketch to add indies in a poll of a closed primary.

And the MoE on both Wisconsin and New York polls are pretty big so they're kind of sh**t.

I was polled for New York. They asked if I was a registered Democrat.

Same. I don't remember any questions about how I "identified." Not sure why independents were included in this.

[Holmes]

So weird to include indies then. Some people might be getting their hopes up for nothing.

[Ebsy]

I mean, this is sort of what we've come to expect from YouGov.

[DemPGH]

Good on the GOP side! NY is in line with most everything else and PA is about what I'd expect. Trump is a good fit.

[Matty]

Good on the GOP side! NY is in line with most everything else and PA is about what I'd expect. Trump is a good fit.

thank god for PA's weird delegate allocation.

[Mr. Morden]

WI Dems by race…

whites:
Sanders 52%
Clinton 45%

blacks:
Clinton 61%
Sanders 25%

NY Dems by race…

whites:
Sanders 51%
Clinton 44%

blacks:
Clinton 65%
Sanders 31%

Hispanics:
Clinton 75%
Sanders 19%

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

BUT...KASICH IS GONNA BEAT TRUMP IN PA!

[IceSpear]

Hillary leads by 18 among registered Dems in NY. Not sure why they included independents, other than incompetence.