WI-FOX Business: Cruz +10

[bigedlb]

I think FOX, MU basically show that PPP was an outlier.

Emerson College almost matches PPP Emerson: Cruz 36 Trump 35 Kasich 19

[Mr. Morden]

Looks like the trend is pro-Cruz - Wisconsin might get really ugly for the Trumpster.

It seems to be a complete Trumpster fire.

[Matty]

so why do y'all think there is a discrepancy between emerson/ppp and fox/MU/basswood?

[Wisconsin+17]

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Cruzmentum!

[JRoby]

its the WOW counties that are killing Trump. he's probably doing really well statewide.

Wisconsin isn't the best fit for Trump. a lot more "movement" conservatives fill the GOP ranks there than in other MW states.

If he can crack 25-30% in WOW and Kasich pulls a good %, he might be able to pull it off.

[Wiz in Wis]

Bernie Sanders: 48%
Hillary Clinton: 43%

So PPP, Fox, and Marquette are basically in agreement here.

Overall, this is both very good, and pretty bad, for Sanders. In terms of momentum/optics/fundraising, a win in Wisconsin will allow him to go into NY with "the wind at his back" However, it would also be a clear loss in terms of delegate goals. Unlike the West Coast Caucuses, he won't meet his delegate target with a 5 point win. It would also suggest that the fundamentals of the race remain unchanged, and that he won't win NY, PA, NJ, MD, DE, CT, PR or CA. Hillary will extend her delegate lead to probably 400-500 pledged delegates after June 7. Then, the party will expect him to graciously concede.

[Seriously?]

so why do y'all think there is a discrepancy between emerson/ppp and fox/MU/basswood?

Probably turnout model/LV screening. There was a divergence in Florida as well for those that had it a 10 point Trump race vs. a 20 point Trump race. The 20 pointers "won" there.

Other well-polled states have been similar this cycle with differing results. While it's difficult to figure out what camp is right at this point, you'd have to figure that Cruz is strongly favored in Wisconsin at this point.