WI - Marquette University: Sanders up 4, Cruz up 10 (user search)
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  WI - Marquette University: Sanders up 4, Cruz up 10 (search mode)
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Author Topic: WI - Marquette University: Sanders up 4, Cruz up 10  (Read 12591 times)
Holmes
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Posts: 13,719
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74

« on: March 30, 2016, 11:29:23 AM »

Well, at least Sanders is up so he should be happy, but +4 isn't great at all for him here.

Trump on the other hand has no reason to be happy with this poll. Cruz might take all delegates with a 10% margin.
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Holmes
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,719
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74

« Reply #1 on: March 30, 2016, 03:51:29 PM »

If this result bares out on election day, Trump's path to a majority on the first ballot becomes significantly more narrow.
It would require him to win every delegate in New York, which isn't too crazy, and West Virginia, and also win Indiana, Maryland, and do good in Oregon and Washington - obviously winning those would be best but they're proportional so it's not the end of the world if he loses them. Also win over half of the delegates in California.
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Holmes
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,719
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74

« Reply #2 on: March 30, 2016, 04:29:38 PM »

I don't get where this Clinton not contesting is coming - She is heavily campaign - She has several small meetings, meeting business owners n small gatherings. There's not much excitement and neither does she get much crowd, so it makes no sense for her to do large rallies.

Even Chelsea was there - There's 5 days to Wisconsin - I am hoping for 10-15% atleast - Let us see!

According to Morning Consult yesterday, Sanders is outspending Clinton on Wisconsin media buys this week by greater than 10:1.  And someone on the news today said that Clinton has no plans to go back to Wisconsin before next Tuesday.  Both are a mistake if the Marquette poll is correct.  But Hillary's internals must tell her something else.

Or just recognizes her lead is insurmountable and is saving her money for the GE. That's what her SuperPAC has done.

That might explain the media buys, but it wouldn't explain why Clinton has no more planned events in the state. 

Clinton advertised heavily in Arizona - not as much as Sanders, but the ratio wasn't 10:1.  The only thing that has changed since Arizona is Sanders won more contests, 2 of which Clinton didn't bother to advertise in, and the other of which was a relatively cheap one TV market state (Hawaii), where she did.

Well, she launched her first New York ad today and kicked off her campaign for NY in Harlem this morning. She'll probably fundraise some more, spend time in New York, Pennsylvania, Maryland, and probably Connecticut in the coming weeks instead of spending more a few more days in Wisconsin, which would only net her a couple of more delegates either way.
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