WI - Marquette University: Sanders up 4, Cruz up 10

[Wiz in Wis]

Marquette is the gold standard in WI. If Bernie is only going to win by 4 (not at all out of line with the neighborhood). Then he will, at best, net 3-4 delegates. That's a crushing defeat in terms of math, but an okay image in terms of "momentum"

Cruz, on the other hand... this could be a big win for him. Would not guarantee that Trump loses first ballot hopes, but means that his path becomes very very narrow for that.

[Wiz in Wis]

How many delegates does Sanders win if he wins Wisconsin by 4%?

Hard to say, when Obama won in 08, he won by 18%, but only netted 10 delegates. A 4 point victory probably nets fewer than 4 delegates.

[Wiz in Wis]

This is an underwhelming performance for Sanders if true. Frankly I don't understand why the Clinton campaign doesn't contest the state more aggressively, a win in Wisconsin will completely discredit Sanders as a serious candidate, at least in the eyes of the media.

Because Clinton campaign knows they are losing by bigger margin.

Nah, it's all optics. If they play down their chances in WI, they can discredit the minor win Sanders would get. Look at Michigan. The expectations were that Clinton would win by 10+ and she lost. She's not letting expectations be set for her again like that.

[Wiz in Wis]

Net Favorability Ratings (Favorable minus Unfavorable) from worst to best:

Donald Trump (R):    - 48.6 %
Hillary Clinton (D):    - 23.5 %
Ted Cruz (R):            - 18.5 %
Bernie Sanders (D):  +  6.2 %
John Kasich (R):       +13.5 %

I would say that Trump's campaign is RIP, as of this moment.

I also still believe that the only people who could become President, from this list, are Clinton and Kasich.

There are a ton of people who don't like Clinton, do like Sanders, and are voting Clinton anyways. #FeeltheBern.

[Wiz in Wis]

Well my vote will be for Kasich, wondering if I should switch and vote for Clinton instead. If Sanders only wins by 4 or so it's pretty humiliating for him, and a reason we should abolish the caucus.

Not sure what you're getting at other than the concept that caucuses alone are the reason Sanders is still in this (which I agree with btw).

[Wiz in Wis]

Imagine if Trump manages to lose by more than 10 points...

Or, if he finishes third, which I think is a real possibility.

From your lips to God's ears.

[Wiz in Wis]

MKE Co.+Cty:
Cruz - 53%
Kasich - 22%
Trump - 15%

MKE MKT
Cruz - 43%
Kasich - 21%
Trump - 27%

Madison MKT:
Cruz - 16%
Kasich - 37%
Trump - 33%

GB Market:
Cruz - 41%
Kasich - 15%
Trump - 32%

Rest:
Cruz - 40
Kasich - 17
Trump - 41

Looks like Ted wins CD 1, 4, 5, 6, and 8. Kasich may win CD 2, Trump might win CD 3 and 7.