WI - Marquette University: Sanders up 4, Cruz up 10
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  WI - Marquette University: Sanders up 4, Cruz up 10
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Author Topic: WI - Marquette University: Sanders up 4, Cruz up 10  (Read 12592 times)
Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #50 on: March 30, 2016, 01:51:54 PM »

Wowie!  Great news for Mr. Sanders.  You'd think the "presumptive nominee" would be doing better than a paltry 45% in the heart of American Cheeseland. 

I'm zizzled with excitement for Tues!
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Shadows
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« Reply #51 on: March 30, 2016, 01:52:32 PM »

There are a few really strong stuff for Sanders - 42% of Non-White votes may just be one of his strongest performances. Very strong demographic numbers - Even 45-59 Hillary leads by just 51 to 43% - This is much better than most of Sanders' states - And a complete sweep among youth.

Sanders is not gaining huge among whites - 20-25% like he needs - There is ground to make up - This poll came before Washington, Hawaii n Alaska - Sanders has spend decent in ads n stuff.

This will only get better - But anyways 44% for Clinton is a strong result - IMO 60-40 looks difficult now - At best 55-45 looks more realistically.

The poll probably has a very white weight-age for old people seeing a small margin even after such a strong performance from Sanders!

And the polls - Sanders beats all, Clinton is losing bad to Kasich & tying with Cruz!
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #52 on: March 30, 2016, 01:55:51 PM »

Wowie!  Great news for Mr. Sanders.  You'd think the "presumptive nominee" would be doing better than a paltry 45% in the heart of American Cheeseland. 

I'm zizzled with excitement for Tues!
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madelka
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« Reply #53 on: March 30, 2016, 01:57:02 PM »

Wowie!  Great news for Mr. Sanders.  You'd think the "presumptive nominee" would be doing better than a paltry 45% in the heart of American Cheeseland. 

I'm zizzled with excitement for Tues!

See, this is what I mean, Castro.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #54 on: March 30, 2016, 01:58:29 PM »

Wow, Sanders is actually winning Milwaukee County in this poll.

If he is winning Milwaukee then how is he winning overall by only 4?
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #55 on: March 30, 2016, 01:59:58 PM »

Wowie!  Great news for Mr. Sanders.  You'd think the "presumptive nominee" would be doing better than a paltry 45% in the heart of American Cheeseland.  

I'm zizzled with excitement for Tues!

See, this is what I mean, Castro.

HockeyDude excited about Sanders being ahead in Wisconsin is a problem for you? He's allowed to be happy, if only for a little while.
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Coolface Sock #42069
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« Reply #56 on: March 30, 2016, 02:00:53 PM »

Why are Republicans so happy? Shouldn't they be hoping Kasich wins here and not Cruz? Cruz is hardly more electable than Trump. On the Democratic side, I'll be surprised if Sanders does any worse than this, and he'll probably do better.
We actually like our nominees to be conservative.
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
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« Reply #57 on: March 30, 2016, 02:04:19 PM »

Wowie!  Great news for Mr. Sanders.  You'd think the "presumptive nominee" would be doing better than a paltry 45% in the heart of American Cheeseland.  

I'm zizzled with excitement for Tues!

See, this is what I mean, Castro.

HockeyDude excited about Sanders being ahead in Wisconsin is a problem for you? He's allowed to be happy, if only for a little while.

But 45% is a great result for Clinton. She barely broke 40% in 2008, and Bernie is much more popular among whites than Obama was.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #58 on: March 30, 2016, 02:05:34 PM »

Wowie!  Great news for Mr. Sanders.  You'd think the "presumptive nominee" would be doing better than a paltry 45% in the heart of American Cheeseland.  

I'm zizzled with excitement for Tues!

See, this is what I mean, Castro.

HockeyDude excited about Sanders being ahead in Wisconsin is a problem for you? He's allowed to be happy, if only for a little while.

But 45% is a great result for Clinton. She barely broke 40% in 2008, and Bernie is much more popular among whites than Obama was.

I'm not saying that he's correct in his assessment of the race.
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°Leprechaun
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« Reply #59 on: March 30, 2016, 02:06:19 PM »

Wowie!  Great news for Mr. Sanders.  You'd think the "presumptive nominee" would be doing better than a paltry 45% in the heart of American Cheeseland. 

I'm zizzled with excitement for Tues!
Smiley Clinton supporters have been underestimating Sanders all along. If he wins Wisconsin, that is another step forward. I hope that he wins really big and then the dynamics of the race will change. Although I am not going to get overconfident. A win will be good.
On to NY and on to April 26th. Let's all hope that he outperforms everywhere in April. Smiley
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
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« Reply #60 on: March 30, 2016, 02:08:07 PM »

It will be interesting to see the gender gap in the exit polls of the GOP race. If Republican women are turning against Trump, that could be interesting.
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Xing
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« Reply #61 on: March 30, 2016, 02:10:28 PM »

Wowie!  Great news for Mr. Sanders.  You'd think the "presumptive nominee" would be doing better than a paltry 45% in the heart of American Cheeseland.  

I'm zizzled with excitement for Tues!

See, this is what I mean, Castro.

HockeyDude excited about Sanders being ahead in Wisconsin is a problem for you? He's allowed to be happy, if only for a little while.

But 45% is a great result for Clinton. She barely broke 40% in 2008, and Bernie is much more popular among whites than Obama was.

And Clinton is doing much better among black voters than she did in 2008, which is why Milwaukee will help her out. Let Sanders supporters be happy about winning. It's not like Wisconsin will drastically change the state of the race.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #62 on: March 30, 2016, 02:16:20 PM »

Wow, Sanders is actually winning Milwaukee County in this poll.

If he is winning Milwaukee then how is he winning overall by only 4?

Milwaukee City and County (Red)
Sanders 49 - Clinton 45

Rest of Milwaukee Media Market (Green)
Clinton 48 - Sanders 46

Madison Media Market (Purple)
Sanders 52 - Clinton 42

Green Bay Media Market (Orange)   
Clinton 48 - Sanders 46

Rest of the state (north and west)(Blue)
   
Sanders 54 - Clinton 42


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Ebsy
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« Reply #63 on: March 30, 2016, 02:20:58 PM »

Wow, Sanders is actually winning Milwaukee County in this poll.

If he is winning Milwaukee then how is he winning overall by only 4?

Milwaukee City and County (Red)
Sanders 49 - Clinton 45

Rest of Milwaukee Media Market (Green)
Clinton 48 - Sanders 46

Madison Media Market (Purple)
Sanders 52 - Clinton 42

Green Bay Media Market (Orange)   
Clinton 48 - Sanders 46

Rest of the state (north and west)(Blue)
   
Sanders 54 - Clinton 42



Not what I would have expected at all. Makes me quite suspicious of this poll.
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« Reply #64 on: March 30, 2016, 02:25:10 PM »

Wow, Sanders is actually winning Milwaukee County in this poll.

If he is winning Milwaukee then how is he winning overall by only 4?

Milwaukee City and County (Red)
Sanders 49 - Clinton 45

Rest of Milwaukee Media Market (Green)
Clinton 48 - Sanders 46

Madison Media Market (Purple)
Sanders 52 - Clinton 42

Green Bay Media Market (Orange)   
Clinton 48 - Sanders 46

Rest of the state (north and west)(Blue)
   
Sanders 54 - Clinton 42



Not what I would have expected at all. Makes me quite suspicious of this poll.

Same. I fully expect Sanders to win Green Bay, while Clinton dominates in Milwaukee.
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jaichind
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« Reply #65 on: March 30, 2016, 02:27:15 PM »

Well, at least Sanders is up so he should be happy, but +4 isn't great at all for him here.

Trump on the other hand has no reason to be happy with this poll. Cruz might take all delegates with a 10% margin.

If the distribution of support is Kasich very strong around Madison and Cruz strong everywhere else, Trump might get zero delegates with numbers like these unless Trump has areas of very high support.
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #66 on: March 30, 2016, 02:30:41 PM »





Media markets and CDs.

So yeah, Cruz looks heavily favored in CDS 1, 4, and 5, and slightly less heavily favored in 6 and 8.  Kasich looks slightly favored in CD 2.  CDS 3 and 7 are a Trump v. Cruz tossup.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #67 on: March 30, 2016, 02:39:14 PM »

Wow, Sanders is actually winning Milwaukee County in this poll.

If he is winning Milwaukee then how is he winning overall by only 4?

Milwaukee City and County (Red)
Sanders 49 - Clinton 45

Rest of Milwaukee Media Market (Green)
Clinton 48 - Sanders 46

Madison Media Market (Purple)
Sanders 52 - Clinton 42

Green Bay Media Market (Orange)   
Clinton 48 - Sanders 46

Rest of the state (north and west)(Blue)
   
Sanders 54 - Clinton 42



Not what I would have expected at all. Makes me quite suspicious of this poll.

Same. I fully expect Sanders to win Green Bay, while Clinton dominates in Milwaukee.

As of the July 1, 2014 estimates, Milwaukee County is 53% White, 26% Black, 14% Hispanic, and 4% Asian. A big chuck of the whites that still live in Milwaukee County are middle class blue collar worker types that Sanders does very well with.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #68 on: March 30, 2016, 02:40:55 PM »





Media markets and CDs.

So yeah, Cruz looks heavily favored in CDS 1, 4, and 5, and slightly less heavily favored in 6 and 8.  Kasich looks slightly favored in CD 2.  CDS 3 and 7 are a Trump v. Cruz tossup.

That's last decade's CD map
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #69 on: March 30, 2016, 02:43:32 PM »

Wowie!  Great news for Mr. Sanders.  You'd think the "presumptive nominee" would be doing better than a paltry 45% in the heart of American Cheeseland.  

I'm zizzled with excitement for Tues!

See, this is what I mean, Castro.

HockeyDude excited about Sanders being ahead in Wisconsin is a problem for you? He's allowed to be happy, if only for a little while.

Thank you, Castro!  I'm happy that you are happy that I'm happy.

Don't be such a sourpuss, makleda!
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #70 on: March 30, 2016, 02:57:56 PM »
« Edited: March 30, 2016, 03:42:59 PM by Mehmentum »

Ah, thanks.  To be fair, the current map isn't that different.  The same candidates are probably favored in each district.
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MasterJedi
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« Reply #71 on: March 30, 2016, 02:59:20 PM »

Wowie!  Great news for Mr. Sanders.  You'd think the "presumptive nominee" would be doing better than a paltry 45% in the heart of American Cheeseland. 

I'm zizzled with excitement for Tues!
Smiley Clinton supporters have been underestimating Sanders all along. If he wins Wisconsin, that is another step forward. I hope that he wins really big and then the dynamics of the race will change. Although I am not going to get overconfident. A win will be good.
On to NY and on to April 26th. Let's all hope that he outperforms everywhere in April. Smiley

Anything <10% win for Sanders is very bad. Then come NY he'll be destroyed and likely Clinton wins 60-65% of the vote and then he gets killed in the rest of April. Sanderistas are getting themselves over excited which will lead to major disappointment very soon.
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #72 on: March 30, 2016, 03:05:19 PM »

General Election numbers...

Hillary 47.1, Trump 36.6
Hillary 44.2, Cruz 44.2
Kasich 48.1, Hillary 39.2

Well, at least Kasich has no chance of winning the primary.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #73 on: March 30, 2016, 03:23:17 PM »

Why are Republicans so happy? Shouldn't they be hoping Kasich wins here and not Cruz? Cruz is hardly more electable than Trump. On the Democratic side, I'll be surprised if Sanders does any worse than this, and he'll probably do better.

Republicans can kind of control Cruz, as he plays under their rules to some extent. They can't control Trump. Trump is an absolute wild man.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #74 on: March 30, 2016, 03:26:52 PM »

Marquette is the gold standard in WI.

...and Selzer is the gold standard in Iowa.

And caucuses stink on ice. This is a primary, where polling has, historically, been more accurate.

That being said, even if it were the case, wouldn't it mean that Cruz wins by even more? There has yet to be a state where a polling advantage for another candidate turned into an advantage for Trump.
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