McLaughlin&Associates national:D: Clinton 50% Sanders 38%; R: Trump 45% Cruz 28%
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 09:59:21 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls
  McLaughlin&Associates national:D: Clinton 50% Sanders 38%; R: Trump 45% Cruz 28%
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: McLaughlin&Associates national:D: Clinton 50% Sanders 38%; R: Trump 45% Cruz 28%  (Read 539 times)
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,073
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: March 30, 2016, 09:23:46 AM »

McLaughlin & Associates national poll, conducted March 17-23:

http://mclaughlinonline.com/pols/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/National-Omnibus-3-23-16-Topline-Public.pdf

Dems

Clinton 50%
Sanders 38%

GOP

Trump 45%
Cruz 28%
Kasich 16%
Logged
Holmes
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,719
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: March 30, 2016, 10:50:17 AM »

Why are the still doing national polls when like 3/4ths of the states, including TX and FL for population weighting purposes, have voted on both sides?

I dunno. Not many firms are doing national polls anymore, at least not at the same rate as two months ago. Maybe they want national coverage, so the media can say "according to x pollster, Clinton is up nationally over Sanders" and they'll get more attention.
Logged
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,073
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: March 30, 2016, 10:56:51 AM »

Why are the still doing national polls when like 3/4ths of the states, including TX and FL for population weighting purposes, have voted on both sides?

I addressed that here:

Honestly though, why do national polls matter at this point. We have a much more accurate poll already- the actual votes of half of GOP primary voters. And trump is up roughly 10.

They matter because 1) National support isn't fixed.  Different candidates could be gaining or losing ground, and 2) Most of those votes were cast when the field was larger, so we need new polling to show us how the race has changed now that some of the candidates have dropped out.  Ideally, that would be achieved via polling of all the states that haven't voted yet, but realistically we're not going to get new polls of all ~18 or so remaining states every week, so a national poll is a decent proxy.

Let me put it this way: Suppose that shortly after March 15, we got several national polls that showed Cruz rapidly closing the gap on Trump by picking up the bulk of Rubio's support now that he'd dropped out.  Wouldn't we consider that significant information, because it likely reflects a dynamic that's occurring in the ~35% of the country that hasn't voted yet, just as it is in the portion of the country that's already voted?  Since the actual national polls that we have don't really show that happening, isn't that also significant information?

Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.027 seconds with 12 queries.