NY, WI-Optimus Consulting: Trump leads in both states but WI is near 3-way tie

[Mr. Morden]

Optimus Consulting did “automated” polls (I assume that means robo-polls?) of New York and Wisconsin.  The only info I can find on them is in Politico:

http://www.politico.com/tipsheets/morning-score/2016/03/delegate-chase-tight-race-in-wisconsin-trump-running-up-the-score-in-new-york-dem-oppo-picks-up-2014-republicans-tactics-king-predicts-very-nasty-race-in-ia-04-213432

Wisconsin

Trump 29%
Kasich 27%
Cruz 25%

New York

Trump 47%
Kasich 22%
Cruz 15%

Trump leads in all but one New York CD.  In Wisconsin, Trump leads 3 CDs, Cruz leads in 2, Kasich in 1, and the other two are tossups.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

LOL Who?

[Mehmentum]

Great!  When is Megatron Analytics releasing its first poll?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

This can go straight in the traaaaaaash

[yankeesfan]

Optimus was Rubio's house pollster that had him polling close to Trump in Florida

[Mr. Morden]

Great!  When is Megatron Analytics releasing its first poll?

I'm waiting for Hot Rod Analytics.  The sample size doubles in size when you open up the polling matrix.

[Seriously?]

Optimus Consulting did “automated” polls (I assume that means robo-polls?) of New York and Wisconsin.  The only info I can find on them is in Politico:

http://www.politico.com/tipsheets/morning-score/2016/03/delegate-chase-tight-race-in-wisconsin-trump-running-up-the-score-in-new-york-dem-oppo-picks-up-2014-republicans-tactics-king-predicts-very-nasty-race-in-ia-04-213432

Wisconsin

Trump 29%
Kasich 27%
Cruz 25%

New York

Trump 47%
Kasich 22%
Cruz 15%

Trump leads in all but one New York CD.  In Wisconsin, Trump leads 3 CDs, Cruz leads in 2, Kasich in 1, and the other two are tossups.

The magic number in NY is 50%.

Over 50% is winner take all for the statewide delegates. Otherwise it's proportional, subject to a 20% floor.

For the CD delegates, you have to get to 50% to take all 3. Otherwise, it's 2/1.

[Zioneer]

I'm just mad I wasn't the first to make a Transformers joke.

Oh well, Make Cybertron Great Again and all that.

[emailking]

At my undergrad, Optimus Prime (write-in) actually won the election one year for Student Body President. He was disqualified because he had not paid activity fees. The incumbent had the 2nd most votes and won re-election. It was the year before they switched to electronic voting. Turnout was like 5%.

[Wisconsin+17]

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:lol:

Trump under 50 percent in New York is a bit of an eye opener. If Kasich gets 25 percent and Cruz gets about the same, they will cost Trump about half of his delegates.

[Vosem]

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:lol:

Trump under 50 percent in New York is a bit of an eye opener. If Kasich gets 25 percent and Cruz gets about the same, they will cost Trump about half of his delegates.

Only 14 delegates in NY are allocated statewide; so 7 of those will go to a non-_trump. There are 27 CDs, and in each of them the winner gets 3 delegates if he eclipses 50%, and gets 2 if he fails to with the second-place getting a single delegate. Let's say in slightly more than half the CDs (go with 14/27, slightly more than half), he doesn't make 50%; he'll lose 14 delegates, so he's lost 21 total, with 74 still going to him. NY is not proportional; it's pretty strongly winner-take-most and costing the winner more than half his delegates takes a strong third candidate and probably coming within 5% of him.

NY really is one of the last firewalls _trump has left. His "NY goal" on 538 is just 58 delegates, a number he seems set to overtake quite comfortably. Some of the other goals seem pretty wildly optimistic (like 40 in PA, or 10 in ND) by even more than the NY number is pessimistic, but this is a place where _trump should expect to be able to get a very big-sized boost.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I wonder which congressional district he doesn't lead. Maybe NY-20 is sufficiently establishment?

[Seriously?]

I wonder which congressional district he doesn't lead. Maybe NY-20 is sufficiently establishment?

Some of those NYC districts are so Democrat that the one or two Republilcans in it have one heck of a say.

With that said, Trump should do well there because of name/brand recognition alone in NY.

[Sir Mohamed]

Cruz will win WI.

[Simfan34]

God is good!

[Free Bird]

When can we expect Soundwave Analytics' poll?

[TJ in Oregon]

Cruz will win WI.

Yeah, I'll believe this poll if I see Marquette confirm it tomorrow. The thing is most of the Wisconsinites voting for Cruz readily admit he isn't really their first choice.

[Bacon King]

Anonymous Kasich donors paid for this poll on behalf of the Kasich campaign because the campaign doesn't have money to do it themselves. They released the results and crosstabs publicly because otherwise it would be impermissible collaboration between groups (or possibly an in-kind contribution above the legal donation limit). Note the huge sample sizes allow for an accurate subsample for each congressional district, which lets the Kasich campaign know where to target to pick up as many delegates as possible. Since Trump and Cruz campaigns are already doing polling like this, the Kasich campaign isn't even losing anything by having this data publicly available