WI- Basswood Research: Cruz leads by 5

[Landslide Lyndon]

http://freebeacon.com/politics/free-beacon-poll-cruz-expands-lead-over-trump-in-wisconsin/

Cruz         36
TRUMP      31
Kasich      21

Head to head

Cruz         48
TRUMP      36

[/]

Wow, I would have never thought he would actually pull out a win. How about that.

[Mr. Morden]

2nd choice:

Kasich 28%
Cruz 24%
Trump 14%

fav/unfav %:

Cruz 66/25% for +41%
Kasich 62/21% for +41%
Trump 52/42% for +10%

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Sounds like Kasich COULD act as a spoiler for CRUZ here.

But it seems like momentum is going in Cruz's favor here

[Gass3268]

Looking forward to the release of the Gold Standard next week.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

If Trump is viewed unfavorably by 42% within his own party in March, there's simply no way he carries WI in November. No chance.

[Ljube]

If Trump is viewed unfavorably by 42% within his own party in March, there's simply no way he carries WI in November. No chance.

He doesn't need WI. All he needs is Romney + FL + OH + PA.

[Landslide Lyndon]

If Trump is viewed unfavorably by 42% within his own party in March, there's simply no way he carries WI in November. No chance.

He doesn't need WI. All he needs is Romney + FL + OH + PA.

Piece of cake.

[Ljube]

If Trump is viewed unfavorably by 42% within his own party in March, there's simply no way he carries WI in November. No chance.

He doesn't need WI. All he needs is Romney + FL + OH + PA.

Piece of cake.

[Ljube]

If Trump is viewed unfavorably by 42% within his own party in March, there's simply no way he carries WI in November. No chance.

He doesn't need WI. All he needs is Romney + FL + OH + PA.

LOL He'll be lucky to hold AZ. Right now, he has no chance in FL and PA.

The election is not right now.

[swf541]

Whom are these people (the pollster) I dont remember them from previous cycles?

[ElectionsGuy]

For once I think I'm pretty proud of my state.

Looking forward to the release of the Gold Standard next week.

[Matty]

electionsguy, assuming you live in WI, are you getting any sort of feeling about how it will play out on GOP side?

[ElectionsGuy]

electionsguy, assuming you live in WI, are you getting any sort of feeling about how it will play out on GOP side?

Just a few days ago I thought Trump would pull it out narrowly. I'm starting to think that Cruz has the ability to win and is more likely to win by utterly destroying Trump in the WOW (Waukesha - Ozaukee - Washington) counties and by winning in the broader southeast part of the state, where most Republican votes come from.

[Holmes]

It's Free Beacon.

[Seriously?]

Whom are these people (the pollster) I dont remember them from previous cycles?

Free Beacon is run by Kristol's son-in-law. We all know what Kristol thinks about Trump. I don't know the pollster well enough to treat this similarly to a Cruz internal or something that aptly reflects the state of the race.

In any event, it's likely a single digit race right now between Trump and Cruz. We'll know more when Marquette comes out at some point next week.

[TJ in Oregon]

electionsguy, assuming you live in WI, are you getting any sort of feeling about how it will play out on GOP side?

Just a few days ago I thought Trump would pull it out narrowly. I'm starting to think that Cruz has the ability to win and is more likely to win by utterly destroying Trump in the WOW (Waukesha - Ozaukee - Washington) counties and by winning in the broader southeast part of the state, where most Republican votes come from.

I agree Cruz will likely win. I know a ton of people who don't like Cruz at all who are voting for him just because he isn't Trump. Wisconsin was always a state where Trump would be stuck somewhere in the mid 30s, it was simply a question of whether Kasich and Cruz would split their support evenly enough for him to slip though. It turns out Kasich's support is around 20%, so there's little chance of that happening. The overall polls are close, but they've overestimated Trump support by a couple points in most states and underestimated Cruz support. Perhaps this one won't given its not-so-objective sponsorship, but one would expect most polls to. It's hard to see Trump winning the north by the type of margins he'd have to to outvote the WOW counties. Plus, Sanders on the ballot keeps the Dems from rat-effing, which the Wisconsin Dems love to do as often as possible.

[Young Conservative]

This is a bad state for Trump for sure. He won't win if Cruz keeps going in the right direction

[jimrtex]

Plus, Sanders on the ballot keeps the Dems from rat-effing, which the Wisconsin Dems love to do as often as possible.

Is a public party affiliation required for the presidential preference primary?

[ElectionsGuy]

Plus, Sanders on the ballot keeps the Dems from rat-effing, which the Wisconsin Dems love to do as often as possible.

Is a public party affiliation required for the presidential preference primary?

No

[jimrtex]

Plus, Sanders on the ballot keeps the Dems from rat-effing, which the Wisconsin Dems love to do as often as possible.

Is a public party affiliation required for the presidential preference primary?

No

So how come Michigan and Washington insist on it, and Wisconsin and Montana don't?

[politicallefty]

Just a few days ago I thought Trump would pull it out narrowly. I'm starting to think that Cruz has the ability to win and is more likely to win by utterly destroying Trump in the WOW (Waukesha - Ozaukee - Washington) counties and by winning in the broader southeast part of the state, where most Republican votes come from.

Wisconsin has 42 delegates, 18 are statewide WTA with the rest being WTA by Congressional district (three each). Even if Cruz can win statewide, how do you see him doing by CD? Most of what you mention is WI-05, and perhaps some of WI-01 and WI-06. (I'm not sure how WI-04 would go in a Republican primary.)

[President Johnson]

If Trump is viewed unfavorably by 42% within his own party in March, there's simply no way he carries WI in November. No chance.

He doesn't need WI. All he needs is Romney + FL + OH + PA.

He would also win Colorado and maybe, just maybe, Michigan. I also give him a shot in Iowa and Virginia.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

If Trump is viewed unfavorably by 42% within his own party in March, there's simply no way he carries WI in November. No chance.

He doesn't need WI. All he needs is Romney + FL + OH + PA.

He would also win Colorado and maybe, just maybe, Michigan. I also give him a shot in Iowa and Virginia.

He polls worse in VA than in WI. Also, his numbers have completely collapsed in MI.