WI- Emerson: Clinton and Cruz with small leads

[ElectionsGuy]

Wisconsin is a primary, so comparing it to Iowa or Minnesota is not very accurate. If anything, Illinois or Michigan would have to be the closest (but I don't think those are good either). I'm waiting for Marquette here, Emerson is complete trash.

[ElectionsGuy]

Wisconsin is a primary, so comparing it to Iowa or Minnesota is not very accurate. If anything, Illinois or Michigan would have to be the closest (but I don't think those are good either). I'm waiting for Marquette here, Emerson is complete trash.

MU had trump up 10 ten in late feb, but still only at 30.

I'm aware of that.

[ElectionsGuy]

Keep in mind that Marquette had Clinton up 1 in their last poll, in late February, so I don't find these numbers that unbelievable (although given Emerson isn't very trustworthy I'll take it with a pinch of salt.) I definitely believe the race has moved further in Clinton's direction since then (national polling average has moved in her favor at the very least.)

Also, while Clinton's obviously way weaker with whites across the board than other races the meme that all whites vote like Idaho and Utah really needs to die. Clinton won whites in Ohio, and I see no reason she can't do it here too.

I have to disagree. Look at North Carolina, look at Michigan, Missouri, etc. If anything, its been Sanders that improved, I don't think he would've lost Iowa with his current campaign.

[ElectionsGuy]

Keep in mind that Marquette had Clinton up 1 in their last poll, in late February, so I don't find these numbers that unbelievable (although given Emerson isn't very trustworthy I'll take it with a pinch of salt.) I definitely believe the race has moved further in Clinton's direction since then (national polling average has moved in her favor at the very least.)

Also, while Clinton's obviously way weaker with whites across the board than other races the meme that all whites vote like Idaho and Utah really needs to die. Clinton won whites in Ohio, and I see no reason she can't do it here too.

Really? Look at North Carolina, look at Michigan, Missouri, etc. If anything, its been Sanders that improved, I don't think he would've lost Iowa with his current campaign.

When that Marquette poll came out, almost exactly a month ago, Clinton led 47.6-42.0 in the RCP average. Today she leads 51.3-41.7.

National polls get pretty useless though after half the nation already voted. Maybe she's doing better now, but I think since February the general trajectory has been Sanders improving.

[ElectionsGuy]

Wisconsin is a primary, so comparing it to Iowa or Minnesota is not very accurate. If anything, Illinois or Michigan would have to be the closest (but I don't think those are good either). I'm waiting for Marquette here, Emerson is complete trash.

No Wisconsin is if anything a much better state for Sanders than Michigan or Illinois.

Did you read my post, I said those aren't good comparisons either. Of course Wisconsin will be a much better state for Sanders than those two.

[ElectionsGuy]

Wisconsin has a populist tinge which naturally should help both Trump and Sanders in this state.

But Cruz has a secret weapon:

This guy is a complete asshole. Shame that he has such an influence.