WI- Emerson: Clinton and Cruz with small leads

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They also had Clinton +11 in MA a day before the primary.

And had Clinton +23 in SC a day before the primary.

michigan

[Shadows]

Emerson is junk - Go n check the methodology - If you look & the methodology, you can understand why it is junk

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

So Bernie leads?

[Mr. Morden]

Wisconsin has a populist tinge which naturally should help both Trump and Sanders in this state.

But Cruz has a secret weapon:

[Gass3268]

Were I Trump I'd be scheduling a few rallies on or near liberal college campuses.

A Trump rally in Madison would probably result in chaos, unfortunately.

[Seriously?]

Were I Trump I'd be scheduling a few rallies on or near liberal college campuses.

A Trump rally in Madison would probably result in chaos, unfortunately.

Now that would be some fun stuff to watch. All those leftists just going bat sh**t crazy over the idea of some eeevillll conservative coming to their precious university. Trump is smarter than that though, isn't he?

[Eraserhead]

They also had Clinton +11 in MA a day before the primary.

So if it means the exact same thing, Sanders squeaks by?

The point is that they're a trash pollster. It's probably best to just ignore them.

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: Wisconsin President by Emerson College on 2016-03-22

Summary:

Clinton:	50%
Sanders:	44%
Other:	1%
Undecided:	5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[ElectionsGuy]

Wisconsin has a populist tinge which naturally should help both Trump and Sanders in this state.

But Cruz has a secret weapon:

This guy is a complete asshole. Shame that he has such an influence.

[indietraveler]

Wisconsin has a populist tinge which naturally should help both Trump and Sanders in this state.

But Cruz has a secret weapon:

This guy is a complete asshole. Shame that he has such an influence.

Is this someone I should know?

[Mr. Morden]

Wisconsin has a populist tinge which naturally should help both Trump and Sanders in this state.

But Cruz has a secret weapon:

This guy is a complete asshole. Shame that he has such an influence.

Is this someone I should know?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Belling

Local conservative talk radio in the Milwaukee metro area is more influential in Republican politics than in almost any other similar-sized city, and Belling is the leading "talent".  Read The New Republic's Scott Walker story from 2014, and specifically the parts about Sykes and Belling:

https://newrepublic.com/article/118145/scott-walkers-toxic-racial-politics

[Torie]

The only CD Trump has in lockdown in Wisconsin is WI-07 (the northern part). Cruz has in lockdown the area around Oshkosh (WI-06). The rest are pretty close, although Cruz has a clear lead in WI-05, and Trump in WI-01 (Paul Ryan's CD).

Sorry, are you basing that on this poll, or just your gut feeling?  This poll does have crosstab info on the congressional districts, but the sample sizes are tiny, and don't seem to line up with what you're saying (unless I'm reading them wrong).

Samples are small, but they have the numbers on a spreadsheet for each of the eight CD's.

[TJ in Oregon]

Here's my sense of each CD:

WI-1 (Paul Ryan's SE Corner district): This should be one of the closer ones to watch, as it includes some areas that should be favorable to each candidate. One would expect the blue collar industrial cities of Janesville and Racine to vote heavily for Trump, although Rockford, IL did not and it's similar in many ways. This district also has a sizable slice of suburban Waukesha and Milwaukee Counties that we'd expect Cruz to win handily. Though the poll has Trump up big here, in the past this district has been fairly pro-establishment. Overall I'd call it Lean Trump.

WI-2 (Madison and SW): This district is dominated by Dane County, meaning it should also be one of the better Kasich districts in the state and one of the two he might have a chance of winning. Unfortunately, it also means there is some likelihood of an even Cruz/Kasich split allowing Trump to win, as is what the poll says (with a very small sample for this CD). Still, Trump's ceiling here is likely less than 40%. Overall, I'd say Trump/Cruz tossup with a small chance of Kasich.

WI-3 (Driftless Area): We have particularly little information about this district, though the poll has Trump in the lead. We'd generally expect Trump to do well in lower income rural areas like WI-3, though the Driftless Area marches to the beat of a different drummer. Overall, I'd put this one at Lean Trump.

WI-4 (Milwaukee): In most major metropolitan areas, an inner city industrial district like this one would go to Trump. But Milwaukee isn't most major metropolitan areas. For a variety of reasons, the influential Milwaukee conservative talk radio that drives Republican narratives in the area has been very anti-Trump. This district also includes the North Shore, which Kasich has won places similar to in other states. On the balance, the North Shore isn't a large enough fraction of the population for us to expect Kasich or Trump to overcome the "Germans and Poles with guns" demographic Cruz is likely to carry. This district is an oddity, because its demographics look like they should be supporting Trump but the polling says otherwise, both in this poll and the previous Marquette poll. I'd think Marquette could get right their own backyard. Lean Cruz.

WI-5 (Waukesha): This will likely be the most lopsided district in the state. Trump's approval numbers are horrendous here in the last Marquette poll. This poll has Trump down by a ton. A previous general election poll had Trump actually losing the ~70% R WOW Counties to Sanders by double digits. I'd put Cruz's under/over at winning by 30. Safe Cruz.

WI-6 (Fondy/Sheboygan/etc.): Like WI-1, this is another district that will probably have a large variation between regions. I'd expect Trump to do well in the blue collar northern parts like Oshkosh and Manitowoc. Both have large old conservaDem contingents and fit the profile of his voters. Some would put Sheboygan in that category too, though I expect it is too close to Milwaukee, too religious, and too Dutch for Trump to win there by much, if at all. I'd expect Cruz to be favored in the more white collar Fon du Lac and to clean up in Ozaukee. This poll has Cruz with a shockingly large lead here. It could be that Ozaukee County was oversampled, or that Trump's expected strong areas aren't actually that strong for him. Either way, I'd say it's lean Cruz.

WI-7 (Northwest): Basically everyone can agree this is Trump's best district in the state. It fits the bill of a declining rural area where industry jobs aren't what they used to be. It is still Wisconsin after all, and Cruz won areas of Minnesota with some resemblance. But on the whole, the demographics here likely carry the day for Trump in the only WI seat it's hard to see him losing. Likely Trump.

WI-8 (Green Bay): On paper this district looks like it should be a lock for Trump too, but the poll actually shows Cruz ahead by a small margin. This is a blue collar district, but a more religious one than most. Perhaps that's why Trump's numbers are underwhelming for the area's socioeconomic status. Throughout electoral history, Green Bay has always been in it's own little world to some extent, so it's hard to tell exactly what's going on there. In addition to Cruz leading the poll here, the extent of Cruz's lead in neighboring WI-6, which is the most similar place to compare to, suggests that maybe it's not just a sampling error and Cruz actually does have a chance in Green Bay. If I were Ted, I'd be on a flight to here ASAP. Cruz/Trump Tossup.