WI- Emerson: Clinton and Cruz with small leads
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  WI- Emerson: Clinton and Cruz with small leads
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Author Topic: WI- Emerson: Clinton and Cruz with small leads  (Read 7409 times)
IceSpear
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« Reply #25 on: March 23, 2016, 03:57:42 PM »

This poll was conducted before Clinton got destroyed in the Mormon corridor though. Wisconsinites actually take their cues from Mormons. You know the old saying, as Utah and Idaho go, so goes Wisconsin.

Utah is the harbinger for the nation. checkmate drumpf and shrillery
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #26 on: March 23, 2016, 03:57:52 PM »

TRUMP has only have had leads in MO & Ga polls.
Huh What about New Hampshire, Iowa, South Carolina, Nevada and every other state???
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dspNY
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« Reply #27 on: March 23, 2016, 04:04:03 PM »

I actually think Sanders has a small lead here but it looks like Wisconsin will be close and that is like a loss for Sanders when you take his delegate deficit into account. That being said, Massachusetts was thought to be very fertile ground for Sanders with few African Americans and a high % of white liberals and Hillary won Mass
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Gass3268
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« Reply #28 on: March 23, 2016, 04:07:01 PM »

Keep in mind that Marquette had Clinton up 1 in their last poll, in late February, so I don't find these numbers that unbelievable (although given Emerson isn't very trustworthy I'll take it with a pinch of salt.) I definitely believe the race has moved further in Clinton's direction since then (national polling average has moved in her favor at the very least.)

Also, while Clinton's obviously way weaker with whites across the board than other races the meme that all whites vote like Idaho and Utah really needs to die. Clinton won whites in Ohio, and I see no reason she can't do it here too.

Really? Look at North Carolina, look at Michigan, Missouri, etc. If anything, its been Sanders that improved, I don't think he would've lost Iowa with his current campaign.

When that Marquette poll came out, almost exactly a month ago, Clinton led 47.6-42.0 in the RCP average. Today she leads 51.3-41.7.

No one has campaigned yet in Wisconsin. Let's wait and see what happens over the next two weeks.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #29 on: March 23, 2016, 04:07:24 PM »

Keep in mind that Marquette had Clinton up 1 in their last poll, in late February, so I don't find these numbers that unbelievable (although given Emerson isn't very trustworthy I'll take it with a pinch of salt.) I definitely believe the race has moved further in Clinton's direction since then (national polling average has moved in her favor at the very least.)

Also, while Clinton's obviously way weaker with whites across the board than other races the meme that all whites vote like Idaho and Utah really needs to die. Clinton won whites in Ohio, and I see no reason she can't do it here too.

Really? Look at North Carolina, look at Michigan, Missouri, etc. If anything, its been Sanders that improved, I don't think he would've lost Iowa with his current campaign.

When that Marquette poll came out, almost exactly a month ago, Clinton led 47.6-42.0 in the RCP average. Today she leads 51.3-41.7.

National polls get pretty useless though after half the nation already voted. Maybe she's doing better now, but I think since February the general trajectory has been Sanders improving.
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BRTD
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« Reply #30 on: March 23, 2016, 04:21:13 PM »

Wisconsin is a primary, so comparing it to Iowa or Minnesota is not very accurate. If anything, Illinois or Michigan would have to be the closest (but I don't think those are good either). I'm waiting for Marquette here, Emerson is complete trash.

No Wisconsin is if anything a much better state for Sanders than Michigan or Illinois.
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BRTD
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« Reply #31 on: March 23, 2016, 04:26:48 PM »

This poll was conducted before Clinton got destroyed in the Mormon corridor though. Wisconsinites actually take their cues from Mormons. You know the old saying, as Utah and Idaho go, so goes Wisconsin.

Not that I expect much of a boost for him but if you look at the exit polls of past in Utah and Idaho and read the demographics it's clearly not Mormons who are driving the Democratic primaries.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #32 on: March 23, 2016, 04:30:08 PM »

If the white progressive insurgent candidate can't even win Wisconsin then he should drop out the next day, honestly.
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Liberalrocks
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« Reply #33 on: March 23, 2016, 04:36:29 PM »

This poll was conducted before Clinton got destroyed in the Mormon corridor though. Wisconsinites actually take their cues from Mormons. You know the old saying, as Utah and Idaho go, so goes Wisconsin.

Ugh your sarcasm is unbearable. Don't blame your bf for watching TYT, you would drive me to do the same damn thing.
I thought it was funny'
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #34 on: March 23, 2016, 04:38:53 PM »

The only CD Trump has in lockdown in Wisconsin is WI-07 (the northern part). Cruz has in lockdown the area around Oshkosh (WI-06). The rest are pretty close, although Cruz has a clear lead in WI-05, and Trump in WI-01 (Paul Ryan's CD).

I would imagine Trump wins WI-04 too, since it's almost entirely city of Milwaukee and he does well with Whites who have to live amongst "those people"
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #35 on: March 23, 2016, 04:46:02 PM »

Based on this poll I expect the results to be Sanders +14 and Cruz +11.
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Yan
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« Reply #36 on: March 23, 2016, 04:47:09 PM »

This poll was conducted before Clinton got destroyed in the Mormon corridor though. Wisconsinites actually take their cues from Mormons. You know the old saying, as Utah and Idaho go, so goes Wisconsin.

Ugh your sarcasm is unbearable. Don't blame your bf for watching TYT, you would drive me to do the same damn thing.
I thought it was funny'

To be fair to Idiot Canuck, it's pretty difficult to laugh when your head is stuck up your ass.

Gentlemen, can we please just agree that you're both insufferable, juvenile douchebags and get on with our lives?
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #37 on: March 23, 2016, 04:55:59 PM »
« Edited: March 23, 2016, 04:59:28 PM by Wiz in Wis »

This poll was conducted before Clinton got destroyed in the Mormon corridor though. Wisconsinites actually take their cues from Mormons. You know the old saying, as Utah and Idaho go, so goes Wisconsin.

Ugh your sarcasm is unbearable. Don't blame your bf for watching TYT, you would drive me to do the same damn thing.
I thought it was funny'

To be fair to Idiot Canuck, it's pretty difficult to laugh when your head is stuck up your ass.

Gentlemen, can we please just agree that you're both insufferable, juvenile douchebags and get on with our lives?

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Matty
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« Reply #38 on: March 23, 2016, 05:04:01 PM »

Is WI one of those states where you can theoretically win by .2% and get like 90% of the delegates?
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Vosem
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« Reply #39 on: March 23, 2016, 05:51:19 PM »

Is WI one of those states where you can theoretically win by .2% and get like 90% of the delegates?

The state winner gets 18 delegates, and the winner of each CD gets 3. It's theoretically possible to win by 0.2% and get all 42 delegates, though this is obviously unlikely.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #40 on: March 23, 2016, 06:10:16 PM »

I expect the actual results to be Sanders +8 and Trump + 9 in the end
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Ronnie
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« Reply #41 on: March 23, 2016, 06:14:37 PM »
« Edited: March 23, 2016, 06:16:23 PM by Ronnie »

I expect the actual results to be Sanders +8 and Trump + 9 in the end

If Trump and Cruz are tied and undecideds always break against Trump when push comes to shove, why do you think he'll win by 9 points?  Not to mention, Walker hasn't even begun campaigning for Cruz yet.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #42 on: March 23, 2016, 06:16:52 PM »

Wisconsin is a primary, so comparing it to Iowa or Minnesota is not very accurate. If anything, Illinois or Michigan would have to be the closest (but I don't think those are good either). I'm waiting for Marquette here, Emerson is complete trash.

No Wisconsin is if anything a much better state for Sanders than Michigan or Illinois.

Huh Did you read my post, I said those aren't good comparisons either. Of course Wisconsin will be a much better state for Sanders than those two.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #43 on: March 23, 2016, 06:17:29 PM »

I expect the actual results to be Sanders +8 and Trump + 9 in the end

If Trump and Cruz are tied and undecideds always break against Trump when push comes to shove, why do you think he'll end up with a 9 point lead?  Not to mention, Walker hasn't even begun campaigning for Cruz yet.

Wisconsin has a populist tinge which naturally should help both Trump and Sanders in this state. I want to see the Marquette poll first.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #44 on: March 23, 2016, 06:19:16 PM »

The only CD Trump has in lockdown in Wisconsin is WI-07 (the northern part). Cruz has in lockdown the area around Oshkosh (WI-06). The rest are pretty close, although Cruz has a clear lead in WI-05, and Trump in WI-01 (Paul Ryan's CD).

Sorry, are you basing that on this poll, or just your gut feeling?  This poll does have crosstab info on the congressional districts, but the sample sizes are tiny, and don't seem to line up with what you're saying (unless I'm reading them wrong).
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pppolitics
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« Reply #45 on: March 23, 2016, 06:53:13 PM »

I think everyone keep forgetting that Wisconsin is an open primary which helps Trump.
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Reluctant Republican
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« Reply #46 on: March 23, 2016, 06:58:49 PM »

Were I Trump I'd be scheduling a few rallies on or near liberal college campuses.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #47 on: March 23, 2016, 07:56:31 PM »

I expect the actual results to be Sanders +8 and Trump + 9 in the end

If Trump and Cruz are tied and undecideds always break against Trump when push comes to shove, why do you think he'll win by 9 points?  Not to mention, Walker hasn't even begun campaigning for Cruz yet.
No offense to Walker, but governors backing a candidate in this cycle hasn't exactly ended well for that candidate in a number of the primaries. Almost so much so where the endorsements are meaningless. (see Hailey in SC, LePage in ME, etc).
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #48 on: March 23, 2016, 08:13:24 PM »

They also had Clinton +11 in MA a day before the primary.
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Bigby
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« Reply #49 on: March 23, 2016, 08:17:44 PM »

They also had Clinton +11 in MA a day before the primary.

So if it means the exact same thing, Sanders squeaks by?
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