UT-Dan Jones & Associates: Trump loses to both Clinton and Sanders

[Figueira]

There's also the fact that if he's doing this badly with Mormons, that's terrible news for his chances in Nevada and even Arizona.

[Ljube]

TRUMP will win Utah by a single digit margin, but he doesn't need blowout margins of +30% anywhere. To win, a candidate must have ONE vote more than the closest opponent in each of the states comprising his winning states that add up to 270 (It's 270 for TRUMP and not 269, cause he cannot rely on the House of Representatives).

You don't say? The point here is that if he's in trouble in UT, he's already lost the election in a landslide.

Btw: Stop this TRUMP nonsense. It's not even remotely cool or funny anymore.

OK, I'll stop with the bold print. I reserve the right to type TRUMP in case he has a good night (say he wins all 95 delegates in New York).

About the first thing, the point here is that if he is in trouble in UT, that doesn't mean he is in trouble everywhere. UT is majority Mormon and Mormons don't like Trump.
In fact, I think that him underperforming with certain groups and making certain states closer, yet still Trump wins (Texas, Arizona, Utah - all single digit wins, possibly low single digit), or making Clinton blowout states even bigger blowouts (California, Oregon, Washington - huge Clinton wins) will have exhausted his GE national polling deficit. So, he will be in a unique position to win the EC and lose the PV badly.

[Virginiá]

If the Clinton machine legitimately thinks Utah is a viable target this summer/fall, then we will see her put resources into that state. Given that they do lots of polling and have other sources of information on this, them contesting the state would be a pretty damning sign imo.

[Virginiá]

So, he will be in a unique position to win the EC and lose the PV badly.

Honestly, that is a real stretch. The kind of PV margins you are probably talking about would be unprecedented in combination with an EV win. The popular vote can deviate a bit but in general it does stay at least somewhat close to EV outcomes. And before anyone says "this election cycle has been so far out of the norm that anything is possible!", it's worth noting that there are limits and using that blanket excuse is a bad argument.

I sure as hell wouldn't bank on such an outcome.

[Ljube]

Him wiining the EC requires winning states like FL or WI, which isn't happening if he's only winning TX or UT by 5-10 points. As simple as that.

Why do you think so? The margins of victory in TX and FL are independent of each other.
He could lose TX Hispanics by a blowout and lose some Establishment TX Republican votes, but win FL by GWB's margin.

[Ljube]

So, he will be in a unique position to win the EC and lose the PV badly.

Honestly, that is a real stretch. The kind of PV margins you are probably talking about would be unprecedented in combination with an EV win. The popular vote can deviate a bit but in general it does stay at least somewhat close to EV outcomes. And before anyone says "this election cycle has been so far out of the norm that anything is possible!", it's worth noting that there are limits and using that blanket excuse is a bad argument.

I sure as hell wouldn't bank on such an outcome.

Virginia, we know that his base are white low education males and working class voters (whites and others). These are disproportionally concentrated in PA, MI and OH. I don't see why he couldn't win there by small margins and yet lose elsewhere by a lot bigger margins and lose the PV, but win the EV.

[Sorenroy]

I noticed this was entered into the database as a Democrat +2 win, however I thought that polls were entered as the top three republicans against Clinton, which would make this a +19 Republican poll.

Well:

Hi,
At this point, all polls should not be Clinton-Trump until/unless something changes.

Thanks,
Dave

Thanks. Also, is this something that will change the numbers going backwards in the database? I assume no, but I could be wrong.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The electorate  is looking  like the nation, finally, 60% White, 20% Latino, 13% Black. GOP cant rely on more than 70 % of white vote any more. While nation gets more diverse.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

TRUMP win without UT:

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems are winning WI.

[indietraveler]

It'll be interesting to see follow-up polls. If there's an establishment third party nominee this swings Utah and maybe surrounding states into the D column pretty easy. In a two way race this is still Trump's to lose.

[Crumpets]

I expect Trump would win by the time November comes around, but the fact that he might have to spend money making sure freaking Utah votes for him, it doesn't bode well for his campaign in more traditional swing states.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump is polling Mitt Romney levels and polls around the same. He was suppose to confine Dems to a close election, but, the UT poll isnt relevant but Iowa River Valley does and he trails in Iowa, Ohio & Va.

[Virginiá]

Virginia, we know that his base are white low education males and working class voters (whites and others). These are disproportionally concentrated in PA, MI and OH. I don't see why he couldn't win there by small margins and yet lose elsewhere by a lot bigger margins and lose the PV, but win the EV.

Right, but him over-performing with certain groups in certain areas will also be balanced out by Clinton over-performing with groups that repudiate Trump. This will bring more balance to the PV. Trump, or really most plausible candidates at that, generally cannot over-perform so significantly as to create a large lopsided PV/EV result.

But I'll be clear - If this outcome prediction in UT bears fruit, then there isn't any reason that Trump couldn't theoretically pull a similar win somewhere else. I will give you that, but I'm just saying that to create a large deviation from PV/EV result is highly unlikely.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Holy s**t. If this is accurate and Mormons really do hate Trump that much, he might be in legitimate trouble in Wyoming and Idaho.

And here I thought I was joking when I said I might be the vote that swings my state to Clinton...

Wyoming is only about 10% Mormon, so it would probably still go for Trump.

Idaho is 25%; that could be a state to watch.

[Former Senator Haslam2020]

WTF JUST HAPPENED

[Mr. Smith]

For goodness sake, this is an early poll.

And at the end of the day, it's Hillary-hate that will determine Utah, especially since Mormons are mostly reacting to his current primary campaign.

Unless trump really doubles down with his current campaign, he'll probably win the state by high single digits or low double digits instead what the GOP usually gets. After all, the immoral Republican is at least a Republican.

[Ronnie]

Regardless of whether or not the poll's snapshot will hold up in the fall, I expect it will be plastered on the screen during hypothetical presentations to delegates from the Cruz and Kasich campaigns at a contested convention.  If it doesn't freak them out, then I don't know what will.

[RR1997]

Why do Mormons hate Trump so much?

Mormons are typically pro-immigration because it's the moral position.

Mormons are typically very moral people and hate the fact that Trump says very offensive things. They hate the fact that Trump says racist, sexist, and xenophobic things.

They see Trump as an immoral person who isn't religious and has done very bad things.

[P123]

I could easily see a third party candidate getting 20%+ in Utah this election (which will happen).

Imagine Clinton winning Utah and Trump winning Pennsylvania! Utah a SWING STATE.

[Anna Komnene]

Wow.  With these numbers, I bet Matheson and McAdams are kicking themselves for not jumping in the Senate race!

[pbrower2a]

Why do Mormons hate Trump so much?

His business dealings (heavy involvement in gambling casinos, which Mormons find abominable not only for gambling but also heavy smoking and drinking. Devout Mormons do not gamble, smoke, or drink.

Multiple failed marriages and a child out of wedlock.

Hostility to people (illegal aliens) that Mormons consider potential targets for proselytizing in America. 

[Maxwell]

If Utah is going badly, watch Kansas as well - though Kansas isn't mormon, the culture there seems to be similar. A lot of nice guy, family values moderate Republicans who would jump ship over Trump.

[Ebowed]

Utah cares about family values.  That is why they are unsure about Donald Trump - he's not merely vulgar and clearly worships himself, but through his immoral immigration policies, he wants to tear families apart and destroy even more lives.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

LOL! Wouldn't it be hilarious if Jim Matheson had to rely on Bernie Sanders' coattails to get elected? That's assuming he runs for Senate.