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  Talk Elections
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  2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls
  Utah-Y2 Analytics Poll: Cruz +24
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Author Topic: Utah-Y2 Analytics Poll: Cruz +24  (Read 5789 times)
Fargobison
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« on: March 19, 2016, 07:46:34 pm »
« edited: March 19, 2016, 07:48:19 pm by Fargobison »

Cruz 53
Kasich 29
Trump 11

http://kutv.com/news/local/new-poll-puts-ted-cruz-well-ahead-in-utah-gop-presidential-race
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #1 on: March 19, 2016, 07:48:26 pm »

Utah is my new favorite state.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #2 on: March 19, 2016, 07:59:19 pm »

Mormons really, really, REALLY hate TRUMP.
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indietraveler
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« Reply #3 on: March 19, 2016, 08:08:59 pm »

Wow, I knew Cruz would be ahead but I had doubts about him breaking 50. Not upset about being wrong on that Smiley
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #4 on: March 19, 2016, 08:10:35 pm »

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SunriseAroundTheWorld
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« Reply #5 on: March 19, 2016, 08:10:58 pm »

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IceSpear
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« Reply #6 on: March 19, 2016, 08:16:05 pm »

Good lord.

I wonder what UT will look like in the general. How well will third parties do? Will Trump get held under 60%?
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #7 on: March 19, 2016, 08:19:01 pm »

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Ronnie
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« Reply #8 on: March 19, 2016, 08:21:25 pm »

Whoa, I thought Trump would at least make it into the mid to high teens.  Goes to show how terrible of a fit he is for the state.
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Ted Bessell
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« Reply #9 on: March 19, 2016, 08:23:17 pm »

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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #10 on: March 19, 2016, 08:23:54 pm »

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Xing
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« Reply #11 on: March 19, 2016, 08:24:02 pm »

Good lord.

I wonder what UT will look like in the general. How well will third parties do? Will Trump get held under 60%?

Obvious GE result:
Clinton 35%
Johnson 30%
Write-in Romney 25%
Write-in Cruz 9.99%
Trump 0.01%

/s

Will this be the first time Trump gets last place?
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #12 on: March 19, 2016, 08:26:27 pm »
« Edited: March 19, 2016, 08:32:31 pm by ElectionsGuy »

I collected the votes for every Mormon majority county in Idaho (Utah is majority Mormon, so I thought it could tell us what's coming)

Cruz: 25,181 (51.6%)
Rubio: 12,731 (26.1%)
Trump: 8,197 (16.8%)
Kasich: 2,695 (5.5%)

Percentages are of the four candidates only. It ends up pretty reflective of the poll actually. So, pretty much all the Rubio vote is transferring to Kasich and Trump is staying in third. It'll be even worse for Trump since its a caucus, too.
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Deranged California Suburbanite
Fubart Solman
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« Reply #13 on: March 19, 2016, 08:38:09 pm »

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Fargobison
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« Reply #14 on: March 19, 2016, 08:48:11 pm »

I guess it gets slightly better for Trump in the general...the Mormon hate is strong....



https://twitter.com/PatrickRuffini/status/711367771943206912
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #15 on: March 19, 2016, 09:04:18 pm »

I collected the votes for every Mormon majority county in Idaho (Utah is majority Mormon, so I thought it could tell us what's coming)

Cruz: 25,181 (51.6%)
Rubio: 12,731 (26.1%)
Trump: 8,197 (16.8%)
Kasich: 2,695 (5.5%)

Percentages are of the four candidates only. It ends up pretty reflective of the poll actually. So, pretty much all the Rubio vote is transferring to Kasich and Trump is staying in third. It'll be even worse for Trump since its a caucus, too.


Another indicator, NV counties on the UT border (excluding Clark):

Cruz: 1283 (41.6%)
TRUMP: 854 (27.7%)
Rubio: 647 (21%)
Carson: 225 (7.3%)
Kasich: 57 (1.8%)
Bush: 9 (0.03%)
Paul: 8 (0.03%)

So, not as wide of a victory, but still a clear win for Cruz. If we take out the withdrawn candidates, it goes to:

Cruz: 1283 (58.5%)
TRUMP: 854 (38.9%)
Kasich: 57 (2.6%)

Which would be TRUMP's worst nightmare.




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Mehmentum
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« Reply #16 on: March 19, 2016, 09:05:57 pm »

I guess it gets slightly better for Trump in the general...the Mormon hate is strong....



https://twitter.com/PatrickRuffini/status/711367771943206912
Jesus.  That means only 37% of Republican voters would vote for him. 
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #17 on: March 19, 2016, 09:07:29 pm »

So Kasich wins Summit County? 
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IceSpear
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« Reply #18 on: March 19, 2016, 09:08:42 pm »

I guess it gets slightly better for Trump in the general...the Mormon hate is strong....



https://twitter.com/PatrickRuffini/status/711367771943206912
Jesus.  That means only 37% of Republican voters would vote for him. 

Polls like that this early are always going to exaggerate the effect though. A substantial amount will "come home" as the months pass, the question is how many.
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Representative Spiral
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« Reply #19 on: March 19, 2016, 09:10:31 pm »

What I find most amusing is that Trump got in the mid-to-high teens in several polls last year with many more candidates running then.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #20 on: March 19, 2016, 09:22:40 pm »

What I find most amusing is that Trump got in the mid-to-high teens in several polls last year with many more candidates running then.

Probably the Romney effect.
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bigedlb
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« Reply #21 on: March 19, 2016, 09:25:31 pm »

Bishop Mitt says, "Vote Cruz. So let it be written, so let it be done".

Completely isolated from the rest of the world.
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EliteLX
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« Reply #22 on: March 19, 2016, 09:39:05 pm »

From the man himself:

MORMONS HATE LIARS
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RBH
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« Reply #23 on: March 19, 2016, 09:40:35 pm »

7% of the 2012 Romney vote going to a Dem puts the Dems at 30%, around a midpoint between Obama 08 and Obama 12.

The Mormon swing to Romney almost certainly swings back Dem a little.

a Trump, Hillary, other poll for Utah seems like it'd be a total mess at the moment.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #24 on: March 19, 2016, 09:48:44 pm »

I guess it gets slightly better for Trump in the general...the Mormon hate is strong....



https://twitter.com/PatrickRuffini/status/711367771943206912
Jesus.  That means only 37% of Republican voters would vote for him. 

Highly doubtful. And it's not like Trump needs that much support in Utah to beat any Democrat. Utah is to the Republicans what DC is to the Democrats.
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