Another poll for WV Senate

[Sam Spade]

http://www.dailymail.com/news/News/2005060329/

Still a big if to me, and we know the record of the Charleston Daily Mail, but as far as I know, this is a non-partisan poll.  However, as Vorlon always says, one poll doesn't mean much, two polls means more, and so on and so forth.
Byrd, Capito race too close to call

Therese Smith Cox
Daily Mail staff

Friday June 03, 2005

A new poll shows Sen. Robert Byrd and Rep. Shelley Moore Capito would run neck and neck in a possible campaign for the Senate seat now held by Byrd.

An RMS Strategies Poll released today reports that 46 percent of 401 registered voters in West Virginia would vote for Byrd if the election were held now.

A total of 43 percent picked Capito, R-W.Va., though she has not announced her intention to run.

And 11 percent said they were undecided -- a percentage that could sway the vote either way.

Byrd, a powerful Democrat in his seventh term, dismissed the telephone poll conducted between May 11 and 18 as one of many attempts to predict the outcome of a race a full year and a half in the future.

"They'll all be different," Byrd said. "But no poll can change my job of fighting for West Virginians. People have more important things to worry about right now than that election -- Social Security and health care and taking care of their children.

"My job is to use my experience, seniority and know-how to fight for the people of West Virginia each and every day."

Byrd has not formally announced he will seek an eighth term, but his campaign has been aggressively raising money. In the first three months of this year, freshman Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., helped Byrd raise $1.16 million.

The possible race will be closely monitored as a Capito win could affect the Senate's current political balance of 55 Republicans, 44 Democrats and one Independent.

Capito also said she is focused on her current job in the House of Representatives and her effort to pass an energy bill, create jobs and provide affordable health care.

Still, she said she was flattered that many West Virginians have encouraged her to run for the Senate.

"I intend to keep my options open for 2006 and make a decision in the coming months," Capito said.

Political analyst Robert Rupp of West Virginia Wesleyan College said the poll could indicate such a race would be very tight.

"It is basically a tie," Rupp said. "This shows it's surprisingly close. This means by just putting her name out, she has done very well with this snapshot."

Because Byrd has never been strongly challenged during his nearly half-century in office, the potential campaign would cover "all new territory for West Virginia," Rupp said.

"This poll shows it might be a harder race than what some proponents suggest," he said.

RMS Strategies interviewers used random-digit dialing generated by computer to select respondents, who represented all 55 counties.

Those interviewed included a representative portion of registered voters based on age, gender, race, family income and political party affiliation. Both listed and unlisted telephone households had equal chances of being selected.

Researchers are 95 percent certain that results won't be more than plus or minus 4.9 percent off the actual mark.

In the poll, Byrd received a 62 percent very favorable or somewhat favorable opinion from voters in the state, compared to 33 percent who gave him an unfavorable rating.

Fifty-seven percent of respondents said they hold a very or somewhat favorable opinion of Capito while 19 percent gave her an unfavorable rating.

[Joe Kakistocracy]

Well I don't know about this poll, but Bob Byrd could stand in front of the state capitol and wipe his ass with the state flag on live television, and still get re-elected with a sizeable majority.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Key thing here is a sample size of 401. Any more details? Unless mine eyes doth decieve me (and it's possible: I've not been in front of a computor screen for a week) but the approval ratings in the poll don't gel with the matchup.

[Sam Spade]

Key thing here is a sample size of 401. Any more details? Unless mine eyes doth decieve me (and it's possible: I've not been in front of a computor screen for a week) but the approval ratings in the poll don't gel with the matchup.

I'll agree with the sample size, it is sort of small.  The approval rating gap I noticed, but there's nothing to indicate any push polling that would result in the lower matchup numbers.  Of course, I don't have access to the full poll, so how would I really know that.

The only rational explanation I have for that is maybe West Virginians like Byrd, but are concerned about Byrd's age and health.

That's not unreasonable, but I haven't really seen that come up in polls before typically.

[Moooooo]

Dear GOP,

Please put up Shelly Capito.  Please dump a ton of money into this race.  Please?

-Nick

[Sam Spade]

Another thing:  I have been totally ignoring, just based on my beliefs about Byrd, the fact that he has been actively campaigning all year, outreaching to Barack Obama to campaign with him and raising over $1,000,000 in the first quarter of this year.

[Moooooo]

Another thing:  I have been totally ignoring, just based on my beliefs about Byrd, the fact that he has been actively campaigning all year, outreaching to Barack Obama to campaign with him and raising over $1,000,000 in the first quarter of this year.

Another thing:  Just about every road, school, and shopping center is named after Byrd.  Free advertising...

[AuH2O]

I think Capito could do respectably well, but the only real purpose of a run that I can see is to tire Byrd out some more so he definitely quits after this next term. And since that does not benefit Capito, I don't think she'll run. Why not wait until Byrd retires?

More importantly, the GOP needs to work WV over from top to bottom... lay the groundwork for the future, when Byrd retires/dies and the same for Rockefeller. This poll is at least good news for when there's an open race, assuming Capito is still around.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

More importantly, the GOP needs to work WV over from top to bottom... lay the groundwork for the future

Won't happen. The WV GOP is in such a poor state that it's not worth the national GOP helping work out what words like "organisation" mean...

[TheresNoMoney]

I think Capito could do respectably well, but the only real purpose of a run that I can see is to tire Byrd out some more so he definitely quits after this next term.

He may be dead before the end of his next term.

[AuH2O]

More importantly, the GOP needs to work WV over from top to bottom... lay the groundwork for the future

Won't happen. The WV GOP is in such a poor state that it's not worth the national GOP helping work out what words like "organisation" mean...

You mean like the Georgia GOP 10 years ago?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I've not noticed any major new demographic changes in WV recently (certainly nothing on the scale of the growth of the Atlanta metro recently) and I can't think of a lot of elected officials who might switch parties. Maybe a few round Keyser?

[AuH2O]

There don't need to be any demographic changes.

WV has trended hard GOP nationally due in large part to social issues, but unionization is collapsing and Democrats have becomes more pro-business in response. There's no reason the GOP can't do well in WV.

My point is that it takes time to start from the ground up, so they better get going.

[Sam Spade]

Another thing:  I have been totally ignoring, just based on my beliefs about Byrd, the fact that he has been actively campaigning all year, outreaching to Barack Obama to campaign with him and raising over $1,000,000 in the first quarter of this year.

Another thing:  Just about every road, school, and shopping center is named after Byrd.  Free advertising...

That's not answering my point. 

Why is Byrd campaigning and raising money like he's Rick Santorum?

This is a legit question, even if you don't think the poll is legit at all.

[opebo]

but unionization is collapsing and Democrats have becomes more pro-business in response. There's no reason the GOP can't do well in WV.

It is true, WV is rapidly becoming even poorer, and soon the descendants of formerly Democratic voters will be falling into that great mass of too-poor-to-vote, at least consistently. 

[Schmitz in 1972]

Joe Republic put it very well (albeit a bit bluntly)

As long as Bob keeps his lofty position on the appropriations committee Brydland, er, West Virginia will keep electing him

[Moooooo]

That's not answering my point. 

Why is Byrd campaigning and raising money like he's Rick Santorum?

This is a legit question, even if you don't think the poll is legit at all.

Probably because Byrd is going to have a somewhat formidable candidate running against him this time.  He's old and won't be able to get out and campaign.  He will probably rely on TV, Radio, and Internet ad's... All of which are not cheap.

[AkSaber]

Strange. WV is 2 to 1 Dem. Is there some kind of large shift in politics taking place there?

[Smash255]

Strange. WV is 2 to 1 Dem. Is there some kind of large shift in politics taking place there?

WV is VERY VERY populist.  Liberal on economic issues, but quite conservative on social issues.  The last few years social issues have gotten more & more attention & WV virginia voters have basicallys witched from voting on economics to voting on social issues.  2004 weent to Bush by double digits, he still would have won the state but a decent amount, but they way Kerry pulled out of the state made things worse than they otherwise would have been.  I personally think this poll is an outlier, so we will see whn more polls come out

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There don't need to be any demographic changes.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Why is Byrd campaigning and raising money like he's Rick Santorum?

My guess is that he's trying to scare off any possible challengers. If none emerge the money will... er... "re-emerge" to fund campaigns further down the ticket.

Oh, and there hasn't really been a big shift in WV politics for a long time; the big issues are the same as they were in 1960; "food", flag, God. A crude but pretty accurate summary all told IMO. There's been some changes within the WV Democrats of late; the more populist side have been getting more powerful as the more conservative side declines; the two have been at loggerheads since a certain congressional race in the mid '70's...

As for demographic changes, there's been a steady-ish pattern of de-industrialisation and out-migration for a long time; it's weakend the Democrats somewhat but hasn't benifited the GOP.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Actually, what has happened is that Byrd has changed from being a moderately conservative Democrat to a raving left wing kook.

Since the Democrats lost the White House, control of the Senate as well as of the House, Byrd has lost influence.

Oh, to give you an idea of Byrd's change, here is an assortment of his ACU ratings over the years.

1972     55%
1984     50
1996     26
2004       8

Byrd's power was at its apex from 1977-1980 when he was majority leader in the Senate while the Democrats controlled both houses of Congress as well as the Presidency.

[Lincoln Republican]

At the end of their current terms, if they all live that long, it is time, in fact, past time, for all the senile octogenarians in the U.S. Senate to pack it in. 

That goes for the senior Senator from West Virginia.

Strom Thurmond stayed far too long, the people of Tennessee kept voting for him for far too long, the GOP in Tennessee kept giving him the nomination for far too long.

The same can be said for Robert Byrd on the Dem side in West Virginia.

Bright, younger Senators are needed from all these states that keep sending these worn out wind bags to the halls of power.

That goes for both parties.   

[phk]

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South Carolina

[CARLHAYDEN]

At the end of their current terms, if they all live that long, it is time, in fact, past time, for all the senile octogenarians in the U.S. Senate to pack it in. 

That goes for the senior Senator from West Virginia.

Strom Thurmond stayed far too long, the people of Tennessee kept voting for him for far too long, the GOP in Tennessee kept giving him the nomination for far too long.

The same can be said for Robert Byrd on the Dem side in West Virginia.

Bright, younger Senators are needed from all these states that keep sending these worn out wind bags to the halls of power.

That goes for both parties.   

Hate to say it, but phknrocket1h is right, Thurmond was from South Carolina.