538 publishes first 50-state primary prediction (based solely on demographics) (user search)
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  538 publishes first 50-state primary prediction (based solely on demographics) (search mode)
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Author Topic: 538 publishes first 50-state primary prediction (based solely on demographics)  (Read 2885 times)
RJEvans
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« on: March 17, 2016, 12:15:03 PM »
« edited: March 17, 2016, 12:17:00 PM by RJEvans »

Well, they predicted right.

If we look back at their demographic projection and extrapolate delegates based on those projections, you get Clinton 1167, Sanders 818. NYT has them at 1139 and 825 respectively. I say that's a pretty accurate result. Looking ahead, based on their demographic predictions, Clinton wins an additional 1040 delegates and Sanders wins an additional 980. Clinton wins the nomination with about 370 pledged delegates to spare. She will have to wait until June 7 to officially say she is the nominee. If she can get another 145-150 superdelegates, she can win it outright on May 17. I'm sure her people are on this.

BTW, what is it about SD that favored Clinton in '08 and favors her now?
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