Election 1988: Reagan impeached

[Sir Mohamed]

What would have happened in the 1988 election, if Reagan had been impeached due to the Iran-Contra scandal in 1987? Bush 41 is prez now. Does Iran Contro hurt him so much that he loses?

[Mr. Smith]

Yes, yes he does.

HW wasn't even that popular in the first place, and pretty much won on Willie Horton.

[President Johnson]

Bush would have lost by a wide margin, yes. However, I think there would have been a completely different race on the Democratic side with a stronger candidate than Dukakis.

Senator Lawton Chiles (D-FL)/Governor Michael Dukakis (D-MA): 376 EV. (52.75%)
President George H.W. Bush (R-TX)/Vice President Jack Kemp (R-NY): 162 EV. (46.33%)

[Agonized-Statism]

It backfires IMO. The Senate fails to convict, and when rumors come out that Democrats want to try removing Reagan via the 25th Amendment, the public reacts negatively. Reagan's mental decline is pitied by swing voters, who fall for the line that the impeachment is just nasty partisan politics ahead of the election, while a lot of Republicans think there was nothing wrong at all with breaking the law to help the Contras. The drama does suck up a lot of airtime, however, so fewer Dukakis gaffes or Bush dog whistles. Liberals are also energized to vote.


Vice President George Bush (R-TX) / Senator Dan Quayle (R-IN) ✓
Governor Michael Dukakis (D-MA) / Senator Lloyd Bentsen (D-TX)