Republican Ides of March Tuesday results thread (N. Marianas start at 4:30am ET)

[Matty]

Practically does Trump even have to get 1237 to win on the first ballot. There will be a number of unpledged delegates from various places going to the convention. I don't know how many but if he is over 1150 could they be enough to give him a win anyway?

highly highly doubtful trump gets many unpledged.

[muon2]

Kasich now has two delegates leading in IL-10 along with 3 in IL-7 and 2 in IL-9. One in IL-6 is a possibility, too (out of third by 24 votes).

Cruz has a lead with 2 delegates in IL-13, 1 in IL-15, 1 in IL-16, 2 in IL-17 and all three in IL-18.

Love it muon.


According to 538, Trump needs to SWEEP EVERY CD in IL/MO to just barely stay on track for the nomination. It looks likely he will only win 10/18 CDs in IL and may not even win MO.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/march-15-primaries-ohio-florida-results-presidential-election-2016/?#livepress-update-17473553

He still gets some delegates in 6 of those other 8 CDs as it currently stand. He's only shut out in IL-7 and IL-18. I have Trump with 53 of 69 IL delegates.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

It looks like Kasich's margin in Ohio will only continue to improve.  Most of the vote still out is in the population centers, including Columbus (aka Kasich's congressional stomping grounds) which he's winning by over 40% with only 12% of the precincts reporting.  

[The Free North]

Kasich now has two delegates leading in IL-10 along with 3 in IL-7 and 2 in IL-9. One in IL-6 is a possibility, too (out of third by 24 votes).

Cruz has a lead with 2 delegates in IL-13, 1 in IL-15, 1 in IL-16, 2 in IL-17 and all three in IL-18.

Love it muon.


According to 538, Trump needs to SWEEP EVERY CD in IL/MO to just barely stay on track for the nomination. It looks likely he will only win 10/18 CDs in IL and may not even win MO.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/march-15-primaries-ohio-florida-results-presidential-election-2016/?#livepress-update-17473553

He still gets some delegates in 6 of those other 8 CDs as it currently stand. He's only shut out in IL-7 and IL-18. I have Trump with 53 of 69 IL delegates.

Which is still shy of what he needs.

[Why]

There is still St Louis County and City to come, they might help Trump to a close win. Jackson could still end up as a Trump win as well, only 2 votes in it.

[Joe Biden 2020]

I would love nothing more than for Trump to be able to spend the next 6-7 months hammering Hillary Clinton on everything under the sun.  Lord knows she's got an entire fleet of big rigs of baggage that he can exploit.  No doubt she will spend the next 6-7 months hitting Trump.  I bet Trump doesn't even acknowledge Kasich and spends very little time to Cruz.

[The Free North]

For those wondering what happens to Rubio's delegates

This is from 538...yikes

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/march-15-primaries-ohio-florida-results-presidential-election-2016/?#livepress-update-17473553

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[Matty]

Why is there NEVER any talk in these results thread about trump pissing away delegates by massively underperforming some of these proportional primaries?

NC, for example. Polls had him up 20. He won by 4. That's like ten delegates gone.

[PeteB]

It looks like Kasich's margin in Ohio will only continue to improve.  Most of the vote still out is in the population centers, including Columbus (aka Kasich's congressional stomping grounds) which he's winning by over 40% with only 12% of the precincts reporting.  

Mark my words - this has to burn Trump. From tomorrow every moderate GOP resource is going to Kasich!

[Admiral Kizaru]

Cruz is closing nicely in MO.

Make no mistake, should Trump lose more than 1 CD in IL or lose MO, we are on the path to a brokered convention.

I'm not so sure.  Trump is going to WTA/WTM the heck out of the remaining NE states and probably AZ and CA as well, particularly if Kasich fades away.

This exactly.

I don't understand why Trump winning 60% of the remaining pledged delegates or whatever he needs is being regarded as impossible.

[Boston Bread]

Why is there NEVER any talk in these results thread about trump pissing away delegates by massively underperforming some of these proportional primaries?

NC, for example. Polls had him up 20. He won by 4. That's like ten delegates gone.

Trump's % was accurate. It's just that the GOP field consolidated around second place. If it was proportional and not WTA, it comes at no cost to Trump's number of delegates.

[muon2]

For those wondering what happens to Rubio's delegates

This is from 538...yikes

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/march-15-primaries-ohio-florida-results-presidential-election-2016/?#livepress-update-17473553

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I thought that's why he suspended his campaign but did not withdraw.

[Admiral Kizaru]

It looks like Kasich's margin in Ohio will only continue to improve.  Most of the vote still out is in the population centers, including Columbus (aka Kasich's congressional stomping grounds) which he's winning by over 40% with only 12% of the precincts reporting.  

Mark my words - this has to burn Trump. From tomorrow every moderate GOP resource is going to Kasich!

Worked so well for Rubio.

[The Free North]

Cruz is closing nicely in MO.

Make no mistake, should Trump lose more than 1 CD in IL or lose MO, we are on the path to a brokered convention.

I'm not so sure.  Trump is going to WTA/WTM the heck out of the remaining NE states and probably AZ and CA as well, particularly if Kasich fades away.

Trump will play very will in WV, PA, and NY.

However, he will struggle in MD/DE/NJ/CT/RI. Kasich is likely to do very well in those states and even if he doesnt win outright, the delegate split will really hurt Trump and the WTA states are fairly evenly distributed amongst Trump's strengths/weaknesses.

[Boston Bread]

NJ is one of his top 3 states, RI is up there too. Look at MA. Trump is not weak in the northeast.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Trump's best state is New Jersey, so plainly, you don't know what you're talking about. Morning Consult confirmed that.

[Matty]

NJ is one of his top 3 states, RI is up there too. Look at MA. Trump is not weak in the northeast.

Are those primaries open or closed?

[Matty]

Who was the last republican to lose both texas and ohio and win the nomination?

[win win]

Cruz is closing nicely in MO.

Make no mistake, should Trump lose more than 1 CD in IL or lose MO, we are on the path to a brokered convention.

I'm not so sure.  Trump is going to WTA/WTM the heck out of the remaining NE states and probably AZ and CA as well, particularly if Kasich fades away.

Trump will play very will in WV, PA, and NY.

However, he will struggle in MD/DE/NJ/CT/RI. Kasich is likely to do very well in those states and even if he doesnt win outright, the delegate split will really hurt Trump and the WTA states are fairly evenly distributed amongst Trump's strengths/weaknesses.

I guarantee you, Trump will not struggle in NJ.

[Ronnie]

Who was the last republican to lose both texas and ohio and win the nomination?

You could also ask, "Who was the last Republican to win Florida and lose the nomination?"

Basically, this cycle throws all conventional wisdom out the window.  Don't try to draw conclusions from the past.

[Vosem]

_trump is going to win NJ, winner-take-all. What I question is the widespread idea that _trump will do well in California. I think Pacific Coast Republicans should be fertile ground for Ted Cruz.

[The Free North]

NJ is one of his top 3 states, RI is up there too. Look at MA. Trump is not weak in the northeast.

Disagree. Trump does not play well in the subruban northeast. Sure there are some exburbs in NJ that he will clean up in, but he is not going to win the NYC suburbs, he is not going to win the Philadelphia suburbs, or the BWI suburbs. I think he will probably sweep in PA/WV/NY, but along the coast, I don't see it.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/31/upshot/donald-trumps-strongest-supporters-a-certain-kind-of-democrat.html


Look at the Mass suburbs, he lost them quite decisively, and imagine the Rubio + Kasich vote combined and larger.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Remember, with only 3 in the race, it will be easier for Trump to get the 50% threshold in the states that are WTA at that point.  It's like a poker game when one player goes bankrupt - the antes and pots go up.

[Matty]

Who was the last republican to lose both texas and ohio and win the nomination?

You could also ask, "Who was the last Republican to win Florida and lose the nomination?"

Basically, this cycle throws all conventional wisdom out the window.  Don't try to draw conclusions from the past.

Oh I wasn't drawing conclusions I am genuinely curious.

[Why]

Is Cruz going to be able to gain enough votes elsewhere if he even just narrowly loses St Louis City and County?
I know there are some counties left in the SW but are they really going to be enough along with the rest of Boone?

Or does he need to win in at least one of St Louis City or County? If so I don't like his chances.