Sanders by 1% in a Caucasian state. Not good for him.
Missouri has significant black areas.
Right, but Missouri's White population is actually higher than, say, Michigan's, with less blacks than Michigan as well. Given the region and those demographics, he should be doing better.
Missouri non-Hispanic Whites (2014 update): 80.1%
Missouri African Americans (2014 update): 11.8%
Michigan non-Hispanic Whites (2014 update): 75.8%
Michigan African Americans (2014 update): 14.2%
Sources:
http://www.census.gov/quickfacts/table/PST045215/29
http://www.census.gov/quickfacts/table/PST045215/26
But you have to adjust those numbers to reflect the
Democratic primary electorate.
White Share of the Vote for Obama, 2012:Missouri - 36%
Michigan - 44%In a two-way model (which should probably be adjusted to reflect likely voters instead of Census, but oh well)
Missouri: White 73%, Black 27%
Michigan: White 72%, Black 28%
Missouri - depending on who turns out and who doesn't, etc etc - will look almost identical to Michigan. So if Sanders does win by one point here given these numbers, then he has performed roughly the same as he did in Michigan. 
