MO PrimD: Public Policy Polling: Near Tie in Missouri

[Virginiá]

Sanders by 1% in a Caucasian state. Not good for him.

Missouri has significant black areas.

Right, but Missouri's White population is actually higher than, say, Michigan's, with less blacks than Michigan as well. Given the region and those demographics, he should be doing better.

Missouri non-Hispanic Whites (2014 update): 80.1%
Missouri African Americans (2014 update): 11.8%

Michigan non-Hispanic Whites (2014 update): 75.8%
Michigan African Americans (2014 update): 14.2%

Sources:
http://www.census.gov/quickfacts/table/PST045215/29
http://www.census.gov/quickfacts/table/PST045215/26

[Virginiá]

Every state counts. If Bernie wins Missouri, he keeps on moving forward.

You understand delegate math, right? Because a simple "win" is far from what he actually needs at this point.

[Virginiá]

But you have to adjust those numbers to reflect the Democratic primary electorate.

....

Missouri - depending on who turns out and who doesn't, etc etc - will look almost identical to Michigan. So if Sanders does win by one point here given these numbers, then he has performed roughly the same as he did in Michigan.

I actually had not considered that. Thanks for the info!