MO PrimD: Public Policy Polling: Near Tie in Missouri
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  MO PrimD: Public Policy Polling: Near Tie in Missouri
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Author Topic: MO PrimD: Public Policy Polling: Near Tie in Missouri  (Read 2567 times)
ElectionAtlas
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« on: March 14, 2016, 06:37:27 AM »

New Poll: Missouri President by Public Policy Polling on 2016-03-12

Summary:
Sanders:
47%
Clinton:
46%
Other:
0%
Undecided:
7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #1 on: March 14, 2016, 07:14:39 AM »

Beautiful poll!
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A Perez
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« Reply #2 on: March 14, 2016, 08:09:36 AM »

Sanders by 1% in a Caucasian state. Not good for him.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #3 on: March 14, 2016, 08:10:12 AM »

Sanders by 1% in a Caucasian state. Not good for him.

Missouri has significant black areas.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #4 on: March 14, 2016, 08:10:42 AM »

Sanders by 1% in a Caucasian state. Not good for him.

Trolololol
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Seriously?
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« Reply #5 on: March 14, 2016, 08:24:26 AM »

Is PPP just doing the Democrats for these states or are they planning on releasing Republican polls outside of NC?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #6 on: March 14, 2016, 08:25:35 AM »

Is PPP just doing the Democrats for these states or are they planning on releasing Republican polls outside of NC?

The polls were done for VoteVets Action Fund, so they probably just wanted the Democratic numbers.
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« Reply #7 on: March 14, 2016, 12:15:48 PM »

Sanders by 1% in a Caucasian state. Not good for him.

no, this is a Caucasian state:

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Xing
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« Reply #8 on: March 14, 2016, 12:52:19 PM »

I called MO a possible win for Sanders back in early Feb, and he seems to be in decent position to do so. If he wins tomorrow, I will accept my accolades.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #9 on: March 14, 2016, 05:01:40 PM »

Sanders by 1% in a Caucasian state. Not good for him.

Missouri has significant black areas.

Right, but Missouri's White population is actually higher than, say, Michigan's, with less blacks than Michigan as well. Given the region and those demographics, he should be doing better.

Missouri non-Hispanic Whites (2014 update): 80.1%
Missouri African Americans (2014 update): 11.8%

Michigan non-Hispanic Whites (2014 update): 75.8%
Michigan African Americans (2014 update): 14.2%

Sources:
http://www.census.gov/quickfacts/table/PST045215/29
http://www.census.gov/quickfacts/table/PST045215/26
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RightBehind
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« Reply #10 on: March 14, 2016, 05:26:42 PM »

Every state counts. If Bernie wins Missouri, he keeps on moving forward.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #11 on: March 14, 2016, 07:43:13 PM »

Every state counts. If Bernie wins Missouri, he keeps on moving forward.

You understand delegate math, right? Because a simple "win" is far from what he actually needs at this point.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #12 on: March 14, 2016, 08:04:38 PM »

Sanders by 1% in a Caucasian state. Not good for him.

Missouri has significant black areas.

Right, but Missouri's White population is actually higher than, say, Michigan's, with less blacks than Michigan as well. Given the region and those demographics, he should be doing better.

Missouri non-Hispanic Whites (2014 update): 80.1%
Missouri African Americans (2014 update): 11.8%

Michigan non-Hispanic Whites (2014 update): 75.8%
Michigan African Americans (2014 update): 14.2%

Sources:
http://www.census.gov/quickfacts/table/PST045215/29
http://www.census.gov/quickfacts/table/PST045215/26

But you have to adjust those numbers to reflect the Democratic primary electorate.

White Share of the Vote for Obama, 2012:

Missouri - 36%
Michigan - 44%


In a two-way model (which should probably be adjusted to reflect likely voters instead of Census, but oh well)Sad
Missouri: White 73%, Black 27%
Michigan: White 72%, Black 28%


Missouri - depending on who turns out and who doesn't, etc etc - will look almost identical to Michigan. So if Sanders does win by one point here given these numbers, then he has performed roughly the same as he did in Michigan.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #13 on: March 14, 2016, 10:54:10 PM »

But you have to adjust those numbers to reflect the Democratic primary electorate.

....

Missouri - depending on who turns out and who doesn't, etc etc - will look almost identical to Michigan. So if Sanders does win by one point here given these numbers, then he has performed roughly the same as he did in Michigan.

I actually had not considered that. Thanks for the info! Smiley
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #14 on: March 15, 2016, 12:30:03 PM »

Sanders by 1% in a Caucasian state. Not good for him.

Missouri has significant black areas.

Right, but Missouri's White population is actually higher than, say, Michigan's, with less blacks than Michigan as well. Given the region and those demographics, he should be doing better.

Missouri non-Hispanic Whites (2014 update): 80.1%
Missouri African Americans (2014 update): 11.8%

Michigan non-Hispanic Whites (2014 update): 75.8%
Michigan African Americans (2014 update): 14.2%

Sources:
http://www.census.gov/quickfacts/table/PST045215/29
http://www.census.gov/quickfacts/table/PST045215/26

You're saying he should be doing better as if Michigan wasn't this huge upset that it was. Missouri is also 1/3 southern and southern whites are (as we've seen) more pro-Clinton.
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #15 on: March 15, 2016, 01:06:58 PM »

Even the Hillary sabre-rattlers over at Putrid Pathetic Polling can't hold back the Show-Me state from FEELIN THE BERN!
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Maxwell
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« Reply #16 on: March 15, 2016, 01:14:52 PM »

Bernie tends to do better with Whites that don't vote for Obama. So I'm thinking a decent sized Bernie win is not surprising here.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #17 on: March 15, 2016, 11:04:08 PM »

Freedom poll
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IceSpear
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« Reply #18 on: March 15, 2016, 11:06:35 PM »
« Edited: March 16, 2016, 12:06:24 AM by IceSpear »

Even the Hillary sabre-rattlers over at Putrid Pathetic Polling can't hold back the Show-Me state from FEELIN THE BERN!

Yes, those Hillary hacks at PPP that nailed the exact margin!

edit: oops lol
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emailking
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« Reply #19 on: March 16, 2016, 08:32:22 AM »

Near tie sounds about right.
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