Monmouth: Ohio: kasich +5, Clinton +14

[Matty]

Kasich 40
Trump 35
Cruz 15
Rubio 5

Clinton 54
Sanders 40

http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/e2e94533-5376-4498-8e62-b21454f3e8ba.pdf

[Green Line]

Rubio clearly has the most intelligent voters.  Only they seem to understand the concept of strategic voting.  What a shame!

[Sorenroy]

The Democratic Race is 54-40 BTW.

Also:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That is 23% of Sanders supporters and 12% of Clinton supporters said that they had "given serious thought" to voting in the Republican Primary.

[RI]

New Poll: Ohio President by Monmouth University on 2016-03-13

Summary:

Kasich:	40%
Trump:	35%
Cruz:	15%
Other:	6%
Undecided:	4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Landslide Lyndon]

It will be a big surprise if Kasich loses tomorrow.
Maybe if Rubio was more focused on doing his job instead of being an establishment hack he'd be in the same position at his home state.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

That's right, Ohio! DUMP THE TRUMP!!!

[bilaps]

This poll has Clinton leading among men 53 to 44. No way.

[PeteB]

This is now the 5th consecutive OH poll, since March 8th, where Kasich is either ahead (3 times) or tied (2 times) with Trump. It's pretty much over for Trump in OH. And it's not for lack of trying - Trump even pulled out Christie and his surrogates from FL and into OH to try and salvage this. Good try Donald, but no cigar!

Kasich should now try and capitalize on this and eke out the best possible result in IL as well (although an outright win may be problematic, with Cruz also doing well)!

[RI]

So the late polling consensus is basically that the Chicago violence didn't matter either way?

It seemed to help Trump slightly in Florida.

[PeteB]

So the late polling consensus is basically that the Chicago violence didn't matter either way?

It seemed to help Trump slightly in Florida.

It's still too early for most people to process this. You will see some effects tomorrow, but the real effects will be felt in the next 2 weeks. And they will NOT be pro-Trump.

[RI]

So the late polling consensus is basically that the Chicago violence didn't matter either way?

It seemed to help Trump slightly in Florida.

It's still too early for most people to process this. You will see some effects tomorrow, but the real effects will be felt in the next 2 weeks. And they will NOT be pro-Trump.

I didn't just pull that out of my butt. Look:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[PeteB]

So the late polling consensus is basically that the Chicago violence didn't matter either way?

It seemed to help Trump slightly in Florida.

It's still too early for most people to process this. You will see some effects tomorrow, but the real effects will be felt in the next 2 weeks. And they will NOT be pro-Trump.

I didn't just pull that out of my butt. Look:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I never said that you did - I saw that poll comment as well!

It's normal human psychology. If you are a (potential) Trump supporter, the first reaction is disbelief and denial. However, as the violence and rhetoric get uglier, and you start picturing your own family and community getting involved in that, other feelings will prevail, and more and more people will cool off. The important thing is to have a real alternative candidate when that happens.

[ag]

Rubio clearly has the most intelligent voters.  Only they seem to understand the concept of strategic voting.  What a shame!

Well, Rubio explicitly told them.

[IceSpear]

I don't really trust these polls. That said, if they are correct and Hillary ends up doing substantially better in Ohio than in IL/MO, does anyone have any theories on the cause?

[Landslide Lyndon]

I don't really trust these polls. That said, if they are correct and Hillary ends up doing substantially better in Ohio than in IL/MO, does anyone have any theories on the cause?

Appalachian whites don't feel the Bern like the other Midwest working-class whites?

[Xing]

I don't really trust these polls. That said, if they are correct and Hillary ends up doing substantially better in Ohio than in IL/MO, does anyone have any theories on the cause?

It could be that Sanders won't do quite as well with Appalachian whites as some of us are expecting. It could also be that Sanders just put up a stronger effort in IL. I won't be surprised at all if Sanders does the best in MO, since it's the whitest state, and he's generally done quite well in the "Plains" part of the Midwest. I'm just guessing here, but the polls could be wrong, and Sanders could still do better in OH than IL.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

This poll nailed it. Great work Monmouth!!

[Matty]

This poll nailed it. Great work Monmouth!!

not on the R side.

[Maxwell]

This poll nailed it. Great work Monmouth!!

not on the R side.

Undecideds sailed to Kasich, while Trump basically matched his numbers - that seems to be the usual.