FL/IL/OH-CBS/YouGov: D: Clinton in FL/OH, Sanders in IL; R: Kasich/Trump tie in OH, Trump up in FL (user search)
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  FL/IL/OH-CBS/YouGov: D: Clinton in FL/OH, Sanders in IL; R: Kasich/Trump tie in OH, Trump up in FL (search mode)
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Author Topic: FL/IL/OH-CBS/YouGov: D: Clinton in FL/OH, Sanders in IL; R: Kasich/Trump tie in OH, Trump up in FL  (Read 5172 times)
SingingAnalyst
mathstatman
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Posts: 3,639
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« on: March 13, 2016, 08:46:35 AM »

Second choice candidates for the Republicans (note the same two names fill the top two slots in all three states):

Florida:
Cruz 29%
Kasich 21%
Rubio 19%
Trump 13%

Illinois:
Kasich 24%
Cruz 21%
Rubio 19%
Trump 16%

Ohio:
Cruz 24%
Kasich 21%
Trump 19%
Rubio 17%

How relevant are second choices withoout IRV? I'm sure Al Gore was the 2nd choice of a lot of Nader voters in FL in 2000.
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SingingAnalyst
mathstatman
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Posts: 3,639
United States


« Reply #1 on: March 13, 2016, 10:52:29 AM »

What the hell is going on here!? One day Clinton is up by 42 in IL, next day Sanders is up by 2!? Rubio's either down by single digits in FL, or 20+ and behind Cruz. IL/NC are Safe Trump in one poll, then another shows Cruz barely behind... Pollsters have been absolutely awful in this cycle. I wouldn't be surprised if 2016 polls end up having the overall largest polling error in recent history.
Polls should report the number of people polled, so that people can do the math and calculate a weighted average. If one poll of 800 shows Sanders and Clinton tied 48-48, and a poll of 1200 shows Clinton up 58-38, you calculate a weighted average and get 54-42.
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