FL/IL/OH-CBS/YouGov: D: Clinton in FL/OH, Sanders in IL; R: Kasich/Trump tie in OH, Trump up in FL

[Shadows]

Ohio is bad for Sanders, Illinois is okay.

Here is the deal -

Il - 18-29 Vote - 15%
OH - 16%
FL - 9%

These numbers are too low, IOWA,NH,MI were all 18-20/21% odd.

Florida obviously has a very aging population but 9% ?

I guess this is why Bernie out-performs polls.

Ohio - Hillary is beating Bernie is the white vote by a good margin, which is why Hillary is winning!

[Shadows]

Sanders has been in the news a lot in Chicago, maybe the Trump protest helps him with black voters also going hard against Rahm. I think winning IL would be a bigger deal than winning OH or FL.

In terms of delegate math though, Sanders probably needs IL, MO, AND OH, assuming FL/NC are blowouts.

You won't get South Level blow-outs anymore, He is hitting 35% in NC/FL & is campaigning there as well - But I guess 35% is a bad result here, 40-42% is a more respectable

[Shadows]

With the final push which is coming for the online groups, it is even beyond Michigan & much organized & much stronger.

I think we can beat the numbers of some of these states - But 9% in Ohio looks too steep.

It will be HRC's biggest coup & likewise Illinois is a big loss (Obama's home state & one of Hillary's many home states)

[Shadows]

Acc. to Cross-tabs - 58% in Illinois, 26% in Blacks, 16% in Hispanics.

Michigan had 14.2% Black as does Illinois overall. Michigan had 19-20% final Black vote.

In this poll Black Vote is 26% & much higher than (say) Michigan.

So the likelihood of under-estimating the Black Voting is very limited IMO.

[Shadows]

I love how Sanders will actually end up winning a majority of the March 15 states.

But it is inconvenient how Hillary won Iowa, as all of the states surrounding it could very well go for Sanders. What an unfortunate map.

Interesting interpretation, considering that out of all recent polling of the March 15th states, there's only one poll that shows him ahead (this IL poll).

Not saying its impossible by any means, but it seems like its far from a statistical certainty.

I agree, he could end up with 0 wins & could end up with 3 wins at best while Clinton has 2 guaranteed

[Shadows]

Spring break is gonna hurt Bernie bad, I got a feeling if it was not spring-break Ohio would be lean Sanders @ this point. I meant OSU & most of the big Uni's are on break. This does not help!

[Shadows]

Bernie is likely going to win here in Illinois, but I get the feeling that this poll is oversampling downstate, considering the over-performance on behalf of Sanders and Cruz.

Out in the western burbs of Chicago, Bernie signs are everywhere and there's nothing for Hillary. There's not really much of any Pub Pres candidates either and this is usually 60-40 Pub territory. It seems like every Dem house I know has a Bernie sign.

Bernie supporters have always had more passion & enthusiasm, so I wouldn't go with this. Hillary is still a big favorite in Illinois - It's Illinois come on - It will be a big shocker if Bernie wins IMO.

The things you say about signs is common in almost all states, even states Bernie lost small!

[Shadows]

It does add to  the narrative - Iowa 0.2% Win, Mass 1.4%, Nevada 5% & losses everywhere else. She barely got a 7-8 delegate lead from these 3 states combined

Mass was a lock for Sanders if it was held on any other day than Super Tuesday - 11 states & honestly even the Sanders group focused on pulling upsets in Colorado & Oklahoma. No1 really imagined we could lose Mass. It's funny that everywhere around Iowa, Sanders won. Wonder what would Iowa be like, if it voted today.

All of Hillary's big victories & delegate lead has come from South, most of which are solid red states.

Outside of the South -

Minn - 25% Loss
Vermont - 75% Loss
NH - 22% Loss
Maine - 30% Loss
Kansas - 35% Loss
Nebraska - 10% Loss
Colorado - 22% Loss
Michigan - 1/2% Loss
Iowa - 0.2% Win
Mass - 1.4% Win
Nevada - 5.5% Win

And this thing will get worse with many more losses, when she heads to New York, she will heading with 13-15 losses outside South, as a regional candidate. The delegate math by solidly in favor of her though

I think Clinton will all 4 states & Sanders MO. I doubt if Sanders can pull Illinois & Ohio, both wins - We are being way too optimistic here IMO