FL/IL/OH-CBS/YouGov: D: Clinton in FL/OH, Sanders in IL; R: Kasich/Trump tie in OH, Trump up in FL (user search)
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  FL/IL/OH-CBS/YouGov: D: Clinton in FL/OH, Sanders in IL; R: Kasich/Trump tie in OH, Trump up in FL (search mode)
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Author Topic: FL/IL/OH-CBS/YouGov: D: Clinton in FL/OH, Sanders in IL; R: Kasich/Trump tie in OH, Trump up in FL  (Read 5134 times)
Mr. Morden
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Posts: 44,073
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« on: March 13, 2016, 08:24:59 AM »
« edited: March 13, 2016, 08:30:14 AM by Mr. Morden »

CBS/YouGov polls of FL, IL, and OH, conducted March 9-11:

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/election-2016-trump-and-kasich-neck-and-neck-ohio-trump-leads-florida/












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Mr. Morden
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Posts: 44,073
United States


« Reply #1 on: March 13, 2016, 08:36:55 AM »

Second choice candidates for the Republicans (note the same two names fill the top two slots in all three states):

Florida:
Cruz 29%
Kasich 21%
Rubio 19%
Trump 13%

Illinois:
Kasich 24%
Cruz 21%
Rubio 19%
Trump 16%

Ohio:
Cruz 24%
Kasich 21%
Trump 19%
Rubio 17%
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Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
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Posts: 44,073
United States


« Reply #2 on: March 13, 2016, 08:50:34 AM »

Second choice candidates for the Republicans (note the same two names fill the top two slots in all three states):

Florida:
Cruz 29%
Kasich 21%
Rubio 19%
Trump 13%

Illinois:
Kasich 24%
Cruz 21%
Rubio 19%
Trump 16%

Ohio:
Cruz 24%
Kasich 21%
Trump 19%
Rubio 17%

How relevant are second choices withoout IRV? I'm sure Al Gore was the 2nd choice of a lot of Nader voters in FL in 2000.

It's relevant in terms of voters potentially changing their minds at the last minute.  Late deciders are more likely to go to candidates who they'd been thinking of as their second choices.

It's also of course relevant in the context of looking ahead to post-March 15, if any of the candidates drop out (Rubio of course being the most likely).  If these three states are at all representative of states later in the calendar, then this is yet another data point suggesting that despite Trump being in the lead nationally, he won't have such an easy time picking off supporters from the candidates who drop out, should it narrow down to a 3-man or 2-man race.
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