FL/IL/OH-CBS/YouGov: D: Clinton in FL/OH, Sanders in IL; R: Kasich/Trump tie in OH, Trump up in FL

[Landslide Lyndon]

1)How is she a regional candidate when she has won in Massachusetts, Iowa and Nevada?

2)That's the same kind of BS the Clinton campaign was saying about Obama in 2008 about how he can't win the big states (New York, California, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania). This is just campaign talk to rationalize the fact that you're still running despite the fact that there is no plausible path to the nomination.

I do see a lot of shades of Hillary 08 in Sanders 16. I'm just glad I'm on the winning side this time.

I'm just waiting for the Sanders campaign to start saying "why can't she close the deal?".

[Gass3268]

Bernie is likely going to win here in Illinois, but I get the feeling that this poll is oversampling downstate, considering the over-performance on behalf of Sanders and Cruz.

Out in the western burbs of Chicago, Bernie signs are everywhere and there's nothing for Hillary. There's not really much of any Pub Pres candidates either and this is usually 60-40 Pub territory. It seems like every Dem house I know has a Bernie sign.

Will be interesting to see if Bernie takes any of the collar counties. In Michigan we saw Hillary win Wayne and Oakland, yet he still won the state. Eager to see how Lake and DuPage vote.

I imagine that Will County will be his best of the 5 collar counties. While Bernie didn't win Macomb, Oakland, or Wayne, he was able to keep the margins down in Wayne while essentially tying in the suburban counties. This allowed him to match the vote there with the rest of the state. The strategy needs to be the same here. Keep the margin reasonable in Cook, get a net tie in the collar counties, and then dominate the rest of the state.

[Shadows]

It does add to  the narrative - Iowa 0.2% Win, Mass 1.4%, Nevada 5% & losses everywhere else. She barely got a 7-8 delegate lead from these 3 states combined

Mass was a lock for Sanders if it was held on any other day than Super Tuesday - 11 states & honestly even the Sanders group focused on pulling upsets in Colorado & Oklahoma. No1 really imagined we could lose Mass. It's funny that everywhere around Iowa, Sanders won. Wonder what would Iowa be like, if it voted today.

All of Hillary's big victories & delegate lead has come from South, most of which are solid red states.

Outside of the South -

Minn - 25% Loss
Vermont - 75% Loss
NH - 22% Loss
Maine - 30% Loss
Kansas - 35% Loss
Nebraska - 10% Loss
Colorado - 22% Loss
Michigan - 1/2% Loss
Iowa - 0.2% Win
Mass - 1.4% Win
Nevada - 5.5% Win

And this thing will get worse with many more losses, when she heads to New York, she will heading with 13-15 losses outside South, as a regional candidate. The delegate math by solidly in favor of her though

I think Clinton will all 4 states & Sanders MO. I doubt if Sanders can pull Illinois & Ohio, both wins - We are being way too optimistic here IMO

[DrScholl]

The thing about the suburban counties around Detroit is that they have a lower median income than the collar counties around Chicago. DuPage and Lake are full of wealthier establishment Democrats who are more likely to vote for Clinton.

[Gass3268]

The thing about the suburban counties around Detroit is that they have a lower median income than the collar counties around Chicago. DuPage and Lake are full of wealthier establishment Democrats who are more likely to vote for Clinton.

I know that anecdotal evidence should always be taken with a grain of salt, but if anyone knows the collar counties, it's muon:

Out in the western burbs of Chicago, Bernie signs are everywhere and there's nothing for Hillary. There's not really much of any Pub Pres candidates either and this is usually 60-40 Pub territory. It seems like every Dem house I know has a Bernie sign.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I assume that Sanders will dominate the rural counties along the Wisconsin and Iowa border.
But how about the southern part of the state? The whites there are more like their counterparts in the South than those in Upper Midwest.

[Gass3268]

I assume that Sanders will dominate the rural counties along the Wisconsin and Iowa border.
But how about the southern part of the state? The whites there are more like their counterparts in the South than those in Upper Midwest.

That's a good question.

[RFayette]

It would be so satisfying to see Marco Amnesty Rubio to get 3rd in his home state.  What a loser!

[Mehmentum]

Can someone explain to me how yougov has trump barely beating cruz in illinois, yet tied with kasich in ohio, while other polls have kasich up in ohio, and trump up by around 10 in illinois?

There's also been several polls with Kasich down in Ohio, so this is par for the course for a more or less tossup race.  The only surprise is that Cruz is doing so well in Illinois.  It could be that Cruz is having a last minute surge, it could also be a bad poll.

[DrScholl]

The thing about the suburban counties around Detroit is that they have a lower median income than the collar counties around Chicago. DuPage and Lake are full of wealthier establishment Democrats who are more likely to vote for Clinton.

I know that anecdotal evidence should always be taken with a grain of salt, but if anyone knows the collar counties, it's muon:

Out in the western burbs of Chicago, Bernie signs are everywhere and there's nothing for Hillary. There's not really much of any Pub Pres candidates either and this is usually 60-40 Pub territory. It seems like every Dem house I know has a Bernie sign.

Signs do not vote and the "so and so has more signs out" theory has been debunked years ago. It's the same thing as with crowd size and people assuming big crowds means a big win.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Now I'm strongly debating whether or not to tactically vote for Rubio or Cruz Tuesday, JFC

[Bigby]

Now I'm strongly debating whether or not to tactically vote for Rubio or Cruz Tuesday, JFC

How about you vote like a real person and not a Mitt-programmed robot?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Now I'm strongly debating whether or not to tactically vote for Rubio or Cruz Tuesday, JFC

How about you vote like a real person and not a Mitt-programmed robot?

You must know by now I will do what ever it takes to prevent Trump from ever being President. My goal is to stop Trump at all cost

[Mehmentum]

Now I'm strongly debating whether or not to tactically vote for Rubio or Cruz Tuesday, JFC

How about you vote like a real person and not a Mitt-programmed robot?

You must know by now I will do what ever it takes to prevent Trump from ever being President. My goal is to stop Trump at all cost

I would say vote for Cruz.  I don't think either has any shot in Florida, but Rubio needs to drop out as soon as possible so that Cruz and Kasich can consolidate as much of the vote as possible.  A third place finish in Florida would guarantee that.

[Classic Conservative]

Now I'm strongly debating whether or not to tactically vote for Rubio or Cruz Tuesday, JFC

If you want to stop Trump at all costs, think about who has the best chance of winning in every other state and who will drop out if he doesn't win on Tuesday.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

A slight disagreement with that Chicago Tribune poll that had Hillary up 42 points in IL.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

A slight disagreement with that Chicago Tribune poll that had Hillary up 42 points in IL.

Yeah, Sanders does seem to be quickly narrowing the gap in IL, but I still think Clinton will win it comfortably.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

according to the Atlas poll database, six people were polled for this and it has a MoE of 600%

[Wells]

according to the Atlas poll database, six people were polled for this and it has a MoE of 600%

Haha.
But how many people were actually polled?