FL/IL/OH-CBS/YouGov: D: Clinton in FL/OH, Sanders in IL; R: Kasich/Trump tie in OH, Trump up in FL

[Mehmentum]

Acc. to Cross-tabs - 58% in Illinois, 26% in Blacks, 16% in Hispanics.

Michigan had 14.2% Black as does Illinois overall. Michigan had 19-20% final Black vote.

In this poll Black Vote is 26% & much higher than (say) Michigan.

So the likelihood of under-estimating the Black Voting is very limited IMO.

Ah my bad, was looking at the wrong section.

[Xing]

What the hell is going on here!? One day Clinton is up by 42 in IL, next day Sanders is up by 2!? Rubio's either down by single digits in FL, or 20+ and behind Cruz. IL/NC are Safe Trump in one poll, then another shows Cruz barely behind... Pollsters have been absolutely awful in this cycle. I wouldn't be surprised if 2016 polls end up having the overall largest polling error in recent history.

[/]

I love how Sanders will actually end up winning a majority of the March 15 states.

But it is inconvenient how Hillary won Iowa, as all of the states surrounding it could very well go for Sanders. What an unfortunate map.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Com'on Florida, DUMP THE TRUMP!!!! YOU CAN DO IT!!!

Surprised with IL! GO CRUZ GO!!!!!!

[/]

You know guys, the point of polling is to give you information rather than to allow you to confirm your preconceived biases when the polls agree with them and throw the polls out when they don't.

Atlas's mindset rn is basically just "this poll is right because it lines up with what I already thought" or "this poll is wrong because it's different than what I already thought."

[SingingAnalyst]

What the hell is going on here!? One day Clinton is up by 42 in IL, next day Sanders is up by 2!? Rubio's either down by single digits in FL, or 20+ and behind Cruz. IL/NC are Safe Trump in one poll, then another shows Cruz barely behind... Pollsters have been absolutely awful in this cycle. I wouldn't be surprised if 2016 polls end up having the overall largest polling error in recent history.

Polls should report the number of people polled, so that people can do the math and calculate a weighted average. If one poll of 800 shows Sanders and Clinton tied 48-48, and a poll of 1200 shows Clinton up 58-38, you calculate a weighted average and get 54-42.

[Mehmentum]

I love how Sanders will actually end up winning a majority of the March 15 states.

But it is inconvenient how Hillary won Iowa, as all of the states surrounding it could very well go for Sanders. What an unfortunate map.

Interesting interpretation, considering that out of all recent polling of the March 15th states, there's only one poll that shows him ahead (this IL poll).

Not saying its impossible by any means, but it seems like its far from a statistical certainty.

[pppolitics]

No Missouri?

[Shadows]

I love how Sanders will actually end up winning a majority of the March 15 states.

But it is inconvenient how Hillary won Iowa, as all of the states surrounding it could very well go for Sanders. What an unfortunate map.

Interesting interpretation, considering that out of all recent polling of the March 15th states, there's only one poll that shows him ahead (this IL poll).

Not saying its impossible by any means, but it seems like its far from a statistical certainty.

I agree, he could end up with 0 wins & could end up with 3 wins at best while Clinton has 2 guaranteed

[KingSweden]

Hmm, I'm skeptical that Sanders is doing better in Illinois than Ohio, but bad news for Clinton if this is accurate

[Mr. Illini]

Bernie is likely going to win here in Illinois, but I get the feeling that this poll is oversampling downstate, considering the over-performance on behalf of Sanders and Cruz.

[Shadows]

Spring break is gonna hurt Bernie bad, I got a feeling if it was not spring-break Ohio would be lean Sanders @ this point. I meant OSU & most of the big Uni's are on break. This does not help!

[muon2]

Bernie is likely going to win here in Illinois, but I get the feeling that this poll is oversampling downstate, considering the over-performance on behalf of Sanders and Cruz.

Out in the western burbs of Chicago, Bernie signs are everywhere and there's nothing for Hillary. There's not really much of any Pub Pres candidates either and this is usually 60-40 Pub territory. It seems like every Dem house I know has a Bernie sign.

[Mehmentum]

I dunno, I wouldn't be too bothered by a 2 point loss in IL if Clinton got a 9 point win in OH and a 28 point win in FL. 

It depends on how NC and MO work out, but there would be a good chance that Clinton gains over 100 delegates from the 15th with those results.

[Lief 🗽]

Clinton needs to win at least 1 of IL, MO or OH for appearances sake. Otherwise she starts to look like a regional candidate, especially with the rest of March in Bernie's favor.

[IceSpear]

Clinton needs to win at least 1 of IL, MO or OH for appearances sake. Otherwise she starts to look like a regional candidate, especially with the rest of March in Bernie's favor.

She doesn't actually need to. If she loses those 3 narrowly but wins NC/FL in blowouts, she'll net enough delegates to be unstoppable, "regional candidate" or not.

[Lief 🗽]

You don't become "unstoppable" on the same day your opponent sweeps the Midwest.

[psychprofessor]

Clinton needs to win at least 1 of IL, MO or OH for appearances sake. Otherwise she starts to look like a regional candidate, especially with the rest of March in Bernie's favor.

She doesn't actually need to. If she loses those 3 narrowly but wins NC/FL in blowouts, she'll net enough delegates to be unstoppable, "regional candidate" or not.

The regional candidate who leads actual primary voting 60/38 and has approximately 1.8 million more votes. This is what I've concluded: Sanders supporters will play mental gymnastics to find any way to minimize Hillary's wins and maximize Bernie's. A one point win in Michigan - the race is turned on its head. A 30 point blow out for Hillary in Florida - well, she only appeals to minorities and old folks. But, at the end of the day, the only thing that matters is delegates and she will earn more than Bernie on Tuesday, likely by more than 100. Then he can win the caucus states coming up but she locks and loads again for NY on the 19th and then PA and MD on the 26th.

[Shadows]

Bernie is likely going to win here in Illinois, but I get the feeling that this poll is oversampling downstate, considering the over-performance on behalf of Sanders and Cruz.

Out in the western burbs of Chicago, Bernie signs are everywhere and there's nothing for Hillary. There's not really much of any Pub Pres candidates either and this is usually 60-40 Pub territory. It seems like every Dem house I know has a Bernie sign.

Bernie supporters have always had more passion & enthusiasm, so I wouldn't go with this. Hillary is still a big favorite in Illinois - It's Illinois come on - It will be a big shocker if Bernie wins IMO.

The things you say about signs is common in almost all states, even states Bernie lost small!

[Blair]

Winning IL would be a bigger deal for Sanders than OH much more diverse and one of Hillary's home states.

[Landslide Lyndon]

1)How is she a regional candidate when she has won in Massachusetts, Iowa and Nevada?

2)That's the same kind of BS the Clinton campaign was saying about Obama in 2008 about how he can't win the big states (New York, California, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania). This is just campaign talk to rationalize the fact that you're still running despite the fact that there is no plausible path to the nomination.

[IceSpear]

You don't become "unstoppable" on the same day your opponent sweeps the Midwest.

You're talking about optics. Obviously they would be good for Bernie and bad for Hillary if that happened. I'm talking about math.

If Bernie wins IL/MO/OH by the same margin he won Michigan while Hillary wins FL/NC by 20 points, she nets ~50-60 delegates. Add to her current 220 delegate lead, and that's all she wrote. He needs to perform respectably in at least one of FL/NC.

He could win every other region of the country and still lose the nomination because that's how proportional allocation works. Narrow wins throughout the Midwest don't do him much good when he's already trailing by so much. Just ask Hillary Clinton...in 2008.

[Matty]

Can someone explain to me how yougov has trump barely beating cruz in illinois, yet tied with kasich in ohio, while other polls have kasich up in ohio, and trump up by around 10 in illinois?

[Mr. Illini]

Bernie is likely going to win here in Illinois, but I get the feeling that this poll is oversampling downstate, considering the over-performance on behalf of Sanders and Cruz.

Out in the western burbs of Chicago, Bernie signs are everywhere and there's nothing for Hillary. There's not really much of any Pub Pres candidates either and this is usually 60-40 Pub territory. It seems like every Dem house I know has a Bernie sign.

Will be interesting to see if Bernie takes any of the collar counties. In Michigan we saw Hillary win Wayne and Oakland, yet he still won the state. Eager to see how Lake and DuPage vote.

[IceSpear]

1)How is she a regional candidate when she has won in Massachusetts, Iowa and Nevada?

2)That's the same kind of BS the Clinton campaign was saying about Obama in 2008 about how he can't win the big states (New York, California, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania). This is just campaign talk to rationalize the fact that you're still running despite the fact that there is no plausible path to the nomination.

I do see a lot of shades of Hillary 08 in Sanders 16. I'm just glad I'm on the winning side this time.