FL/IL/OH-NBC/WSJ/Marist: D: Clinton leads; R: Kasich up in OH, Trump up in FL/IL (user search)
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  FL/IL/OH-NBC/WSJ/Marist: D: Clinton leads; R: Kasich up in OH, Trump up in FL/IL (search mode)
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Author Topic: FL/IL/OH-NBC/WSJ/Marist: D: Clinton leads; R: Kasich up in OH, Trump up in FL/IL  (Read 4240 times)
Negusa Nagast 🚀
Nagas
Sr. Member
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Posts: 2,826
United States


« on: March 13, 2016, 02:43:12 PM »

I don't see how Sanders wins Illinois unless he carries Cook County by double digits and the black vote pretty much makes that impossible. The collar counties are too wealthy to have a reason to vote for him. If he only barely won in Michigan, it's hard to see him carry Illinois.

Well, if this year is anything like 2008 demographics wise, there should be about 19% non-black/non-white voters (Latino+Other). If Sanders gets the same percentages of Blacks and Whites in Illinois that he got in Michigan (56% and 28%), he'll need about 56% of the (Latino+Other) vote as well to win.
Nevada entrance polls had him at 53% with Hispanics, but he only got 29% in Texas exit polling.

He got blown out of the water in Hispanic precincts in Clark County. That Nevada exit poll looked more like a fluke than anything else.
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