FL/IL/OH-NBC/WSJ/Marist: D: Clinton leads; R: Kasich up in OH, Trump up in FL/IL

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

I don't see how Sanders wins Illinois unless he carries Cook County by double digits and the black vote pretty much makes that impossible. The collar counties are too wealthy to have a reason to vote for him. If he only barely won in Michigan, it's hard to see him carry Illinois.

Well, if this year is anything like 2008 demographics wise, there should be about 19% non-black/non-white voters (Latino+Other). If Sanders gets the same percentages of Blacks and Whites in Illinois that he got in Michigan (56% and 28%), he'll need about 56% of the (Latino+Other) vote as well to win.

Nevada entrance polls had him at 53% with Hispanics, but he only got 29% in Texas exit polling.

He got blown out of the water in Hispanic precincts in Clark County. That Nevada exit poll looked more like a fluke than anything else.

[RBH]

What is it about the lack of polling in Missouri?

at the risk of besmirching Missouri.. it awards 71 delegates. FL/IL/OH award twice as many (FL 214/IL 156/OH 143). So the winner in FL or IL or OH gets more delegates in a 50/50 election than if one candidate carried Missouri 71-0.

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: Florida President by Marist College on 2016-03-10

Summary:

Clinton:	61%
Sanders:	34%
Other:	2%
Undecided:	3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: Ohio President by Marist College on 2016-03-10

Summary:

Clinton:	58%
Sanders:	38%
Other:	0%
Undecided:	4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Mr. Morden]

Crosstabs here:

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/313-trump-ahead-in-fl-il-kasich-up-in-oh-clinton-ahead-in-fl-il-and-oh/

Support by region:

Florida:
North/Panhandle: Trump +12 over Cruz
Orlando/Central Atlantic Coast: Trump +14 over Cruz
Tampa Bay area: Trump +17 over Cruz
Gulf Coast/mid-Florida: Trump +33 over Cruz
Miami/Gold Coast/Keys: Trump +11 over Rubio

Illinois:
Cook County: Trump +8 over Kasich
Collar Counties: Trump +5 over Cruz
North: Trump +12 over Cruz
Central and South: Trump +10 over Cruz

2nd choices among GOP primary voters:

Florida:
Cruz 28%
Rubio 25%
Kasich 21%
Trump 14%

Illinois:
Cruz 26%
Kasich 24%
Rubio 24%
Trump 13%

Ohio:
Kasich 26%
Rubio 26%
Cruz 23%
Trump 13%

Since Rubio is the most likely candidate to leave the race soon, looking at his voters’ second choices is interesting.  Again, no guarantee that this’ll be matched in the states that vote after he drops out, but it’s just for fun anyway.

In Florida, 2nd choice of Rubio voters:
Cruz 47%
Kasich 30%
Trump 16%

Unfortunately, that’s the only one of the three states where he has enough support to break down the second choices for his voters.

[Mr. Morden]

Also of note…

2nd choices of Kasich supporters in Illinois:
Rubio 38%
Cruz 28%
Trump 20%

2nd choices of Kasich supporters in Ohio:
Rubio 40%
Cruz 24%
Trump 20%

[Wiz in Wis]

I don't see how Sanders wins Illinois unless he carries Cook County by double digits and the black vote pretty much makes that impossible. The collar counties are too wealthy to have a reason to vote for him. If he only barely won in Michigan, it's hard to see him carry Illinois.

Well, if this year is anything like 2008 demographics wise, there should be about 19% non-black/non-white voters (Latino+Other). If Sanders gets the same percentages of Blacks and Whites in Illinois that he got in Michigan (56% and 28%), he'll need about 56% of the (Latino+Other) vote as well to win.

Hasn't the white % of the electorate been down most places?

[Gass3268]

Crosstabs here:

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/313-trump-ahead-in-fl-il-kasich-up-in-oh-clinton-ahead-in-fl-il-and-oh/

Support by region:

Florida:
North/Panhandle: Trump +12 over Cruz
Orlando/Central Atlantic Coast: Trump +14 over Cruz
Tampa Bay area: Trump +17 over Cruz
Gulf Coast/mid-Florida: Trump +33 over Cruz
Miami/Gold Coast/Keys: Trump +11 over Rubio

I'm going to lol so hard if Rubio loses Miami-Dade.

[Lief 🗽]

Crosstabs here:

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/313-trump-ahead-in-fl-il-kasich-up-in-oh-clinton-ahead-in-fl-il-and-oh/

Support by region:

Florida:
North/Panhandle: Trump +12 over Cruz
Orlando/Central Atlantic Coast: Trump +14 over Cruz
Tampa Bay area: Trump +17 over Cruz
Gulf Coast/mid-Florida: Trump +33 over Cruz
Miami/Gold Coast/Keys: Trump +11 over Rubio

I'm going to lol so hard if Rubio loses Miami-Dade.

I think Rubio will win Miami-Dade, but the counties around Miami-Dade will go to Trump, so he'll win the "Miami/Gold Coast/Keys" region overall.

[Gass3268]

Crosstabs here:

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/313-trump-ahead-in-fl-il-kasich-up-in-oh-clinton-ahead-in-fl-il-and-oh/

Support by region:

Florida:
North/Panhandle: Trump +12 over Cruz
Orlando/Central Atlantic Coast: Trump +14 over Cruz
Tampa Bay area: Trump +17 over Cruz
Gulf Coast/mid-Florida: Trump +33 over Cruz
Miami/Gold Coast/Keys: Trump +11 over Rubio

I'm going to lol so hard if Rubio loses Miami-Dade.

I think Rubio will win Miami-Dade, but the counties around Miami-Dade will go to Trump, so he'll win the "Miami/Gold Coast/Keys" region overall.

Agreed, but I'm still hoping.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I don't see how Sanders wins Illinois unless he carries Cook County by double digits and the black vote pretty much makes that impossible. The collar counties are too wealthy to have a reason to vote for him. If he only barely won in Michigan, it's hard to see him carry Illinois.

Well, if this year is anything like 2008 demographics wise, there should be about 19% non-black/non-white voters (Latino+Other). If Sanders gets the same percentages of Blacks and Whites in Illinois that he got in Michigan (56% and 28%), he'll need about 56% of the (Latino+Other) vote as well to win.

Hasn't the white % of the electorate been down most places?

Yes, everywhere except Virginia.

[MK]

Crosstabs here:

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/313-trump-ahead-in-fl-il-kasich-up-in-oh-clinton-ahead-in-fl-il-and-oh/

Support by region:

Florida:
North/Panhandle: Trump +12 over Cruz
Orlando/Central Atlantic Coast: Trump +14 over Cruz
Tampa Bay area: Trump +17 over Cruz
Gulf Coast/mid-Florida: Trump +33 over Cruz
Miami/Gold Coast/Keys: Trump +11 over Rubio

I'm going to lol so hard if Rubio loses Miami-Dade.

Gosh its almost if the people in FL want to do a recall election for his seat.  Is it possble to say that they regret losing Crist?