Republican Virgin Islands Caucus results thread (11am-5pm ET)

[Mr. Morden]

The Virgin Islands caucuses today from 12-6pm local time (which is 11am-5pm ET).

https://www.facebook.com/VIRepublicanParty/posts/1055262691180083

CNN: http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/vi
NYT: http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/primaries/virgin-islands (note that they have the date wrong)
Virgin Islands Republican Party Twitter: https://twitter.com/VIGOP

To quote Erc from his delegates thread:

Delegate Allocation and Selection

Caucus attendees vote directly for delegate candidates on their ballots.  Each attendee gets six votes, and the top six vote-winners are duly elected.

Note that the ballot has 10 Carson delegates, 6 Cruz delegates, 3 Rubio delegates, 3 Trump delegates, and 20 Uncommitted delegates.  Trump, Rubio, and Kasich do not have full delegate slates.

So the only candidate who has a large enough slate to get a majority of the delegates here is Cruz.  A “win” for either Rubio or Trump would have to involve at least half of the delegates being Carson delegates or Uncommitted delegates.  Since Kasich has no delegate slate here whatsoever, a “win” for him would involve *all* of the delegates being Carson supporters or Uncommitted.

Anyway, post your commentary about this exciting contest in this thread.

[yankeesfan]

http://www.mlive.com/news/grand-rapids/index.ssf/2016/03/alleged_fraud_strips_gop_strat.html

This is a weird article.  What is going on in the US Virgin Islands?

-----

A Michigan political consultant who advised Rand Paul on his defunct presidential campaign is on the ballot today in the U.S. Virgin Islands despite allegedly lying about his residency in order to become a registered voter there.

John Yob, along with his wife and two others, have had their voter registrations nixed by election officials in the U.S. territory east of Puerto Rico.

Yet, the four of them remain on the GOP ballot for a Thursday, March 10, caucus that will elect delegates to attend this summer's Republican National Convention, where they could be a big factor in who becomes the party's nominee to the White House.

.......

"The free-agent delegations will have a lot of authority on the convention floor," said Yob, who is promoting a book he wrote about how to manipulate a contested convention. "There is momentum in the Virgin Islands to elect an uncommitted slate so they have more relevance."

[Landslide Lyndon]

It's insane that as few as 100 voters will send 6 delegates to the RNC.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

It's insane that it's perfectly possible for Carson to win this, claim momentum, and re-enter the race.

[Seriously?]

http://www.mlive.com/news/grand-rapids/index.ssf/2016/03/alleged_fraud_strips_gop_strat.html

This is a weird article.  What is going on in the US Virgin Islands?

-----

The GOP in the VI is a mess. The original caucus plan was submitted too late and rejected by the GOP. They had to revert to the 2012 rules. I'm shocked that Rubio, Trump and to a lesser extent Kasich did not have enough pledged delegates on the ballot, even if these delegates are of limited usefulness in the overall scheme of things.

[cinyc]

In the ongoing John Yob residency saga, a USVI judge granted a temporary restraining order to make the Yobs and Eilons registered voters, at least for now:
http://www.mlive.com/news/grand-rapids/index.ssf/2016/03/john_yob_virgin_islands.html

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

This reminds me of a quote for The Professor last time this happened. It was something like:

"It's no surprise Ron Paul won the Virgin Islands because most of his supporters are virgins."

[RI]

The funny thing is that there's no valid basis to say Paul won VI last time. Either Romney won it (more delegates and highest delegate slate) or Uncommitted won it (most total votes, and all of the Uncommitted delegates ended up voting for Romney). Not Paul.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

^^ Paul winning was based on disregarding uncommitted.

[RI]

^^ Paul winning was based on disregarding uncommitted.

Which is stupid.

[mds32]

What if Cruz (if he won) wins and then goes into the debate claiming "momentum" after his VI win? LOL

[Mr. Morden]

Polls should be closed now.  Robert Yoon of CNN says in this tweet that results aren't expected for another two hours or so.  How can it take that long to count a couple of hundred votes?

[cinyc]

Polls should be closed now.  Robert Yoon of CNN says in this tweet that results aren't expected for another two hours or so.  How can it take that long to count a couple of hundred votes?

Some of the votes might be absentees, which have to be verified.  And there are about 40 delegate candidates on the ballot, which might make it take longer to count.

[Seriously?]

What if Cruz (if he won) wins and then goes into the debate claiming "momentum" after his VI win? LOL

Well, Cruz is the only one that could technically "win" this that is in the race right now. The others didn't bother sending full delegate slates. The best Trump and Rubio could do is 50% of the delegate take. Kasich is automatically a loser.

I'd be really ironic if Uncommitted or Carson beat all of them.

[Mr. Morden]

What if Cruz (if he won) wins and then goes into the debate claiming "momentum" after his VI win? LOL

Well, Cruz is the only one that could technically "win" this that is in the race right now. The others didn't bother sending full delegate slates. The best Trump and Rubio could do is 50% of the delegate take. Kasich is automatically a loser.

50% of the delegate take could still be a win, if it was something like:

Trump 3
Cruz 1
Rubio 1
Uncommitted 1

[Seriously?]

What if Cruz (if he won) wins and then goes into the debate claiming "momentum" after his VI win? LOL

Well, Cruz is the only one that could technically "win" this that is in the race right now. The others didn't bother sending full delegate slates. The best Trump and Rubio could do is 50% of the delegate take. Kasich is automatically a loser.

50% of the delegate take could still be a win, if it was something like:

Trump 3
Cruz 1
Rubio 1
Uncommitted 1

True, but not for Rule 40(b). Bizarre rules here. You could basically vote for Trump, Rubio and Cruz at the same time.

[Erc]

Remember that there are also three unpledged RNC members from the Virgin Islands going to Cleveland, in addition to the 6 delegates elected today.  For Rule 40 purposes, theoretically winning two could be enough (or fewer, if at least two Uncommitted delegates are elected).

The only person who can win a Rule 40 victory here today outright is Cruz, who'd need to win at least 5 delegates to guarantee it.

[yankeesfan]

I'm guessing that they may release the results all at once, like the Maine caucus.

[Mr. Morden]

24 minutes ago, Decision Desk HQ tweeted this:

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/708070682433687552

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

24 minutes ago, Decision Desk HQ tweeted this:

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/708070682433687552

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Still nothing. DDHQ haven't been sitting on their laurels either.

[cinyc]

Anyone want to bet that the Yobs somehow engineered a victory with absentee ballots?

[cinyc]

Speaking of the yob.  From Twitter:
John Yob ‏@strategic  26m26 minutes ago
2 caucuses in USVI.  St Thomas/John results are in.  Looking great so far but St Croix 3x the votes.

[Mr. Morden]

Here are the results from St. Thomas:



Nothing yet from St. Croix.

[Classic Conservative]

So who's winning?

[ElectionsGuy]

So who's winning?

Looks like uncommited. LMAO