ABC/WaPo national poll: Clinton 50% Trump 41%

[Adam Griffin]

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This is factually inaccurate, unless you want to go all MoE or unless you're talking about 2008.

"Clinton has a 21-point lead over Trump among women, while Trump has a five-point edge among men. Along educational lines, white voters are sharply divided. Trump carries voters without college degrees by 57 to 33 percent; Clinton wins those with college degrees by 52 to 37 percent."

According to Teixeira, the split among white working-class/college-educated voters in 2012 was 44/56. It's likely that the latter will increase in size at expense of the former, but let's just assume they hold steady and then plug in those numbers above:

Share of White Vote:
Clinton: (52*0.56)+(33*0.44) = 43.6%
Trump: (37*0.56)+(57*0.44) = 45.8%

Clinton's winning 44% of the white vote in comparison to Trump's 46% in this poll. That's a far cry from Obama 2012 with 39-40% and Romney with 59-60%. Getting even close to that (with 10% of the electorate undecided, no less) potentially puts both the House and the Senate in danger of falling, as well as may open up potential pathways down the Atlantic and in the Southwest.

[Adam Griffin]

^^^ Just to follow-up with the math above, this is a scenario from RCP's PV/EV calculator (built around 2008/2012 performance by state). In this, I give Trump 80% of the undecided white vote remaining, which results in Trump winning 54% of the white vote; Clinton 46% (it's a two-way model). I then decrease non-white support for Democrats by a modest one point and leave turnout rates exactly where they were.

 

If you tweak black numbers to more closely resemble non-Obama candidates (both support and turnout), then GA & MO flip back into the R column - but both of those races are won by Trump by less than 2 points. That still leaves a 358-180 Clinton PV victory and a 11.6-point win in the PV.