Pennsylvania Poll: Bush over Kerry, 45-39

[NHPolitico]

HARRISBURG, Pa. - President Bush improved his numbers among prospective voters in Pennsylvania in the presidential race against Sen. John Kerry, according to a poll released Wednesday.

In a three-way race, Republican Bush is supported by 45 percent of the state's voters, compared with 39 percent for Democrat Kerry and 8 percent for consumer activist Ralph Nader, who is running as an independent, according to the poll by the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. The rest were undecided, wouldn't vote for any of them, or would vote for someone else.

Without Nader in the race, Bush would hold a 46-42 lead over Kerry, according to the independent, Connecticut-based institute.

In March, 44 percent of respondents supported Bush, compared with 40 percent for Kerry and 7 percent for Nader. Without Nader, Kerry and Bush ran even - with 45 percent and 44 percent respectively, the poll found.

Flexibility in the race remains, however, as 20 percent of voters said they could change their mind before the election.

Notably, approval of the war in Iraq slipped since the March poll from 52 percent to 49 percent, while disapproval rose from 39 percent to 45 percent, according to the poll. The war and terrorism rose in importance among election issues, although the economy remains the biggest concern among prospective voters, the poll showed.

Pennsylvania is a key battleground state in this year's presidential election with the nation's fifth-largest electoral prize. Al Gore beat Bush in Pennsylvania by more than 200,000 votes and the state last supported a Republican for president in 1988.

The institute surveyed 769 registered Pennsylvania voters by telephone between April 13 and April 19. The sampling error margin for the survey is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

[The Vorlon]

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x10972.xml

[??????????]

Things are sounding more and more on the UP for Mr. Bush as of late.

[The Vorlon]

Things are sounding more and more on the UP for Mr. Bush as of late.

Other than Missouri, Iowa, New Mexico and West Virginia our maps agree.

[??????????]

I have Iowa going dem and WVA going Republican on my new map.

[The Vorlon]

I have Iowa going dem and WVA going Republican on my new map.

are your EVs added correctly?

[Ben.]

Nader at 8%! I doubt that!... I would say Bush has the advantage in PA at this time... but any poll which places Nader at 8% should be taken with a fistful of salt imho... however what is interesting is how low Bush is in this poll despite being in the lead... but as i said while I think Bush proably has a lead in PA of say 2% at this time I really dont give much credence to this poll... Nader will get 8% in PA when hell freezes over!

[The Vorlon]

Nader at 8%! I doubt that!... I would say Bush has the advantage in PA at this time... but any poll which places Nader at 8% should be taken with a fistful of salt imho... however what is interesting is how low Bush is in this poll despite being in the lead... but as i said while I think Bush proably has a lead in PA of say 2% at this time I really dont give much credence to this poll... Nader will get 8% in PA when hell freezes over!

Result in Bush+4 in a two way race.

[Ben.]

Result in Bush+4 in a two way race.

I realise this however in the same poll Nader get 8%... such a result makes the whole poll suspect imho... come now, do you see it as realistic that 8% of people in PA will vote for Nader, do you even think that this is a realistic projection of who PA voters are currently thinking of voting for in November?...

[The Vorlon]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Hey..... You don't have to convince me, of all people, how shaky University polls are..

I think I am "fairly" clearly on the record on that matter.  Quinnipiac is the best however of an admittedly very shaky lot...

Actually, Nader getting 8% is an artifact of a very loose voter screen (this poll is REGISTERED voters not likely voters)

Notice how in the good polls (Gallup & Battleground for example) including Nader changes things by "about" 1 point in Bush's favor?

(Nader getting 1% seems "about" right IMHO) while in some polls including Nader changes things by 3 or 4%.. ?

the reason is very simple..

One very useful question that a few of the better polling firms use is something called the "unaided ballot," where the person is asked who they are going to vote for, but not given any names to pick from, ie the person has to volunteer an answer..

This is a cheap and dirty way to guage real candidate support.  A lot of people when given a list will kinda sorta pick a candidate, but in reality are undecided, not motivated, informed, or aware enough to vote...

Lets be rational here, if you cannot, unaided, actually name the candidate you are going to vote for, how "likely" a voter are you really...?

This is why Nader polls 5 or 6% - those people who are so tuned out the cannot even name Kerry or Bush as their candidate when presented with a list of three names will randomly pick Nader just so they have an answer to the question...

Registered voter polls including waaaaaay too many people as being "likely" - Turnout in 2000 was about 54.7%, the folks who know what they are doing think that 2004 might barely hit 60%

It is by virtue of including a bunch of tuned out folks in the poll that Nader gets 6%

If there is a "big" gap between the result with and without Nader, the poll is just simple casting too wide a net and letting a lot of tuned out people who won't actually vote.

Nader will net out costing Kerry maybe 1% or so, unless Bush has it "in the bag" on election day when a bunch of Deaniacs may protest vote for Nader.
 
 
 

[Ben.]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Hey..... You don't have to convince me, of all people, how shaky University polls are..

I think I am "fairly" clearly on the record on that matter.  Quinnipiac is the best however of an admittedly very shaky lot...

Actually, Nader getting 8% is an artifact of a very loose voter screen (this poll is REGISTERED voters not likely voters)

Notice how in the good polls (Gallup & Battleground for example) including Nader changes things by "about" 1 point in Bush's favor?

(Nader getting 1% seems "about" right IMHO) while in some polls including Nader changes things by 3 or 4%.. ?

the reason is very simple..

One very useful question that a few of the better polling firms use is something called the "unaided ballot," where the person is asked who they are going to vote for, but not given any names to pick from, ie the person has to volunteer an answer..

This is a cheap and dirty way to guage real candidate support.  A lot of people when given a list will kinda sorta pick a candidate, but in reality are undecided, not motivated, informed, or aware enough to vote...

Lets be rational here, if you cannot, unaided, actually name the candidate you are going to vote for, how "likely" a voter are you really...?

This is why Nader polls 5 or 6% - those people who are so tuned out the cannot even name Kerry or Bush as their candidate when presented with a list of three names will randomly pick Nader just so they have an answer to the question...

Registered voter polls including waaaaaay too many people as being "likely" - Turnout in 2000 was about 54.7%, the folks who know what they are doing think that 2004 might barely hit 60%

It is by virtue of including a bunch of tuned out folks in the poll that Nader gets 6%

If there is a "big" gap between the result with and without Nader, the poll is just simple casting too wide a net and letting a lot of tuned out people who won't actually vote.

Nader will net out costing Kerry maybe 1% or so, unless Bush has it "in the bag" on election day when a bunch of Deaniacs may protest vote for Nader.
 
 
 

Thanks for the explanation… so I take it that I should probably take this poll with a handy bag of salt then?... my guess is that either way Kerry and Bush are around 2 points apart either way, 4 points at the most with Bush probably enjoying the advantage and Nader probably sitting on around 1.5% solid support… but then again thats mostly gut feeling and a brife scan of the polls
       

[The Vorlon]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

University Poll = junk.

It is "almost" that simple.  The odd one is right now and then, in the same way that a broken clock shows the correct time twice a day, but thats about it.

Nader got 2.73% in 2000, mostly in states where it didn't matter.
He will be on fewer ballots this year, and is not the "Green" official candidate.

1 to 1.5% seems a "sane" guess on Nader.

Your "guess" of Bush +2 in Pennsylvania is about the same as my "guess"...

With the Spector/Toomey senate primary heating up, Penn is hard to poll right now as there is an asymetical "energy" factor with the GOP types being more tuned in.

Wait for the polls 2 weeks after the primary to get a better read on this state.

[ShapeShifter]

PA

2000 Results

Bush - 46
Dem - 51

2004 Poll

Bush - 45
Dem - 39
??? - 13???

This only confirms that Pennsylvania is a true toss up state.

[NHPolitico]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

University Poll = junk.

It is "almost" that simple.  The odd one is right now and then, in the same way that a broken clock shows the correct time twice a day, but thats about it.

Nader got 2.73% in 2000, mostly in states where it didn't matter.
He will be on fewer ballots this year, and is not the "Green" official candidate.

1 to 1.5% seems a "sane" guess on Nader.

Your "guess" of Bush +2 in Pennsylvania is about the same as my "guess"...

With the Spector/Toomey senate primary heating up, Penn is hard to poll right now as there is an asymetical "energy" factor with the GOP types being more tuned in.

Wait for the polls 2 weeks after the primary to get a better read on this state.

Is it possible that Nader is more popular when he isn't associated with a political party?

[The Vorlon]

PA

2000 Results

Bush - 46
Dem - 51

2004 Poll

Bush - 45
Dem - 39
- 13???

This only confirms that Pennsylvania is a true toss up state.

Ah.. rounding error.... I remembered PA as being a 4% state in 2000 not a 5% state...

2000

Gore = 50.60%   
Bush = 46.43%

Gore + 4.17%

4% state - Ok, my memory is not failing me... yet... I hope....

[Ben.]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

University Poll = junk.

It is "almost" that simple.  The odd one is right now and then, in the same way that a broken clock shows the correct time twice a day, but thats about it.

Nader got 2.73% in 2000, mostly in states where it didn't matter.
He will be on fewer ballots this year, and is not the "Green" official candidate.

1 to 1.5% seems a "sane" guess on Nader.

Your "guess" of Bush +2 in Pennsylvania is about the same as my "guess"...

With the Spector/Toomey senate primary heating up, Penn is hard to poll right now as there is an asymetical "energy" factor with the GOP types being more tuned in.

Wait for the polls 2 weeks after the primary to get a better read on this state.

I had been quick to rule Spectre as a lock for re-nomination even when others talked up the Toomey challenge however with these latest polls and looking at the news coverage Toomey would seem to have the “big mo” at the moment, added to this he has had some very savvy advertising of late (check the ads on his site, very good spots indeed)… In the end if this momentum behind Toomey keeps going a pace I would say that he should win, with some republicans who would vote for spectre staying home while conservatives come out and vote for Toomey allowing him to unseat Toomey…

A Toomey v Hoeffel would be a close race, however I think that in terms of press and money Hoeffel would have the advantage, Toomey has for weeks been referred to both nationally and state-wide as the “conservative” candidate, the “Ideological” candidate, the “Partisan” candidate even the “radical” candidate… it will be hard (though by no means impossible) for Toomey to overcome this popular (media instilled) perception of him… on top of this Toomey started this campaign with little money and he will fight Hoeffel with even less thanks largly to having had to fight tooth and nail against Spectre… Hoeffel can take on a candidate who has already been defined as a conservative and should be able relatively easily to define himself as the anti-Toomey and therefore the moderate candidate, if the perception of Toomey = radical, Hoeffel = moderate can be cemented in voters mind Hoeffel is a long way towards winning…another factor which would assist Hoeffel is that Toomey will emerge from this battle scathed and attacks launched by Spectre against Toomey from both the left and the right can be recycled by Hoeffel and used again… a Toomey v Hoeffel race would not be Hoeffel’s to lose, it could  be very competitive however Hoeffel would go into it with some solid advantages imho…

In a Hoeffel v Spectre race, the odds would have lessened for Hoeffel to score an upset with the field somewhat levelled to the Democrats advantage… Spectre would still enjoy the advantage but after a bloody primary fight and having had to spend a lot of money defeating Toomey and shifting to the right he has two big problems 1.) He has given up his moderate position somewhat and shifted (very publicly) to the right , which could have a negative impact amongst moderate voters, 2.) Spectre by winning could actually have alienated many conservative republicans who by now will have been so thoroughly convinced that Spectre is too liberal that they just wont get out and vote for him and this combined with point 1 could be a serious problem for Spectre even if he weathers this storm…

The impact on all of this on the Kerry v Bush race is hard to forecast will be interesting to see, as you say we’ll need to wait for some polls to come out after the republican primary (no matter who wins)… PA has a long history of ticket splitting and there would be no real reason from what I have seen to think that a Toomey win over Spectre would seriously damage Bush’s campaign in the state… however a Toomey win could be construed by many Pennsylvania voters as the right of the republican party taking out a candidate who was in sink with their views and replacing him with an ideologue this could have the nock on effect of tarring the rest of the GOP with the same brush in their eyes, including Bush/Cheney who’s attempt to appeal to moderate voters in the state could fall short as a result…in the end Toomey winning and falling behind Hoeffel should help Kerry although not radically so imho however it is too early to tell really…            

[ShapeShifter]

PA

2000 Results

Bush - 46
Dem - 51

2004 Poll

Bush - 45
Dem - 39
- 13???

This only confirms that Pennsylvania is a true toss up state.

Ah.. rounding error.... I remembered PA as being a 4% state in 2000 not a 5% state...

2000

Gore = 50.60%  
Bush = 46.43%

Gore + 4.17%

4% state - Ok, my memory is not failing me... yet... I hope....

sue me

[??????????]

I have Iowa going dem and WVA going Republican on my new map.

are your EVs added correctly?

Nope that's behind to.

[The Vorlon]

PA

2000 Results

Bush - 46
Dem - 51

2004 Poll

Bush - 45
Dem - 39
- 13???

This only confirms that Pennsylvania is a true toss up state.

Ah.. rounding error.... I remembered PA as being a 4% state in 2000 not a 5% state...

2000

Gore = 50.60%  
Bush = 46.43%

Gore + 4.17%

4% state - Ok, my memory is not failing me... yet... I hope....

sue me

More worried about my memory than anything else...

I hereby promise not to sue you

[pieman]

Would it be correct to assume that the GOP primary is driving up GOP likely voters?

Although I would like to believe that Bush is ahead by 6 in PA , I still expect PA to trend about 1% DEM in the end eventhough the GOP has had a registration gain here by 4% to make it an even 38-38. Party organization and get out the vote will likely be the difference in a state with relatively few independents.

A divisive GOP primary will likely hurt GOP GOTV.

[The Vorlon]

Would it be correct to assume that the GOP primary is driving up GOP likely voters?

Although I would like to believe that Bush is ahead by 6 in PA , I still expect PA to trend about 1% DEM in the end eventhough the GOP has had a registration gain here by 4% to make it an even 38-38. Party organization and get out the vote will likely be the difference in a state with relatively few independents.

A divisive GOP primary will likely hurt GOP GOTV.

Yes, primary jacks up GOP "likely" voters.

This poll is, however of Registered voters, so the "likely" bit does not come into play.

 Even in a registered voters poll a primary will still skew results a bit as "undecided republicans" will be more likely to be tuned in and thus say they are voting Bush, while "undecided democrats" will still be undecided.  Also, registration frives by the GOP candidates will enlarge the poll of registered Republicans as well.

Your GOTV point is fully valid.

I really think Bush made a mistake taking sides with Spector in this race.  I think Pennsylvania will be won on lost by the "ground game" of GOTV, and the GOP foot soldiers are mostly on the conservative side of the party.

[12th Doctor]

To be honest I acctually believe this poll (except the Nader thing, but most Nader votes are really undecideds).  I don't think that I need to rephrase all the reasons that I have given why PA is and almost certain Bush pick-up if he campaigns well here.  Also, compounding that, I believe that there is a genuine dislike for Kerry personaly in the Pittsburgh and "T" areas.  He totally clashes with the culture of the areas.

[TomAtPitt]

I wouldn't be so quick to doubt this poll.  The registered as opposed to likely is due to how distant the election is, the Specter-Toomey race by Quinnipac does use likely voters.

8% is high for Nader, but there are alot of anti-war type people in the Pittsburgh and Philly area that might not be happy with Kerry wanting to keep our troops in Iraq, that has caused many anti-war types to go for Nader.

[ShapeShifter]

To be honest I acctually believe this poll (except the Nader thing, but most Nader votes are really undecideds).  I don't think that I need to rephrase all the reasons that I have given why PA is and almost certain Bush pick-up if he campaigns well here.  Also, compounding that, I believe that there is a genuine dislike for Kerry personaly in the Pittsburgh and "T" areas.  He totally clashes with the culture of the areas.

Kerry is going to pick up Pennsylvania without a doubt. The big democratic cities are going to come through for him.

[12th Doctor]

To be honest I acctually believe this poll (except the Nader thing, but most Nader votes are really undecideds).  I don't think that I need to rephrase all the reasons that I have given why PA is and almost certain Bush pick-up if he campaigns well here.  Also, compounding that, I believe that there is a genuine dislike for Kerry personaly in the Pittsburgh and "T" areas.  He totally clashes with the culture of the areas.

Kerry is going to pick up Pennsylvania without a doubt. The big democratic cities are going to come through for him.

No they aren't.  "Without a doubt"?  Even I didn't say that.  I said that if Bush runs a good campaign.  Anyway, a I said, the Pittsburgh merto is going to go for Bush and the "T" will carry him in.