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  2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls
  FL/OH-Quinnipiac: FL: Clinton 62% Sanders 32%; OH: Clinton 52% Sanders 43%
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Author Topic: FL/OH-Quinnipiac: FL: Clinton 62% Sanders 32%; OH: Clinton 52% Sanders 43%  (Read 1366 times)
Mr. Morden
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« on: March 09, 2016, 06:02:49 am »

Quinnipiac polls of Florida and Ohio, conducted March 2-7:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2330

Florida
Clinton 62%
Sanders 32%

Ohio
Clinton 52%
Sanders 43%
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: March 09, 2016, 06:05:55 am »

FL is a lost cause for Sanders (closed primary, too many minorities).

OH is looking good though ...
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Skye
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« Reply #2 on: March 09, 2016, 06:14:03 am »

I don't take anything for granted after Michigan.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #3 on: March 09, 2016, 06:20:03 am »

Every analysis I read says that Sanders managed to upset Clinton in Michigan because he poured most of his resources there. He could do the same with Ohio but that risks him getting steamrolled in the other 3/15 states.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4 on: March 09, 2016, 06:23:34 am »

Every analysis I read says that Sanders managed to upset Clinton in Michigan because he poured most of his resources there. He could do the same with Ohio but that risks him getting steamrolled in the other 3/15 states.

Sanders could easily spend 40 Mio. $ in the Super 2.0 Tuesday states.

Because afterwards there are only small states for a while and his fundraising would pick up significantly anyway if he does well.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #5 on: March 09, 2016, 06:27:01 am »

Every analysis I read says that Sanders managed to upset Clinton in Michigan because he poured most of his resources there. He could do the same with Ohio but that risks him getting steamrolled in the other 3/15 states.

Sanders could easily spend 40 Mio. $ in the Super 2.0 Tuesday states.

Because afterwards there are only small states for a while and his fundraising would pick up significantly anyway if he does well.

It's not just money. Sanders had camped the entire week in Michigan and held rallies at every university campus in the state. Hard to do the same when 5 big states vote in just one week.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #6 on: March 09, 2016, 07:30:23 am »

Ohio and Missouri are his best shots for 3/15.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #7 on: March 09, 2016, 08:53:13 am »

Every analysis I read says that Sanders managed to upset Clinton in Michigan because he poured most of his resources there. He could do the same with Ohio but that risks him getting steamrolled in the other 3/15 states.

Sanders could easily spend 40 Mio. $ in the Super 2.0 Tuesday states.

Because afterwards there are only small states for a while and his fundraising would pick up significantly anyway if he does well.

It's not just money. Sanders had camped the entire week in Michigan and held rallies at every university campus in the state. Hard to do the same when 5 big states vote in just one week.

To be fair, Sanders was still doing events in Kansas and Nebraska up until last Friday. He only had 3 days to really blitz Michigan.

He's been in Florida the last two days (Miami yesterday, Kissimmee and Tampa today) as there will be a debate tonight back in Miami. I have to imagine today will be his last day in Florida. I have to imagine his time is going to be spread out pretty evenly between Illinois, Missouri (would love to see a poll from here), and Ohio over the next 5 days. Also I hope he doesn't completely give up on keeping the delegate margin closer in North Carolina. A rally in Asheville and the Research Triangle Area (or just heavily media spending in those areas) could help him not get blown out and maybe he could win some CDs.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #8 on: March 09, 2016, 10:09:28 am »

Every analysis I read says that Sanders managed to upset Clinton in Michigan because he poured most of his resources there. He could do the same with Ohio but that risks him getting steamrolled in the other 3/15 states.

Sanders could easily spend 40 Mio. $ in the Super 2.0 Tuesday states.

Because afterwards there are only small states for a while and his fundraising would pick up significantly anyway if he does well.

I just realized how obnoxious the Wisconsin TV markets will be following next week.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #9 on: March 09, 2016, 10:13:24 am »

Every analysis I read says that Sanders managed to upset Clinton in Michigan because he poured most of his resources there. He could do the same with Ohio but that risks him getting steamrolled in the other 3/15 states.

Sanders could easily spend 40 Mio. $ in the Super 2.0 Tuesday states.

Because afterwards there are only small states for a while and his fundraising would pick up significantly anyway if he does well.

It's not just money. Sanders had camped the entire week in Michigan and held rallies at every university campus in the state. Hard to do the same when 5 big states vote in just one week.

To be fair, Sanders was still doing events in Kansas and Nebraska up until last Friday. He only had 3 days to really blitz Michigan.

He's been in Florida the last two days (Miami yesterday, Kissimmee and Tampa today) as there will be a debate tonight back in Miami. I have to imagine today will be his last day in Florida. I have to imagine his time is going to be spread out pretty evenly between Illinois, Missouri (would love to see a poll from here), and Ohio over the next 5 days. Also I hope he doesn't completely give up on keeping the delegate margin closer in North Carolina. A rally in Asheville and the Research Triangle Area (or just heavily media spending in those areas) could help him not get blown out and maybe he could win some CDs.

Sanders should mostly stay out of FL. It's a trap. It has a very hostile, anti-Sanders electorate (Blacks, Hispanics, old women with a Hillary-fetish etc.) He should really spend more time in the winnable states such as OH and MO and some time in IL and NC instead.
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #10 on: March 09, 2016, 11:02:13 am »

New Poll: Florida President by Quinnipiac University on 2016-03-07

Summary:
Clinton:
62%
Sanders:
32%
Other:
0%
Undecided:
6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #11 on: March 09, 2016, 11:02:51 am »

New Poll: Ohio President by Quinnipiac University on 2016-03-07

Summary:
Clinton:
52%
Sanders:
43%
Other:
0%
Undecided:
5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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Dereich
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« Reply #12 on: March 09, 2016, 11:13:59 am »

Every analysis I read says that Sanders managed to upset Clinton in Michigan because he poured most of his resources there. He could do the same with Ohio but that risks him getting steamrolled in the other 3/15 states.

Sanders could easily spend 40 Mio. $ in the Super 2.0 Tuesday states.

Because afterwards there are only small states for a while and his fundraising would pick up significantly anyway if he does well.

It's not just money. Sanders had camped the entire week in Michigan and held rallies at every university campus in the state. Hard to do the same when 5 big states vote in just one week.

To be fair, Sanders was still doing events in Kansas and Nebraska up until last Friday. He only had 3 days to really blitz Michigan.

He's been in Florida the last two days (Miami yesterday, Kissimmee and Tampa today) as there will be a debate tonight back in Miami. I have to imagine today will be his last day in Florida. I have to imagine his time is going to be spread out pretty evenly between Illinois, Missouri (would love to see a poll from here), and Ohio over the next 5 days. Also I hope he doesn't completely give up on keeping the delegate margin closer in North Carolina. A rally in Asheville and the Research Triangle Area (or just heavily media spending in those areas) could help him not get blown out and maybe he could win some CDs.

I can't speak for the rest of the week, but Sanders will be doing a rally at University of Florida tomorrow.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #13 on: March 09, 2016, 11:39:00 am »

Every analysis I read says that Sanders managed to upset Clinton in Michigan because he poured most of his resources there. He could do the same with Ohio but that risks him getting steamrolled in the other 3/15 states.

Sanders could easily spend 40 Mio. $ in the Super 2.0 Tuesday states.

Because afterwards there are only small states for a while and his fundraising would pick up significantly anyway if he does well.

It's not just money. Sanders had camped the entire week in Michigan and held rallies at every university campus in the state. Hard to do the same when 5 big states vote in just one week.

To be fair, Sanders was still doing events in Kansas and Nebraska up until last Friday. He only had 3 days to really blitz Michigan.

He's been in Florida the last two days (Miami yesterday, Kissimmee and Tampa today) as there will be a debate tonight back in Miami. I have to imagine today will be his last day in Florida. I have to imagine his time is going to be spread out pretty evenly between Illinois, Missouri (would love to see a poll from here), and Ohio over the next 5 days. Also I hope he doesn't completely give up on keeping the delegate margin closer in North Carolina. A rally in Asheville and the Research Triangle Area (or just heavily media spending in those areas) could help him not get blown out and maybe he could win some CDs.

Sanders should mostly stay out of FL. It's a trap. It has a very hostile, anti-Sanders electorate (Blacks, Hispanics, old women with a Hillary-fetish etc.) He should really spend more time in the winnable states such as OH and MO and some time in IL and NC instead.

He is in a bind when it comes to Florida. If Clinton wins by 30 points then any eventual win in Missouri or Ohio will be a Pyrrhic one.
Just take under consideration that the delegate margin he accumulated with his 8 wins was wiped out just by her win in Texas.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #14 on: March 09, 2016, 11:50:49 am »

PTSD from Michigan nonwithstanding, there's no reason to think Hillary won't dominate FL. It's a closed primary in the region of the country where polls have actually underestimated HER consistently, and the demographics are pretty bad for Bernie.

Ohio, I'm definitely worried about that one now.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #15 on: March 09, 2016, 01:13:17 pm »

FL is a lost cause for Sanders (closed primary, too many minorities).

OH is looking good though ...

Since both are proportional selection, and Florida is bigger, there is potential for more gain in Florida, though it is probably critical to get a win in Ohio.
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Nhoj
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« Reply #16 on: March 09, 2016, 02:51:09 pm »

Every analysis I read says that Sanders managed to upset Clinton in Michigan because he poured most of his resources there. He could do the same with Ohio but that risks him getting steamrolled in the other 3/15 states.

Sanders could easily spend 40 Mio. $ in the Super 2.0 Tuesday states.

Because afterwards there are only small states for a while and his fundraising would pick up significantly anyway if he does well.

I just realized how obnoxious the Wisconsin TV markets will be following next week.
And radio which I will be forced to listen to at work...
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Clarko95
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« Reply #17 on: March 10, 2016, 03:53:03 pm »

I can't find the exact numbers for Bernie, but CMAG/Kantar Media reports that Hillary has spent $81,401 in the state, which amounts to 35% of all the funds spent by Democrats there.


Make what you will of this.
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