What the hell happened in Michigan?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

There must have been something wrong with the water.

[Oakvale]

I think the most likely answer here is boring - some kind of systemic polling issue. Michigan's not had a Democratic primary since 1992 so I could see there being issues with sampling etc. That's far more likely than Bernie suddenly surging/Hillary collapsing in the space of a few days for no reason.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Trade is going to kill Clinton in the Rust Belt.

Yeah, just like it did in 2008 in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Indiana.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

There must have been something wrong with the water.

Surely not! Hillary assures us that fracking is just fine!

[MK]

NAFTA is what happened.

It killed the middle class/worker class there.   Bernie was able to wrap that around Hillarys neck.


Then TPP is nafta part 2

[Gass3268]

Trade is going to kill Clinton in the Rust Belt.

Yeah, just like it did in 2008 in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Indiana.

Obama did not drive home that point as hard as Sanders has.

[ProudModerate2]

Cant believe the polls were that far off, though.
The RCP average showed Hillary by a 21.4 spread over Sanders.
The 3 most recent polls used by RCP were conducted between March 3rd and the 7th.
So they were all extremely recent polls .... I don't get it.
Very strange.

[justfollowingtheelections]

It was an amazing effort from everyone - Sanders put time & money, we thankfully had a debate & I know Sanders supporters were breaking phone-banking & canvassing records. Every last guy did an amazing job.

You can't kill passion & thankfully Michigan broke some voting record of stuff, some precincts went out of ballots.

Huge upset!

This is so true.  I have been attending meetings of Bernie supporters in Portland and I can tell you that for these people, Bernie winning the election has become a matter of life or death.  Bernie supporters are truly passionate and they (we) really want to make America a better country.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Trade is going to kill Clinton in the Rust Belt.

Yeah, just like it did in 2008 in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Indiana.

Obama did not drive home that point as hard as Sanders has.

Obviously you don't remember that campaign well.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Worth noting that Bernie has outperformed his polling in every non-Southern State so far except Nevada and Vermont (lol). Not sure if that's predictive of anything, but still a heartening pattern.

[Averroës Nix]

It was pretty heartbreaking for the Sanders campaign when they missed his "on track to win" benchmark in Vermont. You would think that 100% of the vote would be an easy target for a popular, long-serving Senator in a small state!

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

It was pretty heartbreaking for the Sanders campaign when they missed his "on track to win" benchmark in Vermont. You would think that 100% of the vote would be an easy target for a popular, long-serving Senator in a small state!

And his poor performance allowed Hillary to win 0 delegates in Vermont.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Worth noting that Bernie has outperformed his polling in every non-Southern State so far except Nevada and Vermont (lol). Not sure if that's predictive of anything, but still a heartening pattern.

That doesn't say much considering that for most of those states there was literally no polling (Colorado, Nebraska, Maine) or very little and of dubious quality (Kansas).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Worth noting that Bernie has outperformed his polling in every non-Southern State so far except Nevada and Vermont (lol). Not sure if that's predictive of anything, but still a heartening pattern.

That doesn't say much considering that for most of those states there was literally no polling (Colorado, Nebraska, Maine) or very little and of dubious quality (Kansas).

Iowa, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Oklahoma.

[jimrtex]

Hillary should have won it, the polls said she would, everybody thought she had it in the bag.  Now she's probably gonna lose.  Did dems cross over to vote for Kasich/Trump?  Did Clinton voters stay home because they thought their votes wouldn't matter?  Was the state infrastructure so bad in the metropolitan areas that it was just too difficult for a lot of black voters to go vote?  Did Canadians sneak across the border to vote for a fellow socialist?  Discuss.

Maybe there's something in the water.

[Hammy]

Hillary should have won it, the polls said she would, everybody thought she had it in the bag.  Now she's probably gonna lose.  Did dems cross over to vote for Kasich/Trump?  Did Clinton voters stay home because they thought their votes wouldn't matter?  Was the state infrastructure so bad in the metropolitan areas that it was just too difficult for a lot of black voters to go vote?  Did Canadians sneak across the border to vote for a fellow socialist?  Discuss.

Maybe there's something in the water.

Had to be the Canadians. Trump's looking at the wrong border

[Landslide Lyndon]

Ed Kilgore is skeptical that Sanders won because of his anti-trade stance.
Of the 58% of Democratic primary voters who said that trade kills jobs Sanders only got 58% of them.

[dax00]

Considering it was an open election, pollsters only ask "likely" (strictly Dem + older) voters, a large part of the disparity could've been accounted for, and the rest was up to voter motivation/luck.

[pho]

I thought Clinton had a really bad night at the debate. She defended NAFTA and the 90s crime bill in Flint, Michigan of all places. She underperformed the entire Detroit area as a result.

[Meclazine for Israel]

What happened is the people of Michigan decided, not CNN.

Bingo. Its amazing how the media takes the electorate for granted.

CNN is garbage infotainment.

And I hate to say it, but Australian online media is about the same level with less videos.

[angus]

everybody thought she had it in the bag.

The blue-collar workers of the upper midwest don't care for her politics.  Sanders should immediately roll into Illinois, Ohio and Missouri starting today talking about Clinton's past support for free trade agreements.  He'll have to work hard, though, because she clearly still has the edge.  Trade and jobs are the key, and he has called her agenda "disastrous" but he needs to turn up the heat.  

Also, she seems to have been reliant on black and other minority voters--after all, she is married to the First Black President of the United States--and Michigan is maybe 14% black.  In fact, if you look at the map, you can conclude that the black thing has been played out.  Maryland is the only one left which is more than 25% black I think, although NC and Delaware are around 20% each.
Who knows, maybe The Donald will have his nomination all set before Clinton does.

For her part, I do think she will retool her economic agenda.  Even if she wins--which is still the most likely outcome--she will need to co-opt much of the Bern in order to reach voters who feel betrayed by her and her husband's triangulation, and of free trade and the forces of globalization and deregulation.  In that way, Sanders will have perhaps had the effect many of his supporters desire.  The clinton people are playing it down--I saw a clip this morning showing her spokeswoman confidently saying that the race will be "competitive" through next week--but clearly she needs to rethink her economic agenda to secure the nomination in the next few weeks.

[Frodo]

This defeat will be good for Hillary in the long run -it will force her to confront Main Street's economic malaise more directly. 

[muon2]

Considering it was an open election, pollsters only ask "likely" (strictly Dem + older) voters, a large part of the disparity could've been accounted for, and the rest was up to voter motivation/luck.

Polling continues to be a problem, carrying over from 2012. Good polling is based in large part on identifying a representative sample of likely voters across all demographic groups. The decline of land line phone and the decreasing willingness of people to take surveys over the phone make it hard to assemble a useful sample. Pollsters have also seen that the historic qualities that identify likely voters from registered voters don't predict voter behavior as well as they once did.

[KingSweden]

This defeat will be good for Hillary in the long run -it will force her to confront Main Street's economic malaise more directly. 

Agreed. Better she face her considerable flaws and weaknesses now rather than in October.

[Wiz in Wis]

Considering it was an open election, pollsters only ask "likely" (strictly Dem + older) voters, a large part of the disparity could've been accounted for, and the rest was up to voter motivation/luck.

Polling continues to be a problem, carrying over from 2012. Good polling is based in large part on identifying a representative sample of likely voters across all demographic groups. The decline of land line phone and the decreasing willingness of people to take surveys over the phone make it hard to assemble a useful sample. Pollsters have also seen that the historic qualities that identify likely voters from registered voters don't predict voter behavior as well as they once did.

^^^^^^
THIS