Democrats "expand the map"

[nini2287]

I would say my top 10 choices (in alphabetical/chronological order) for a pickup

CO-3 Marilyn Musgrave
CT-2 Rob Simmons
CT-4 Chris Shays (unfortunetly)
IN-8 John Hostettler
IA-1 Jim Nussle (open)
MN-6 Mark Kennedy (open)
NC-11 Charles Taylor (any bets on Heath Ledger?)
PA-6 Jim Gerlach
PA-8 Mike Fitzpatrick
TX-22 Tom DeLay
WA-8 Dave Reichert (the chance might have been blown)

[tinman64]

Dems hope to possibly make Pombo's seat in CA competitive in '06.  They are hoping that state senator Mike Machado will run against him.  Machado won re-election to the state senate in '04 by beating Stockton mayor Gary Podesto in a heated race.   Pombo is not well liked by many in his district for some of his stances on environmental issues.

If Machado loses against Pombo, the Dems will still have him in the state senate, and a competitive race could mean trouble for Pombo in '08 if he survives '06. 

[nini2287]

Dems hope to possibly make Pombo's seat in CA competitive in '06.  They are hoping that state senator Mike Machado will run against him.  Machado won re-election to the state senate in '04 by beating Stockton mayor Gary Podesto in a heated race.   Pombo is not well liked by many in his district for some of his stances on environmental issues.

If Machado loses against Pombo, the Dems will still have him in the state senate, and a competitive race could mean trouble for Pombo in '08 if he survives '06. 

Sounds like we're doing the same thing in PA with Tim Murphy's seat using State Sen. Sean Logan.

[jravnsbo]

What would the crowd here say are the top 10 DEMOCRAT seats that are vulnerable?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Off the top of my head I'd guess that the GA re-redistricting might make a seat down there look vunerable, but I've not been following that all that much.

I'd take a guess that the most vunerable Dem incumbent is Chet Edwards... thing is the Democrats aren't likely to lose that many House seats even if there's another swing against them; most of the naturally marginal seats currently have GOP congressmen.

Mind you... most seats that flip will be open 'uns.

[zorkpolitics]

What would the crowd here say are the top 10 DEMOCRAT seats that are vulnerable?

Redistricting:
Georgia   3   Jim Marshall

Democratic Campaign Committees self identified most vulnerable:
Colorado 3   John Salazar
Illinois   8    Melissa Bean
Iowa   3   Leonard Boswell
Kansas   4   Dennis Moore
Louisiana 3   Charles Melancon
New York 27   Brian Higgins
South Dakota AL   Stephanie Herseth
Texas   17    Chet Edwards
Utah   2   Jim Matheson

[WMS]

Of the top of my head, CT and IA have 2-3 pickup possibilities each,  CO and PA have 1-2, and NM, IN, KY, NY each have 1.

Not yet. Wait for the seat to become open, which will happen when one of the NM Senators retires, then things get insane over here.

[King]

Of the top of my head, CT and IA have 2-3 pickup possibilities each,  CO and PA have 1-2, and NM, IN, KY, NY each have 1.

Not yet. Wait for the seat to become open, which will happen when one of the NM Senators retires, then things get insane over here.

Too bad the NM Governor race isn't in 2008, then you could have something interesting when Billy loses the Dem primary and it is an open seat.

[Sam Spade]

Off the top of my head I'd guess that the GA re-redistricting might make a seat down there look vunerable, but I've not been following that all that much.

I'd take a guess that the most vunerable Dem incumbent is Chet Edwards... thing is the Democrats aren't likely to lose that many House seats even if there's another swing against them; most of the naturally marginal seats currently have GOP congressmen.

Mind you... most seats that flip will be open 'uns.

I was really surprised that Chet survived last time.  I think it was only because the GOP ran a real extremist (even by my standards) against him.  I mean, his House seat voted like 60-40 to 67-33 for Bush (forget how much), and DeLay actually added more Republican areas to his CD.  As usual, there's always going to be a good chance he'll be defeated, next time won't be any different.

Let me start off by deflating a few Democrat balloons on this board, as well as some Republicans. (as I am want to do being the realist around here)

Simply put, let me predict that DeLay's seat will only go Democrat in this election if the Democrats take over the House.  Obviously neither is very likely, but it will take that type of turnaround to put his seat in any danger.

[TeePee4Prez]

What would the crowd here say are the top 10 DEMOCRAT seats that are vulnerable?

Redistricting:
Georgia   3   Jim Marshall

Democratic Campaign Committees self identified most vulnerable:
Colorado 3   John Salazar
Illinois   8    Melissa Bean
Iowa   3   Leonard Boswell
Kansas   4   Dennis Moore
Louisiana 3   Charles Melancon
New York 27   Brian Higgins
South Dakota AL   Stephanie Herseth
Texas   17    Chet Edwards
Utah   2   Jim Matheson

Surprised no one has said PA 13.   EMILY's List thinks it is along with Melissa Bean and Debbie Stabenow's Senate seat.

[Keystone Phil]

Surprised no one has said PA 13.   EMILY's List thinks it is along with Melissa Bean and Debbie Stabenow's Senate seat.

Bean's seat is in trouble but why would they think PA 13 is? We all know that I want Schwartz out of office but she's likely to win re-election. I'd really like to know their reasoning behind PA 13 being a seat that's in trouble. I hope they're right. 

[TeePee4Prez]

Surprised no one has said PA 13.   EMILY's List thinks it is along with Melissa Bean and Debbie Stabenow's Senate seat.

Bean's seat is in trouble but why would they think PA 13 is? We all know that I want Schwartz out of office but she's likely to win re-election. I'd really like to know their reasoning behind PA 13 being a seat that's in trouble. I hope they're right. 

My question is why would EMILY's List drain resources into this seat while they can use that money in PA 6 for Lois Murphy?  If the scenario were Castor, O'Brien, or Taylor, I could see EMILY's List needing to put up some cash, but otherwise use it elsewhere.

[Jake]

EMILY's List is also made up off pro-abortion pyschos that make Mengele look like Jesus Christ. I wouldn't put too much stock in their knowledge of politics.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

EMILY's List is also made up off pro-abortion pyschos that make Mengele look like Jesus Christ. I wouldn't put too much stock in their knowledge of politics.

Removed the bit about Mengele and I agree. Groups like that (and equivilent pro-life groups) have a significants waaaaay outta all proportion...

[TeePee4Prez]

EMILY's List is also made up off pro-abortion pyschos that make Mengele look like Jesus Christ. I wouldn't put too much stock in their knowledge of politics.

Are you psycho?  Comparing EMILY's List to Mengele, are you serious?  They win races and could very well do Pat Toomey in if he were to run in 2010. 

[Keystone Phil]

EMILY's List is also made up off pro-abortion pyschos that make Mengele look like Jesus Christ. I wouldn't put too much stock in their knowledge of politics.

They win races and could very well do Pat Toomey in if he were to run in 2010. 

They will be what helps him win. In a race against Schwartz, Toomey makes abortion an issue and that doesn't help the EMILY's list crowd in statewide races here.

[TeePee4Prez]

EMILY's List is also made up off pro-abortion pyschos that make Mengele look like Jesus Christ. I wouldn't put too much stock in their knowledge of politics.

They win races and could very well do Pat Toomey in if he were to run in 2010. 

They will be what helps him win. In a race against Schwartz, Toomey makes abortion an issue and that doesn't help the EMILY's list crowd in statewide races here.

I wouldn't be sooo cocky.  Ask Spencer Abraham what happened to him after being up 17 in the polls in 2000.  PA and MI have very similar politics!

[Jake]

EMILY's List is also made up off pro-abortion pyschos that make Mengele look like Jesus Christ. I wouldn't put too much stock in their knowledge of politics.

Are you psycho?  Comparing EMILY's List to Mengele, are you serious?  They win races and could very well do Pat Toomey in if he were to run in 2010. 

You know what, you're right. They are more like Rudolf Hoess in that they only support the killing of children rather than actually do it. I sure wouldn't be happy knowing my Congresscritter was elected with the help of money reeled in from killing children.

[Keystone Phil]

I sure wouldn't be happy knowing my Congresscritter was elected with the help of money reeled in from killing children.

And she got involved in politics by starting a "woman's center" (abortion clinic).

[Jake]

Certainly doesn't suprise me at all to hear that.

[TeePee4Prez]

I sure wouldn't be happy knowing my Congresscritter was elected with the help of money reeled in from killing children.

And she got involved in politics by starting a "woman's center" (abortion clinic).

Aww, aren't you bitter about U.S. Rep. Allyson Schwartz being elected.  I hear the primoridal cries in Politics PA from Northeast Philadelphians as well.  Did you know there was a Draft O'Brien movement going on in there for a while?

[TeePee4Prez]

EMILY's List is also made up off pro-abortion pyschos that make Mengele look like Jesus Christ. I wouldn't put too much stock in their knowledge of politics.

Are you psycho?  Comparing EMILY's List to Mengele, are you serious?  They win races and could very well do Pat Toomey in if he were to run in 2010. 

You know what, you're right. They are more like Rudolf Hoess in that they only support the killing of children rather than actually do it. I sure wouldn't be happy knowing my Congresscritter was elected with the help of money reeled in from killing children.

EMILY's List are freedom fighters!  They support a woman's right to CHOOSE!  Believe me they counteract the facist American Life League and Operation Rescue.  They have as much legitmacy as them.

[Jake]

I'll say the same thing I did to nclib, cut off your dick or stop whoring off the the "women's movement" in this country.

[Keystone Phil]

I sure wouldn't be happy knowing my Congresscritter was elected with the help of money reeled in from killing children.

And she got involved in politics by starting a "woman's center" (abortion clinic).

Aww, aren't you bitter about U.S. Rep. Allyson Schwartz being elected. 

Sorry for pointing out facts, Flyers. And no, I did not hear about the Draft O'Brien cries. If he got in the race though, you guys might be the ones who end up crying.

[TeePee4Prez]

I sure wouldn't be happy knowing my Congresscritter was elected with the help of money reeled in from killing children.

And she got involved in politics by starting a "woman's center" (abortion clinic).

Aww, aren't you bitter about U.S. Rep. Allyson Schwartz being elected. 

Sorry for pointing out facts, Flyers. And no, I did not hear about the Draft O'Brien cries. If he got in the race though, you guys might be the ones who end up crying.

Good luck west of the Boulevard or in Montco.  Will he keep his Chief of Staff with him if he were elected to Congress?