Republican MI/MS/ID/HI election results thread (first results @8pm ET)

[Lief 🗽]

you guys hear that?

you guys hear that low rumble in the distance?

what is that?

could it be the sound of TRUMP winning a CLOSED CAUCUS?!

DECISIVE AND TRIUMPHANT.

[Bigby]

Cruz could have done a lot better, but he still has plenty of skin in the game. Rubio REALLY ought to drop out in the afternoon.

[Seriously?]

Cruz could have done a lot better, but he still has plenty of skin in the game. Rubio REALLY ought to drop out in the afternoon.

Rubio's on track to get his participation delegate from Hawaii as long as the Trump/Cruz lead doesn't widen and Kasich doesn't jump ahead of him statewide.

[MK]

Trump is what probably could be said, the most socially liberal POTENTIAL nominee (unless you count Romney as such during his Senatorial and Gubernatorial races and career) in probably the history of the GOP. Normally defending PP is a death sentence in the primary but it's not hurting Trump. Also he never really speaks about LGBT issues but in the past has been pro-SSM

Neo-Trump has not directly addressed practically any social issue. The old Trump is basically non-existent.

He wont because unlike Cruz he realizes he does not want to be put in a corner for a GE.   the Dems wont be able to scare people into thinking hes going to take away rights.    Cruz on the other hand will be framed as such.

[pppolitics]

Impressive how Trump won another caucus.

[Bigby]

Cruz could have done a lot better, but he still has plenty of skin in the game. Rubio REALLY ought to drop out in the afternoon.

Rubio's on track to get his participation delegate from Hawaii as long as the Trump/Cruz lead does widen and Kasich doesn't jump ahead of him statewide.

Then it would be the ONLY place tonight where he won anything whatsoever.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

It's ok Lief, we know you'll be back in Hilldawg's camp this fall

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Trump is what probably could be said, the most socially liberal POTENTIAL nominee (unless you count Romney as such during his Senatorial and Gubernatorial races and career) in probably the history of the GOP. Normally defending PP is a death sentence in the primary but it's not hurting Trump. Also he never really speaks about LGBT issues but in the past has been pro-SSM

And this is a bad thing? Even if you want to turn the nation right on these things, winning the election and appointing favorable judges is the most important step in that. You cannot do that if you are running on the Akin-Mourdoch Abortion platform like Cruz and Rubio are.

[justfollowingtheelections]

so I wonder who wins the DC caucus now that support for Rubio has collapsed.  Rubio and possibly Kasich will be gone on the 15th.  If Kasich loses Ohio, we have to wait and see if the establishment will support Cruz or let Trump win the nomination.

[yourelection]

Tump dominated the primaries today. Rubio, no matter how well he does in Florida, is so far behind that his chances of getting the nomination are as good as none.

More at: http://www.yourelection.net/2016/03/march-8-primaries-2016/

[Bigby]

so I wonder who wins the DC caucus now that support for Rubio has collapsed.  Rubio and possibly Kasich will be gone on the 15th.  If Kasich loses Ohio, we have to wait and see if the establishment will support Cruz or let Trump win the nomination.

If the Establishment has to choose between a nationalistic populist and a strict constitutionalists, then the insurgency has won.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Trump appears to be on track for a seventh state with a delegation majority.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

you guys hear that?

you guys hear that low rumble in the distance?

what is that?

could it be the sound of TRUMP winning a CLOSED CAUCUS?!

DECISIVE AND TRIUMPHANT.

Funny... This: http://youtu.be/_Zk6eXvCiuo is all that I can hear when Trump wins.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Trump is what probably could be said, the most socially liberal POTENTIAL nominee (unless you count Romney as such during his Senatorial and Gubernatorial races and career) in probably the history of the GOP. Normally defending PP is a death sentence in the primary but it's not hurting Trump. Also he never really speaks about LGBT issues but in the past has been pro-SSM

And this is a bad thing? Even if you want to turn the nation right on these things, winning the election and appointing favorable judges is the most important step in that. You cannot do that if you are running on the Akin-Mourdoch Abortion platform like Cruz and Rubio are.

I'm VERY socially liberal and have gotten into arguments with other R's on this forum over that, come on Yankee you know better.

[MK]

so I wonder who wins the DC caucus now that support for Rubio has collapsed.  Rubio and possibly Kasich will be gone on the 15th.  If Kasich loses Ohio, we have to wait and see if the establishment will support Cruz or let Trump win the nomination.

IF they are smart they will just get on their knees like Mittens did.     I'm sure Trump has a few openings.

[Seriously?]

Trump appears to be on track for a seventh state with a delegation majority.

Yep. It's looking like Trump 11, Cruz 7, Rubio 1 right now.

Trump wins CD-1 and CD-2 over second place Cruz, giving him 2 delegates to Cruz's 1.
Trump gets 2 of the 3 RNC delegates.
Trump gets 5 of the statewide delegates, Cruz 4, Rubio is left with 1 due to rounding.

Cruz needs to fall below 30% to give Rubio an extra delegate.
Cruz needs to get to 40% to shut Rubio out. (Assuming Trump remains in the 40s)
Trump has to get over 50% to shut out Rubio. (Assuming Cruz remains in the 30s)
Rubio loses the delegate if he falls behind Kasich.

So it's looking like a participation delegate and nothing more for Little Marco... Embarrassing.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Trump is what probably could be said, the most socially liberal POTENTIAL nominee (unless you count Romney as such during his Senatorial and Gubernatorial races and career) in probably the history of the GOP. Normally defending PP is a death sentence in the primary but it's not hurting Trump. Also he never really speaks about LGBT issues but in the past has been pro-SSM

And this is a bad thing? Even if you want to turn the nation right on these things, winning the election and appointing favorable judges is the most important step in that. You cannot do that if you are running on the Akin-Mourdoch Abortion platform like Cruz and Rubio are.

I'm VERY socially liberal and have gotten into arguments with other R's on this forum over that, come on Yankee you know better.

You said it like it was a bad thing though.

[Erc]

Trump appears to be on track for a seventh state with a delegation majority.

Yep. It's looking like Trump 11, Cruz 7, Rubio 1 right now.

Trump wins CD-1 and CD-2 over second place Cruz, giving him 2 delegates to Cruz's 1.
Trump gets 2 of the 3 RNC delegates.
Trump gets 5 of the statewide delegates, Cruz 4, Rubio is left with 1 due to rounding.

Cruz needs to fall below 30% to give Rubio an extra delegate.
Cruz needs to get to 40% to shut Rubio out. (Assuming Trump remains in the 40s)
Trump has to get over 50% to shut out Rubio. (Assuming Cruz remains in the 30s)
Rubio loses the delegate if he falls behind Kasich.

So it's looking like a participation delegate and nothing more for Little Marco... Embarrassing.

Apart from the Green Papers saying it's the case, I see no reason to believe the RNC members are apportioned separately from the other At-Large delegates, so I'm sticking with my 10-7-2 call.

[/]

Rubio got Trumped.

[Mr. Morden]

Current national popular vote, from all primaries/caucuses to date:

Trump 35%
Cruz 29%
Rubio 19%
Kasich 9%
Carson 5%
Bush 1%

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Current national popular vote, from all primaries/caucuses to date:

Trump 35%
Cruz 29%
Rubio 19%
Kasich 9%
Carson 5%
Bush 1%

Isn't that double the Trump/Cruz margin from before yesterday's votes?

[Mr. Morden]

Current national popular vote, from all primaries/caucuses to date:

Trump 35%
Cruz 29%
Rubio 19%
Kasich 9%
Carson 5%
Bush 1%

Isn't that double the Trump/Cruz margin from before yesterday's votes?

No, not even close.  Before yesterday, it was Trump 34% Cruz 29%.  Now it's Trump 35% Cruz 29%.  So Trump's moved up slightly.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Note that Trump really killed it in the Detroit region. And note what kind of people tend to vote in Republican primaries in that area.

[RI]

Comparing D vs. R turnout against the 2012 general election:



We can pretty clearly see that any realignment due to Trump would not likely occur in the Detroit metro area itself, but in the thumb, the top right quarter of the mitt, and along the Ohio/Indiana border. St. Clair County and Huron County were ground zero for swing to the GOP and strong Trump performances.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Surprised that the Detroit area (along with other heavily black areas) held up better than the rest of the State for Democrat. In itself, this would have favored Hillary, but I get the feeling that increased turnout there is what allowed Bernie to win.