KY House Special Elections End Up Not Resulting in GOP Majority
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  KY House Special Elections End Up Not Resulting in GOP Majority
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Author Topic: KY House Special Elections End Up Not Resulting in GOP Majority  (Read 6143 times)
Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #25 on: March 08, 2016, 08:15:36 PM »

Everyone said it couldn't be done.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #26 on: March 08, 2016, 08:22:15 PM »

I guess people get to keep their healthcare for a little longer.
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #27 on: March 08, 2016, 09:01:30 PM »

Smiley
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Virginiá
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« Reply #28 on: March 08, 2016, 11:59:04 PM »

AHA

Suck it Bevin!
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Virginiá
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« Reply #29 on: March 09, 2016, 03:58:06 PM »

Really did not expect to see Dems picking up Romney seats in KY in this environment!

Now the question is - Can they hold these seats this November? I don't have the numbers, but I'm sure turnout was extremely low for this special election, even by Kentucky levels.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #30 on: March 09, 2016, 04:50:06 PM »

Now the question is - Can they hold these seats this November? I don't have the numbers, but I'm sure turnout was extremely low for this special election, even by Kentucky levels.

For a special election in Kentucky, turnout was stunningly high.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #31 on: March 09, 2016, 04:55:27 PM »

If it were anywhere less rural or further from Appalachia, I would say yes with Trump vs. Clinton at the top of the ticket.  But in KY, Trump could bring out conservadems in unprecedented numbers and there aren't as many traditionally Republican suburbs to counter that.  If Cruz is the nominee, they will likely hold.  If it's Trump, it's 50/50 at best for them.

I think Trump is just a drag on the whole Republican ticket.
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #32 on: March 09, 2016, 06:44:40 PM »

Mega FFs!
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Frodo
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« Reply #33 on: March 10, 2016, 08:54:13 AM »

Yeah, it looks like 2018 (not 2016) will be the year Republicans finally make their breakthrough in the House.  
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #34 on: March 10, 2016, 10:47:35 AM »

Yeah, it looks like 2018 (not 2016) will be the year Republicans finally make their breakthrough in the House.  

I don't think it'll happen at all. Ever.

By 2018, we might not even have a Republican Party.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #35 on: March 10, 2016, 12:39:20 PM »

Yeah, it looks like 2018 (not 2016) will be the year Republicans finally make their breakthrough in the House.  

By 2018, we might not even have a Republican Party.

LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOL

If 1964 couldn't permanently end the Republican party, 2016 won't either. And TRUMP has a credible path to GE victory anyways.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #36 on: March 10, 2016, 01:02:25 PM »

If 1964 couldn't permanently end the Republican party, 2016 won't either.

Goldwater was nothing like Trump.
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #37 on: March 10, 2016, 01:38:47 PM »

Yeah, it looks like 2018 (not 2016) will be the year Republicans finally make their breakthrough in the House.  
It'll fall eventually, but hopefully by the time it does the KY GOP will have fully evolved in to Trump type populists who won't take away their health care at the first opportunity.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #38 on: March 14, 2016, 03:16:29 AM »

"We're going to put a lot of coal miners and coal companies out of business."

In a 1990 Playboy interview, Donald Trump said, "The coal miner gets black lung disease, his son gets it, then his son. If I had been the son of a coal miner, I would have left the damn mines. But most people don’t have the imagination - or whatever - to leave their mine. They don't have 'it.'"

Checkmate.
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #39 on: March 14, 2016, 06:05:48 AM »

"We're going to put a lot of coal miners and coal companies out of business."

In a 1990 Playboy interview, Donald Trump said, "The coal miner gets black lung disease, his son gets it, then his son. If I had been the son of a coal miner, I would have left the damn mines. But most people don’t have the imagination - or whatever - to leave their mine. They don't have 'it.'"

Checkmate.

Yes, but that's Donald Trump. Since when has Donald Trump saying anything ever hurt him?
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #40 on: March 15, 2016, 02:43:14 PM »

Really did not expect to see Dems picking up Romney seats in KY in this environment!

Now the question is - Can they hold these seats this November? I don't have the numbers, but I'm sure turnout was extremely low for this special election, even by Kentucky levels.

Low turnout hurts Democrats. 
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Virginiá
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« Reply #41 on: March 15, 2016, 02:53:53 PM »


Sometimes it does, sometimes it doesn't. There are several reasons why low turnout hurts Democrats in most areas of America. Suffice to say, Kentucky used to be a place where the people most likely to show up at the polls actually voted for Democrats. However, those people have been slowly transitioning to the Republican party for years now.

Also worth noting is that the Kentucky GOP now seems more motivated to increase turnout for their own benefit, as they now believe higher turnout will help them more - At least given that some are trying to move state elections to presidential election years to increase turnout.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #42 on: March 19, 2016, 07:05:08 PM »

Low turnout helps Democrats in Appalachian Kentucky and West Virginia. I don't think it helps in many places throughout the South in general (maybe in states like Mississippi at the county level; see my sig), but there's a pretty strong correlation between higher turnout and it hurting the historically/ancestrally dominant party in a given area. Once that dynamic flips, it tends to no longer apply...but it hasn't completely flipped yet in places like KY & WV.

When you have low turnout, then that means it's mostly the oldest and most reliable voters who are voting, and in places like KY & WV, those people are the most adamantly Democratic ones remaining - just look at Conway's performance by age in Kentucky. There are obviously counter-currents to this as well, but the dynamic largely holds true. KY and WV both will become even more Republican as the 65+ group dies off.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #43 on: March 20, 2016, 12:34:43 AM »

Hasn't turnout in WV steadily declined as it's voted more R?
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rbt48
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« Reply #44 on: March 21, 2016, 09:51:39 PM »

Republicans can perhaps blame Rand Paul for not holding the seat they had and not picking up the other two.  If Paul hadn't directed that the Primary be switched to a caucus so he could still run for reelection to the Senate, I'm guessing that these special legislative elections would have coincided with the Presidential Primary.  With the much larger turnout, Republicans might well have taken all four seats.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #45 on: March 21, 2016, 10:19:26 PM »

I think the caucuses helped the GOP. Electioneering laws don't apply at caucuses, so the candidates were allowed to campaign there.
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windjammer
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« Reply #46 on: March 22, 2016, 05:36:12 AM »

Republicans can perhaps blame Rand Paul for not holding the seat they had and not picking up the other two.  If Paul hadn't directed that the Primary be switched to a caucus so he could still run for reelection to the Senate, I'm guessing that these special legislative elections would have coincided with the Presidential Primary.  With the much larger turnout, Republicans might well have taken all four seats.
http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/KY/59576/163129/Web01/en/summary.html

There was only 1 seat where it was a close margin. It wouldn't have changed many things.
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Frodo
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« Reply #47 on: March 25, 2016, 07:04:26 PM »

The Kentucky GOP now has a fundraising advantage over their Democratic counterparts. 
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #48 on: March 25, 2016, 07:31:15 PM »

The Kentucky GOP now has a fundraising advantage over their Democratic counterparts. 

Don't they always?
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Frodo
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« Reply #49 on: March 25, 2016, 07:41:33 PM »


No.  Until this year, Democrats nearly always dominated their Republican counterparts.  Just last year nearly every Democrat had a fundraising advantage. 
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